30378.高等教育辦學(xué)規(guī)模預(yù)測與調(diào)控研究

1、目錄摘要................................................................................................................................IAbstract...............................................................................

2、............................................V緒論.................................................................................................................................1一、背景與問題....................................

3、....................................................................1（一）教育規(guī)劃中對教育發(fā)展規(guī)模的表述.....................................................1（二）高等教育發(fā)展規(guī)模與質(zhì)量、結(jié)構(gòu)、效益的矛盾.................................3（三）辦學(xué)經(jīng)費與招生規(guī)模之間的矛盾.....

4、....................................................4（四）從過去和現(xiàn)在可以推測未來嗎.............................................................6（五）如何從過去和現(xiàn)在推測高等教育發(fā)展規(guī)模.........................................8二、核心概念....................

5、......................................................................................10（一）高等教育...............................................................................................10（二）高等教育辦學(xué)規(guī)模.................

6、..............................................................12（三）預(yù)測.......................................................................................................16（四）調(diào)控.........................................

7、..............................................................20三、文獻(xiàn)綜述..........................................................................................................24（一）預(yù)測的價值討論................................

8、...................................................24（二）影響因素...............................................................................................29（三）確定與不確定......................................................

9、.................................34（四）趨勢與規(guī)律...........................................................................................36（五）可能或精確............................................................................

10、...............38（六）危機(jī)預(yù)警與調(diào)控...................................................................................40四、研究內(nèi)容與主要方法......................................................................................42（一）研究內(nèi)容與框

11、架...................................................................................42（二）主要研究方法.......................................................................................43五、價值與創(chuàng)新.............................

12、.........................................................................44（一）價值.......................................................................................................44（二）創(chuàng)新..............................

13、.........................................................................44第一章第一章人類預(yù)測未來的歷史與訴求人類預(yù)測未來的歷史與訴求...........................................................................45一、原始巫術(shù)預(yù)測..............................

14、....................................................................46（一）原始條件與訴求...................................................................................46（二）巫術(shù)的產(chǎn)生與發(fā)展............................................

15、...................................46（三）巫術(shù)的實質(zhì)...........................................................................................47二、古代術(shù)數(shù)預(yù)測..........................................................................

16、........................47（一）術(shù)數(shù)的產(chǎn)生與發(fā)展...............................................................................47（二）術(shù)數(shù)與巫術(shù)...........................................................................................49（