區(qū)域電力負荷預報的研究.pdf

1、東南大學碩士學位論文區(qū)域電力負荷預報的研究姓名：屠新伯申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：控制工程指導教師：達慶利闕炳良20050101東南大學工程碩士學位論文Abstrac【AbstractMiddlea11dlongter工1110adforecastofⅡlcelec耐cpo、versystemistlleessentialimportantcomentsthat母l鋤nteesthesafbtynmmngofelectricpo、靶rsys

2、tema11drealizessciencemanagementItisalsothebasicconditionofdevel叩mglocaIeconomyhhasbecomeaninlportalltresearchareainInodemelec砸cpowerscienceT11isdissenationisdivided血ofhechapterstodiscussmeoryf0_【111dationandac饑a1memodof

3、midmeand10ngtermloadforecastin也eele刪cpowersystemdhpterone，introduction，咖dllcesmeresearchbackground，researchstaCusaIldthemaincontemofthisdiss酬瞰ionChaptert、】m，suImnrizeing血emetllodsofloadforecast，brienys詛testhebaSicconcept

4、ofloadfbrecast，血eattributesoftheclaSsi矗cationofloadsandt11ebasicmethodsofloadforecastChaptertllree，midtenn10adforecastmamematicmodels，mailllys硼mrizememethodsofmid—ternlloadforecaSt，discussmedmes甜esforecastmodeI，grayforec

5、asemodel，multi—elementslmearre爨。墅mo如lcb毒ptcr南ub啦eins詛∞eofarIele《町cJoadforccastiogin～areain鋤uala11dmonthlyjbasedon盛11istoricaJdata0f鋤。u11tofelec伍cnyuse連inBarea，makesaIlactualmonthlyloadforecastbymeallsofmethodSofARMAmodel

6、，alsothea衄ualloadisforecasted1lsinggrayforeca嘶ngmodela11dmultielementslinearregressforecastingmodelinAare扎Chapterfive，fo∞castthelong—termloadusmgelectricflexibil時modulus，reViewsthebjstoryofelectdcnexibilitymodulusofChj媳c

7、ontrastst11eelec打icflexibiIi毋modulusofCllim謝th血atofforeigndevel叩edcountries，a11alysethedimcuItpointsoflong_teHnelectricloadforecast，aIldbringfo刑ardtheattentionpoimsoflong—te肋electricloadforecast，a工1dforecastesthe10adofpo