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1、9November2018AsiaEQUITIESChinapowersectMixedsignals:LetthewindguideyouPriceTPTSRImpliedStockTickerReco(local)(local)()PERHuaneng958.HKRenewa.OP2.322.9831.3%6.9Longyuan916.HKOP6.037.324.5%8.7HDFX816.HKOP1.51.825.9%4.3Gold

2、wind2208.HKOP7.118.7526.3%8YangtzePowerCGN600900.CHOP1816.HKN15.51.9318.624.3%1.679.6%17.97.8Source:MacquarieResearch6November2018pricesInsideKeyts2InvestmentCheatSheet3InvestmentSummary4Overallutilizationtocontinuerecov

3、eryin1720E9Blendedtarifftodeclinethoughatslowerpaceby2020E14Sectviewin1820E:gowiththewind17Appendices22HuanengRenewables25ChinaLongyuanPower30HuadianFuxinEnergyCp35XinjiangGoldwind40ChinaYangtzePower(AShare)45CGNPower50A

4、nalystsMacquarieCapitalLimitedPatrickDai862124129080patrick.dai@KerryCheng862124129025kerry.cheng@Utilizationtokeepimprovingin1720EasoversupplyfallsOurmodelsuggeststhatoverallutilizationwillsustainablyshowa~0.6%CAGRin172

5、0Easoversupplyreducesfthefirsttimesince2017dueto:a)powerdemrecoveringata6.6%CAGRin1820Ewiththreesustainabledriversb)restrictionsoncapacityadditionacrosssectsc)oversupplyreducingsustainablyover201720Eintermsofequivalentca

6、pacity.Blendedtariffstodeclinethoughataslowerpaceby2020EWereiterateourviewexpressedinChinapowerrefmtrackerV.1thatblendedtariffswillcontinuetofallduelargelytopricingrefms.Butwebelievethatavg.ongridtariffswilldeclineataslo

7、werratethan201517as:a)acceleratingpowerpricingrefmsboosttheproptionofmarketbasedsaleslowerthethresholdfmeparticipantstoenterthepowertradingmarketb)thegovttriestolowertheelectricitycostfenduserstheburdenofwhichwouldwebeli

8、evebesharedbypowergeneratsthetwogridcompaniesc)ourmodelsuggestsa~2.4%CAGRinavg.blendedtariffsinabasescenarioin1720Elowerthanthe~2.9%CAGRin201517.Sectviewin1820E:windtooutstwithmepowersalesdespitelowertariffWebelievewindi

9、sthebestplacedamongsourcesofpoweraswindfarmoperatshavechosentolowertariffstoboostsales.Coalfiredislikelytohavetradingopptunitiesduetoeasingcoalprices.Nuclearshouldseeaneutralimpactgiventhemixofpositiveimpactregionshalfne

10、gativeneutralimpactregionswiththecombinationofutilizationblendedtariffs.Hydrocouldbehurtbyvolatileutilizationlowerblendedtariffsinthemediumterm.SolarIPPsarelikelytostrugglewithstrictpoliciesinthemediumterm.StockideasPers

11、tockviewwepickHuanengRenewables(958.HK)LongyuanPower(916.HK)asournumberonetwobuysconsistentwithourviewthatwindpowergeneratsarethebiggestbeneficiariesofhigherutilizationyetlowertariff.OntopofthiswebelieveHuanengRenewables

12、hasover30%upsidegiventhestreet’sprioverconcernsaboutitsearningsqualitylowerthanexpectedcapacityinstallation.WealsorecommendbuyingHDFX(816.HK)Goldwind(2208.HK)basedonamajbusinessturnaroundlowerthanmultiyearavg.PERvaluatio

13、nperspective.WereiterateOutperfmonYangtzePower(600900.CH)asthelargestdomestichydropowergeneratisdefensiveoflowertariffpricingrefms.FinallyweupgradeCGNPower(1816.HK)toNeutralaswebelievemepowersellsyetlowertariffresultsina

14、neutralimpactonthefirm.Pleaserefertopage54fimptantdisclosuresanalystcertificationonourwebsiteresearchdisclosures.Keypoints?Weexpectthepoweroversupplytoreduceinthemediumtermraisingoverallutilisationhoursinresponse.?Blende

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