建筑料材行業(yè)2019年投資策略成本下降、格局改善、模式創(chuàng)新

1、內(nèi)容目錄一、需求變局：波動(dòng)收窄，零售端承壓、工程端仍是快車道....................................................5地產(chǎn)景氣下行，預(yù)計(jì)19年銷售增速轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)，但波動(dòng)小于以往.................................................5地產(chǎn)商集中度繼續(xù)提升，全裝修政策進(jìn)入落地釋放期......................................

2、................5頭部房企銷售集中度跳增，提升趨勢(shì)有望延續(xù)........................................................5全裝修政策進(jìn)入落地釋放期........................................................................6消費(fèi)建材整體增速趨緩，零售端承壓明顯，工程端放量仍將持續(xù).............

3、...............................7帝歐家居：瓷磚工程直銷龍頭，戰(zhàn)略集采加速集中度提升..............................................8凱倫股份：防水材料新秀，差異化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)突圍..........................................................9二、中游盈利回升：成本向下、格局向好，建材制造龍頭受益...........

4、.......................................9成本向下：上中游原料價(jià)格下降，利潤(rùn)分配向中下游轉(zhuǎn)移.................................................9原材料和能源價(jià)格下降，有望緩解中游建材制造企業(yè)成本壓力..........................................920122016年主要原料價(jià)格下行周期，毛利率變化回顧........

5、.......................................11格局向好，關(guān)注細(xì)分龍頭盈利彈性.....................................................................13環(huán)保趨嚴(yán)等供給側(cè)因素驅(qū)動(dòng)，加速中小產(chǎn)能退出，龍頭企業(yè)格局向好...................................13原料成本下行趨勢(shì)下，關(guān)注細(xì)分龍頭盈利彈性......

6、.................................................15東方雨虹：防水龍頭延續(xù)高增長(zhǎng)，多品類擴(kuò)張開啟新一輪成長(zhǎng).........................................15建研集團(tuán)：減水劑量?jī)r(jià)向上，檢測(cè)業(yè)務(wù)穩(wěn)步擴(kuò)張.....................................................16龍泉股份：PCCP受益穩(wěn)基建和成本下降，金屬管

7、件業(yè)績(jī)持續(xù)釋放......................................16三、模式探索：競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)改善，多品類范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)是方向.......................................................17優(yōu)秀企業(yè)不斷打造核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì).......................................................................17北新建材：

8、石膏板龍頭，成本優(yōu)勢(shì)的典范...........................................................17偉星新材：家裝PPR管材龍頭，“產(chǎn)品服務(wù)”差異化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)典范.........................................19向改善競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)變，多元業(yè)務(wù)的橫向戰(zhàn)略成為方向....................................................

9、.21堅(jiān)朗五金：建筑五金龍頭，內(nèi)外兼修，多品類擴(kuò)張領(lǐng)先者.................................................22建筑五金專家，門窗幕墻五金龍頭.................................................................22建筑五金行業(yè)：品類多、訂單分散，系統(tǒng)集成“制造服務(wù)”成為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方向...........................

10、.....22專業(yè)直銷系統(tǒng)集成信息化，“產(chǎn)品服務(wù)效率”兼具廣度和深度.....................................23持續(xù)投入在前，收益漸顯：多品類布局漸入收獲期...................................................25海外對(duì)標(biāo)：全球MRO龍頭—固安捷........................................................

11、.......26投資建議...............................................................................................27風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示...............................................................................................28圖表46：堅(jiān)朗五金

12、凈利潤(rùn)規(guī)模變化（百萬(wàn)元）.........................................................22圖表47：建筑五金產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈...........................................................................23圖表48：建筑五金細(xì)分品類...............................................

13、..........................23圖表49：堅(jiān)朗五金業(yè)務(wù)模式.........................................................................24圖表50：堅(jiān)朗五金國(guó)內(nèi)銷售聯(lián)絡(luò)點(diǎn)...................................................................24圖表51：堅(jiān)朗五金產(chǎn)品系列......

14、...................................................................24圖表52：堅(jiān)朗五金近兩年來(lái)新增品牌情況.............................................................25圖表53：堅(jiān)朗五金收入VS期間費(fèi)用增速變化................................................

15、..........26圖表54：堅(jiān)朗五金毛利率、費(fèi)用率和凈利率變化趨勢(shì)...................................................26圖表55：堅(jiān)朗五金銷售人員數(shù)量變化.................................................................26圖表56：堅(jiān)朗五金銷售人員數(shù)量VS銷售人均創(chuàng)收........................

16、..............................26圖表57：固安捷股價(jià)表現(xiàn)（對(duì)比標(biāo)普500）...........................................................27圖表58：固安捷收入規(guī)模變化.......................................................................27圖表59：固安捷凈利潤(rùn)規(guī)模變化....