基于GIS與地理元胞自動機（Geo-CA）模型的城市空間擴展模擬研究——以呼和浩特市為例.pdf

1、內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于GIS與地理元胞自動機（GeoCA）模型的城市空間擴展模擬研究——以呼和浩特市為例姓名：薩楚拉申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：地圖學(xué)與地理信息系統(tǒng)指導(dǎo)教師：李百歲20070605ABSTRACTThecityisahi曲complicatedspatiotemporalcouplinghugesystemwhichisconstitutedforthenature，socie饑economyculturaletcI

2、tisnotonlythemostconcentratedregionofmankind’SactivitybutalsothemostimpressionablespaceinteractswiththehumanitiesfactorandnaturalfactorUrbanizationisfocusofhumanandland’SrelationwhichmainlyperformseXpansiomofthecityspace

3、Howeverbecausethecityhascharacteristicsofdissipativestructure，such舔opening，dynamic，selforganizationere，itsbehaviorhashighcomplexityTraditionalmethodsalreadycall。tsimulatethedevelopmentandlandutilizationchangingprocessoft

4、hecityaccuratelyTherefore，it’SneededtointroduceintoanewtechniquemeanstosimulateandforecastthedynamicexpansionprocessofcityprovidingaccuratedecisionmakinginformationforthecityplanningandmanagementTheGeoCellularAutomata(Ge

5、oCA)isakindofspatiotemporaldiscretedynamicsmodelIt’SthetypicalmethodthatstudiesoncomplicatedsystemalongwiththespatiotemporalvarietyspeciallyfittingtosimulationofthespatiotemporaldynamicvarietyofthecomplicatedcitysystemTh

6、epapertakesHohhotcityforstudyareathelandutilizationstatusofHohhotcityfrom1995to2004yearbyyearissimulatedbyusingtheGISandGeoCellularAutomata(Geo—CA)model，usingcurrentsituationoflandutilization(19952004)ofHohhotcityforthed

7、atasource，buildingHohhotcityGeoCAUrbanmodel，makingsureareasonableneighborandconvertedruleofGeo—CA，throughtheiterativecontrastandadjustmentfortheparameterfinallythemodelisinspectedremarkablyandfmdthattheaverageerrorinallt

8、ypeoflandutilizationareais625％Basedonmestatedabove，theland—utilizationstatusofHohhotcityin2010ispredictedTheresultsshowthattheresidentiallandareais369252hm2，comparet02004increase41292hm2，andexpand6882hm2annually；Theindus