[3-2]米什金《宏觀經(jīng)濟學政策與實踐》 mishkin - macroeconomics policy and practice (2011)

1、CHAPTER 8 ? BUSINESS CYCLES: AN INTRODUCTION 209Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; http://research.stlouisfed.org/ fred2/categories/22; accessed September 30, 2010.1%–2%5%3%–5

2、%–4%1965 1975 1960 1970 1985 1990 1995 2005 2000 2010 1980Year6%Interest Rate Spreads (percent)0%–3%4%2%–1%(a) Interest Rate Spread: Long-Term and Short-Term Government Bonds3%2%6%5%4%0%1%1965 1975 1960 1970 1985 1990 19

3、95 2005 2000 2010 1980YearCredit Spreads (percent)(b) Interest Rate Spread: Corporate and Government BondsFIGURE 8.8Credit Spreads and Spreads Between Long and Short-Term Bonds, 1960–2010The spread between long- and sho

4、rt-term government bonds in panel (a) is a procycli- cal and leading vari- able, while the credit spread (the spread between interest rates on corporate bonds and government bonds) in panel (b) is countercyclical and coi

5、ncident. The shaded areas in both graphs represent recessions.Financial markets throughout the world have also become more integrated overtime. Financial disruptions that start in one economy frequently spill over to ano

6、ther.This is exactly what happened in the fall of 2008, when the Lehman Brothers bank-ruptcy in the United States led to a global financial crisis, with stock prices crashingworldwide and credit spreads rising sharply. T

7、he spread of financial disruptions acrossborders provides another reason why business cycles are correlated across countries.When financial market conditions deteriorate simultaneously in many countries, thenegative shoc

8、k to their economies leads to simultaneous economic contractions.CHAPTER 8 ? BUSINESS CYCLES: AN INTRODUCTION 211(b) Annual Unemployment Rate1900 1920 1890 1910 1940 1950 1960 1990 1970 2010 1980 2000 1930Year(a) Annual

9、Growth Rate of Real GDP0%–15%20%10%25%–5%–20%GNP Growth Rate (percent)15%5%–10%1900 1920 1890 1910 1940 1950 1960 1990 1970 2010 1980 2000 1930Year(c) Annual Inflation Rate1900 1920 1890 1910 1940 1950 1960 1990 1970 201

10、0 1980 2000 1930Year20%10%30%25%0%Unemployment Rate (percent)15%5%0%–15%20%10%25%–5%–20%Inflation Rate (percent)15%5%–10%FIGURE 8.10Business Cycles in the United States: A Long-Term Perspective, 1890–2009Panel (a) shows

11、 annual growth rates of real GDP, panel (b) shows the unemployment rate, and panel (c) shows the annual infla- tion rate.Source: Balke, Nathan and Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. http:

12、//www .bea.gov/national/ nipaweb/SelectTable .asp?Selected=N, U.S. Census Bureau, at http://www2.census.gov /prod2/statcomp/ documents/ CT1970p1-05.pdf and Bureau of Labor Statistics, at http://data.bls.gov/ cgi-bin/sur