基于相空間重構(gòu)技術(shù)的我國旱澇時空分布研究.pdf

1、南京信息工程大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于相空間重構(gòu)技術(shù)的我國旱澇時空分布研究姓名：萬仕全申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：氣象學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：王盤興封國林20050501AbstractSincealongperiodoftimestudiesonprecipitationarelimitedinusingtraditionallinearstatisticalandespeciallywhenanalyzingtheregionalofprecipitat

2、iontheocularestimateandEmpiricalOrthogonaldecompositionmethodsetc.aregenerallyused..Howeverprecipitationseriesisa(EOE)勺!picalnonlinearorchaoticobservationsthetypicalstatisticalanalysismeansisnotabletofullyminethedynamica

3、lsignalofthetimeseries.Inthelightoftherecentresearchachievementsofnonlinearscienceandinthecontextofthedailyprecipitationdatafrom1951to2000at740stationscompiledbytheNationalClimatecenterthedynamicspaceofprecipitationateac

4、hstationisfirstreconstructedus噸thetimelagmetho氏andtheeiimflficcharactersofsummerprecipitationinthemonsoonareaofChinaarethenanalyzedus噸dynamicalcorrelationfactorexponentQ少ldingthefivedynamicclimatecharacteristicregionswho

5、sepropertydifersfromthetraditional“precipitationpattern“i.e.1)Jianghuaipatterncovering65stations2)SouthChinapaterncovering49stations3)NorthChinapatterncovering59stations4)NortheastChinapaterncovering27stationsand5)Tibeta

6、nplateaupaterncovering53stations.Thestatisticaldatashowthatweather印rec印itation)血thefivedynamicclimatecharacteristicregionssimultaneouslybecomesdrywetandnormalthatistosayeachregionpossessesacommonspatialtemporalcharacteri

7、sticstructure.Furtheranalysisofphysical二‘hanismssuggeststhattheJianghuaipatternandSouthChinapatternarecloserelatedwithENSOwhichmayresultsfromtheefectoftheIndiaEastAsia(IEA)teleconnectionpaternamongtheotherthreepaternsNor

8、thandNortheastChinapaternsarepositivelyrelatedwiththeridgelinepositionofsubtropicalhighbuttheENSOshowsnoobviousinfluenceonthethreepaternswhichmaybeassociatedwiththattheregionsaremainlyoutoftheweakimpactareaofENSOfiutherm