項(xiàng)目組合管理培訓(xùn)

1、Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊偉 November 2002Beijing,項(xiàng)目管理者聯(lián)盟, MYPM.NET,2,,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, P

2、rocess and Techniques,3,The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management,1952, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant appro

3、ach used to manage risk and return within financial markets1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.1990s,

4、a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.Present, portfolio management as c

5、entral elements of good investment management,4,Portfolio Management, the overall picture,Focus(Strategic Planning ),Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne Bridges,Select(Portfolio Management),Manage(Pro

6、ject Management),,,,,,,,,5,,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,6,The Old Philosophy about Portfolio,,,Don’t put

7、all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.,7,,,,,,,Return and Risk in Financial Market,expected return,standard deviation (%),,,capital appreciation,growth of income,0

8、 6 12 18 24 30 36,20181614121086420,,,,,income,,,,,,,,inflation,,T-bills,,intermediate-termgovernmentbonds,,long-termgovernment bonds,,,,lon

9、g-termcorporate bonds,,large company stocks,smallcompanystocks,stabilityof principal,8,,The Role of Combining Securities,The expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.,Th

10、e Role of Combining Securities,10,The total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.,10,The Role of Combining Securities,,,expected return,risk,better

11、performance,A portfolio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.,The point of diversification is to achieve

12、a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.,11,The Efficient Frontier : Optimum Diversification of Risky Assets,,expected return,risk (standard deviation of returns),,,,impossibleportfolio

13、s,dominatedportfolios,efficient frontier,,,The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier,12,The Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diver

14、sification,,,As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.,,total risk,,,Non-dive

15、rsifiablerisk,number of securities,,,,Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.,13,Risk Reduction with Diversification,14,Market or systemati

16、c risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexUnsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro factor or market indexTotal risk = Systematic + Unsystematic,Components of Risk,15,Two

17、-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations,16,Relationship depends on correlation coefficient-1.0 < ? < +1.0The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potentialIf???= +1.0, no risk reducti

18、on is possible,Portfolio Risk/Return, Correlation Effects,17,Structuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocation,,,,,,individual choice asset class mix investment results,,,18,,Content,Emergence of Project

19、 Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,19,What is project portfolio management,Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves

20、 identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right thing, select

21、ing the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.,20,Portfolio Management is:,Defining goals and objectives – clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieveUnderstanding

22、, accelerating, and making tradeoffs – determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elseIdentifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk – select a mix of investments that will avoid undue

23、 risk, will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsMonitoring portfolio performance – understand the progress that the portfolio is

24、making toward the achievement of the goals and objectivesAchieving a desired objective – have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made,21,Portfolio

25、 Management is Not,Doing a series of project – specific calculations and analyses, such as return on investment, benefit-cost analysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting them all to ac

26、count for risk. – these are project specificCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.,22,The benefits of

27、Portfolio Management,Having a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsPlacing resources where it matters, reducing wasteful spendingLinking portfolio decisions to strate

28、gic direction and business goalsEstablishing logic, reasoning, and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisionsEstablishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels,23,,Content,Emergence of Proj

29、ect Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,24,Project Portfolio Management, Process & Technique,Four stepsProject Evaluation MatrixEvaluatio

30、n Criteria Examples,25,Step 1: Define the Portfolio,First, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.The mission s

31、tatement can be simple, like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.,26,Step 2: Gather the Projects,Now, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portf

32、olio. This may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts of the organization.,27,Step 3: Begin Weeding,Once the project list is established, begin weedi

33、ng the list down. Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area. Some projects may be under your wing

34、 but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.,28,Step 4: Begin Evaluating,Once the portfolio list is set, begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portf

35、olio will look like.Using the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the projects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this

36、project?,29,Project Evaluation Matrix,30,Using the Matrix,The matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.Projects are

37、evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.,31,Matrix Decision Re

38、gions,,,Projects to remove from the portfolio,Projects to keep in the portfolio,32,Evaluation Criteria,The Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and Benefit.Five sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time (

39、Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations (Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Impl

40、ementation and Maintenance CostsFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact on Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Im

41、pact on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits),33,Risk Assessment Scorecard- illustration,34,Benefits Assessment Scorecard - illustration,35,Plot the Project on th

42、e Matrix,,,,,Our Low Risk/ Low Benefit Project Might Be Rejected or Delayed,Our High Risk/ High Benefit Project Might Be Approved,36,What is the difference,Portfolio Management in the financial marketProject management

43、,37,Questions and Answers,,38,Thank You!李俊偉Contact at: george.lee@TalentAllianz.com,Room 318, Jin’Ou Plaza, #2 An Zhen Li,Chaoyang, Beijing, China 100029Tel +86-10 6443 7361. 6443 7362Fax +86-10 6443 7