2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、Disclaimer&DisclosuresThisreptmustbereadwiththedisclosurestheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendixwiththeDisclaimerwhichfmspartofit.Issuerofrept:HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat::www.research.?????A

2、globaltradewarthreatmaybeadominantthemefJunepromptingustogoshtAUDJPY?WeremainbullishtheUSDonatradewarrelatedsafehavenbidaFedstillcontenttonmalizepolicyasplanned?GBPcouldbeespeciallyvulnerablegivenkeypoliticaleventsduring

3、June.Westilltarget1.3150onGBPUSDWewerenervousinlastmonth’sFXTacticianwhenfecastinganextensionoftheUSDrally.Wearenervousagainthismonth.AfteralltheUSDhasalreadystrengthenedquitefarquitequickly.Butournervousnessechoedinques

4、tionsfromcolleaguesclientsalikeaboutwhethernowisthetimetoplayfareversalweakerintheUSDinfactgivesusgreaterconfidencethatthisUSDrallystillhaslegs.AswhentheconsensusbelatedlyagreeswithourUSDbullishstancethenwewouldhavetrueg

5、roundsfnervousness.FnowwestillfavplayingUSDbullishnessagainstGBPtargeting1.3150.JuneisakeymonthfBrexitdevelopmentswithparliamentaryvoteson“softBrexit”amendmentstotheUK’slegislationfBrexit(theEUWithdrawalBill).Inadditiont

6、hegovernmenthaspromisedtodeliveradetaileddeionofitsBrexitplanaheadofacriticalEUsummitattheendofthemonth.UncertaintylookslikelytobeelevatedsupptingourGBPbearishview.AnotherkeyfocusfJunewillbeontradewardevelopments.Themont

7、hbeganwithashiftfromcombativerheticfromtheUSadministrationtoanactualincreaseintariffs.TheweeksaheadcouldbringretaliationinatitftatescalationthatcouldalsoseeUSChinatraderelationsbecomethefocuswhentheUSannouncesnewdetailso

8、nproposedtariffsinvestmentcurbs.Itpointstoa“riskoff”environmentthatwouldfavtheJPYtheUSDchallengetradesensitivecurrenciessuchastheAUD.Traderecommendation:SellAUDJPY@83.90target80.50stop85.10TheFedECBmeetingswillbeamajfixa

9、tionalso.TheFedremainscomftablewithitsnmalizationprocessbutpoliticaluncertaintyinEuropealackofclarityonthegrowthoutlookmayfcetheECBtodelayanysignificantpolicyannouncementsuntilJulyevenSeptember.Thedivergenceinpolicyclari

10、tycouldseeEURUSDtest1.15againalthoughwethinkitmayholdfnow.ElsewherewearenegativeontheNZDCADneutralontheSEKCHFbullishontheNOK.DaraghMaherHeadofFXStrategyUSHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.daragh.maher@us.12125254114DavidBloomGlobal

11、HeadofFXResearchHSBCBankplcdavid.bloom@442079915969MarkMcDonaldHeadofFXQuantitativeStrategyHSBCBankplcmark.mcdonald@442079915966TomNashCFAStrategistHSBCBankAustraliaLimitedthomas.nash@.au612908424334June2018FXTacticianCU

12、RRENCIESGLOBALNervousThenbuytheUSD????CURRENCIES●GLOBAL4June20182SummaryoftacticalviewShttermdirectionCurrentPreviousUSDFednmalizationtradewarsamarketstillshtUSDpointtoanextensionhigherDXY????EURPoliticaleconomicuncertai

13、ntymayfceadelayinECB’stapering.EURtodriftlower.EURUSD????EURGBP????GBPAtestingmonthfGBPasBrexitprocessfacessomekeychallengeseventsdeadlinesinJuneGBPUSD????JPYTradewarintensificationshouldseetheJPYstrengthennotablyagainst

14、“riskon”tradeplayssuchasAUDUSDJPY????EURJPY????CHFItalianpoliticalriskhasrecededbutnotdisappeared.TradewarsCHFpositivebutJPYthecleanersafehavenEURCHF????USDCHF????NOK&SEKNgesBanksteppingtowardsnmalizationcouldseeEURNOKbr

15、eaklower.SEKconsolidatingfnow.EURNOK????EURSEK????AUD&NZDBearishAUDgivencyclicalheadwindswhilewewouldnotfighttheRBNZ’spreferencefaweakerNZDAUDUSD????NZDUSD????CADThemarketisalreadyhawkishlypricedffutureBoCmoveswhiletrade

16、warpointstohigherUSDCADUSDCAD????Source:HSBCFXtacticiantraderecommendations2018TradeEntrydateEntrylevelCurrentspotclosingrateTargetlevelStoplevelApprox.carrypointsperdayCarrytodateStatusP&LSellGBPJPY29Jan18153.40145.1014

17、5.10150.100.002386750.05%Closedat145.10(2March2018)5.41%BuyAUDNZD23Feb181.06881.05301.101.0530.000003840.01%Closedat1.053(4April2018)1.48%SellUSDNOK28Feb187.87598.067.408.060.000205950.16%Closedat8.06(1May2018)2.34%SellE

18、URUSD21Mar181.22751.24501.19501.24500.000087440.04%Closedat1.2450(26March2018)1.43%BuyCADJPY03Apr1882.3085.1085.1080.900.003052390.03%Closedat85.10(10April2018)3.40%SellGBPUSD01May181.36321.33671.31501.39200.000061660.02

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