基于模糊層次分析法的海外電力工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)分析——以厄立特里亞HIRGIGO電廠工程項(xiàng)目為例.pdf

1、 一、學(xué)位論文獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明 一、學(xué)位論文獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明 本人聲明所呈交的學(xué)位論文是本人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。據(jù)我所知，除了文中特別加以標(biāo)注和致謝的地方外，論文中不包含其他人已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫(xiě)過(guò)的研究成果，也不包含為獲得南昌大學(xué)或其他教育機(jī)構(gòu)的學(xué)位或證書(shū)而使用過(guò)的材料。與我一同工作的同志對(duì)本研究所做的任何貢獻(xiàn)均已在論文中作了明確的說(shuō)明并表示謝意。 學(xué)位論文作者簽名（手寫(xiě)） ： 簽字日期：

2、年 月 日 二、學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書(shū) 二、學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書(shū) 本學(xué)位論文作者完全了解南昌大學(xué)有關(guān)保留、使用學(xué)位論文的規(guī)定，同意學(xué)校有權(quán)保留并向國(guó)家有關(guān)部門(mén)或機(jī)構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和電子版，允許論文被查閱和借閱。本人授權(quán)南昌大學(xué)可以將學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)進(jìn)行檢索，可以采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存、匯編本學(xué)位論文。同時(shí)授權(quán)北京萬(wàn)方數(shù)據(jù)股份有限公司和中國(guó)學(xué)術(shù)期刊（光盤(pán)版）電子雜志社將本學(xué)位論文收錄到《中國(guó)學(xué)

3、位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)》和《中國(guó)優(yōu)秀博碩士學(xué)位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)》 中全文發(fā)表， 并通過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)向社會(huì)公眾提供信息服務(wù)， 同意按“章程”規(guī)定享受相關(guān)權(quán)益。 學(xué)位論文作者簽名（手寫(xiě)） ： 導(dǎo)師簽名（手寫(xiě)） ： 簽字日期： 年 月 日 簽字日期： 年 月 日 論文題目 基于模糊層次分析法的海外電力工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)分析 ——以厄立特里亞 HIRGIGO 電廠工程項(xiàng)目為

4、例 姓名 吳先勇 學(xué)號(hào) 417117815041 論文級(jí)別 博士□碩士? 院/系/所 管理學(xué)院 專業(yè) 工程管理 備注： ?公開(kāi) □保密（向校學(xué)位辦申請(qǐng)獲批準(zhǔn)為“保密” ，年月后公開(kāi)） ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT With the strengthening of our country's construction strength and the implementation of the nat

5、ional “the Belt and Road“ policy, more and more domestic enterprises are participating in the “global competition“ of overseas engineering contracting market. Although Chinese enterprises have rich experience on design a

6、nd construction, but they are still backward relatively on research of risk management this project. This paper adopted overseas power engineering project as the research object. Firstly introduced the theory of risk ma

7、nagement as well as relevant theory of risk management of overseas power engineering project, analyzed the characteristic and main influencing factors overseas power engineering project. According to the project characte

8、ristic, the literature investigation method and Delphi method were utilized to identify the risk factors and risk factors of overseas power engineering project were obtained. Based on uncertainty and fuzziness of risk, b

9、uild the fuzzy risk assessment model by Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, establish the fuzzy matrix through the establishment of hierarchy and consult expert advices, make evaluation for occurrence probability and sever

10、ity of risk, and provided the corresponding risk response and control measures. Finally, this paper given as an example of Eritrea HIRGIGO power plant project analyzing on the risk factors of overseas power projects, as

11、well as the level of risk analysis by using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy. It is concluded that total degree is medium risk for the risk of the project, risk of loss is relatively serious, presents the corresponding measu

12、res to deal with risks, provides the correct and effective information for Eritrean power plant project. The research achievement of this study has reference value in the certain overseas power engineering project; meanw