洪澤湖以上中長期來水預報模型研究及應用.pdf

1、河海大學碩士學位論文洪澤湖以上中長期來水預報模型研究及應用姓名：張領見申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水利工程指導教師：李致家季紅飛20070501TheStudyOnModleofTheMediumtermandlongtermHydrologyRunoffForcastingUpwardsHongzeLakeCandidate：Zhanglingjian^dvisor：ProLiZhijia一E暉field：HydraulicEnginee

2、ringAbsh薯ct：nuaiheRiverisoneofthesevengreatestRiversinChina10ngzeLakeislocatedinthemiddlereachesterminalofauaihemainstream，Acceptingwatercomefromtheupperandmiddlereacheswith158000時drainagearesItisakeyprojectforregulating

3、middleandloverreacheswatervolumeHengzeLakenotonlytakesonflood—controldutyinthelowerreachofHuaiheRiver，butalsobecomesthelargeststoragereservoirofnorthregioninJiangshuprovinceThestoragevolumedirectlyaffectsthewatersupplyfo

4、rnorthregioninAnhuiprovinceAsoneoftheimportantnonprojectmeans，themediumtermandlongtermrunoffforecastingneeddevelopednecessarilyandurgentlyThepapermakessomeresearchonthisissue，andgainssomecheeringresultsThemediumtermandlo

5、ngtermrunoffforecastingisthetechnicalwaytoforecastthefuturedailyortendaysrunoffprocessaccordingtotheprecedingconditionofresearchbasin，theinputrunoffprocessofforecastingcrosssectionandrelevanthydrometeorologyfactors，throu

6、ghstatisticandanalyticmethodsandphysicalgeneticanalyzingAtpresentthepractic曲lemedium—termandlongtermhydrologyforecastingmethodisamulti—statisticforecastingtechniquebasedonprecedingcircumfluenceanalysis，seatemperaturechar

7、acteranalysisandhydrologyelementsanalysisaboutforecastingbasinThepaperadoptsthemulti‘。statisticforecastingmethodtoforecastinputrunoffoftendaysandmonthwhichdependsonthehydrometeorologycharacterofthebasinupwardstheHongzeLa

8、keThestatisticforecastingmethodinvolvesmanymethodsandmodelsincludingthegraduallyoptimizingmethod，stableARMA(p，q)model，lineardynamicsystemmodel，meteorologyfactorsmethodandsoonAfterforecastingthroughstatisticforecastingmet

9、hod，wecandecidetheforecastingresults7weightofeachmethodthroughsimulatingprecision，andweightedaverageeverymethod’sforecastingresult，then，wecangetasyntheticalandrelativelyreasonableforecastingresultThepaperselectsthreefact

10、orstheseatemperatureofnorthernPacificOcean，the500hpaand100hpaairpressureonnorthernhomisphereasthemeteorologyfactors，andusesstatisticforecastingmethodtoforecasttheinputrunoffvolumeonthebasinupwardstheHongzelakeGoodeffecta

11、regainedonforecastingtheinputrunoffvolumeof2002and2003throughintroducingintotheforecastingfunctionsbuildinthispaperandtheforecastingresultscanbereferencedinactualwerkKeywords：hongzelaketherunoffforecastingmodelstructurew