新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程中山東省政府購買估算及其對消費的影響.pdf

1、分類號：F812.7密級：UDC：338.1學校代碼：11065碩士學位論文新型城鎮(zhèn)化新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程中進程中山東省政府購買估算及其對消費的影響山東省政府購買估算及其對消費的影響崔鈴敏指導教師丁秀英副教授學科專業(yè)名稱西方經(jīng)濟學論文答辯日期2016年5月28日AbstractConsumptionisthesoleendpurposefallproductioninlongterm.Consumptionisaffectedbygovern

2、mentpurchase.theconsumptionrateofShongprovinceisverylowsince1978，whichisnotconducivetoeconomicstabilityimprovinglivingstards.Oneofthepurposeof“Thenewurbanizationplanningfrom2014to2020ofShongprovince”istoexpconsumption.Bu

3、ttherearetwoproblems.First，thecompletionofthenewurbanizationgoalsrequiresmatchinggovernmentpurchase.Second，thereisnoconsistentconclusionwhetherthegovernmentwillincreaseconsumption.Therefe，thisstudyestimatesthescaleofgove

4、rnmentpurchaseinthebackgroundofthenewurbanizationanalyzewhethertherelationshipofgovernmentpurchaseconsumptionisalternativecomplementary.Usingeconometrictechniquestoestimatethegovernmentpurchaseunderthenewurbanizationback

5、ground.TherelationshipbetweenurbanizationrategovernmentpurchasesinShongprovinceisanalyzedinaVARframewkbytwoempiricalapproaches，variancedecompositionGrangercausalitytest，anpredictionofpurchasescaleovertheperiodfrom2014to2

6、020isalsomade.TheresultsshowthattherelationshipbetweenurbanizationrategovernmentpurchaseinShongprovinceissignificantlypositive.IndertoachievethenewurbanizationgoalofShongprovincein2020，anannualaverageincreaseof45，569bill

7、ionRMBingovernmentpurchasesisneeded.BasedonthreedepartmentsSolowmodel，dynamicsimulationofthegovernmentpurchaseonconsumptionisdrawn.Usingtheestimatedsizeofgovernmentpurchase，theparametersofthethreedepartmentsSolowbasicdif

8、ferentialequationisestimated.Basingtheequation，theeffectofgovernmentpurchaseonconsumptionisdynamicallysimulatedunderthebackgroundofwithoutconsideringthenewurbanizationconsideringthenewurbanization.Theresultsshowthatthere