摩根士丹利-中國(guó)-it服務(wù)與軟件行業(yè)-中國(guó)it服務(wù)與軟件業(yè)α編碼-2019.6.18-123頁(yè)_第1頁(yè)
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1、FOUNDATIONMChinaITServicesSoftwareCodingFAlphaRapidgrowthinChinasenterprisesoftwareindustryisbeingpropelledbyinnovationpolicysupptthemacroenvironment.Wearebullishonverticalnamesaslowerriskplaysprefervendswithbettervisibi

2、lityreasonablevaluationssuchasGlodonThunisoftVenusTech.MganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjecti

3、vityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.=Analyst

4、semployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystacc

5、ount.June18201909:00PMGMTFOUNDATIONMChinaITServicesSoftwareCodingFAlphaRapidgrowthinChinasenterprisesoftwareindustryisbeingpropelledbyinnovationpolicysupptthemacroenvironment.Wearebullishonverticalnamesaslowerriskplayspr

6、efervendswithbettervisibilityreasonablevaluationssuchasGlodonThunisoftVenusTech.Exhibit1:RatingspricetargetsTickerNewOldThunisoft300271.SZOW26.0018.0844%Glodon002410.SZOW36.0028.8725%VenusTech002439.SZOW32.0024.9528%Yony

7、ou600588.SSOWOW34.6224.8539%Baosight600845.SSOWOW39.0034.3414%Hundsun600570.SSEW65.0064.880%BONC300166.SZEW13.0012.088%Iflytek002230.SZUWUW28.0029.445%Winning300253.SZUW9.0012.8930%RatingCurrentprice(Rmb)UpsidedownsidePr

8、icetargetSource:MganStanleyResearch.SharepricesasofJune132019.Note:WiththisreptYonyouiFlytekarereclassifiedfromGreaterChinaTechnologyHardware(InLine)toGreaterChinaITServicesSoftware(Attractive).IndustryViewGreaterChinaIT

9、ServicesSoftware—AttractiveWeinitiateonChinaITServicesSoftwarewithanAttractiveindustryview.WebelieverisingdemfsoftwareoutsourcedITservicesisbeingdrivenbyChineseenterprisesincreasedfocusoninternalefficiencytocombatslowing

10、toplinegrowthhigherlabcosts.Furthertailwindsarecomingfromtechnologicalinnovation(inareaslikeartificialintelligence)previousunderinvestmentinITbyenterprises(histicallylowITspendingasa%ofGDP)governmentpolicysuppt(favableta

11、xratesthepromotionofdomestictechnologyatradetensions).Gartnerfecasts15%annualrevenuegrowthftheindustryin201821.Welikeverticalplayersftheirlowerrisk.Withtheirdeepindustryknowhowlocalservicescustomerstickinesscustomization

12、expertisewebelieveverticalenterpriseplayersareprotectedfromthethreebiggestthreatstothesoftwaresect:1)globalleaderslikeMicrosoftacle2)newentrantslikeBAT(BaiduAlibabaTencent)3)softwarepiracy.Overthelongtermweseemajpotentia

13、lfenterprisesoftwareintermsofmarketsizerecurringrevenuemarketshareconsolidation.IntheshttomediumtermconsideringthelatecyclenatureofenterprisespendingparticularlyintheprivatesectatSMEsweprefervendsthat1)cantransitiontobus

14、inessmodelswithmerecurringrevenue(SaaS)2)arefocusedonthepublicsect(highcertaintyofgrowth)3)catertocompliancedemslikecybersecurity.Stronglikelihoodofgrowthwarrantsvaluationpremium.TheChineseITservicessoftwaresectisgeneral

15、lyimmunetothecurrenttradetensionsmakingitespeciallyattractivecomparedwithmostofthetechnologyspace.Weexpectstableevenrisingvaluationmultiplesfsoftwarenameshelpedbyfundinflowsfromhardwarenamesexposedtotradetensionsaswellas

16、thescarcityofhighervisibilitygrowthstiesinaslowingmacroeconomy.WebelievefreecashflowmultiplesaremerelevantthanPEmultiplesconsideringthecompaniesdifferentR&Dcapitalizationaccountingpolicieswkingcapitaldynamics.Thevariousb

17、usinessmodelstechnologytrendsdownstreamsegmentscompetitiverisksofsoftwarenamesalsorendertheirterminalvaluessignificantlydifferent.Inadditiontohighergrowthwebelievesustainabilityscalabilitycanjustifypremiummultiples.Ourto

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