2011年外文翻譯--理解中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的高盈利能力（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　2800英文單詞，15500英文字符，4500漢字</p><p>　　文獻(xiàn)出處：Löchel H, Li H X. Understanding the high profitability of Chinese banks[J]. Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series, 2011.</p><p>　　Unders

2、tanding the high profitability of Chinese banks</p><p>　　Löchel, Horst; Li, Helena Xiang</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　The big Chinese state-owned banks came as

3、 winners out of the global financial crisis. According to the Banker ranking, Chinese banks led the global banking profitability ranking through the years from 2008 to 2010 and contributed one fifth of global banking pro

4、fits in 2010. The Chinese banking sector, which was deemed as wholly insolvent ten years ago, was reborn like a phoenix from the fire of the Asian financial crisis and the current financial crisis. The banking reform in

5、the last decade wit</p><p>　　However, the low efficiency in Chinese banks is still persistent, as evident in many empirical studies (e.g. Feyzio?lu, (2009)). The contradiction of high profitability and low e

6、fficiency causes great confusion in understanding banking in China. Our paper aims to reveal the real sources of the high profitability of the big Chinese banks. We compare their profitability pattern with peer banks fro

7、m Asia, Europe and North America.</p><p>　　We first test the hypothesis that the average asset return of the “big five” Chinese banks will fall below the international comparative level if the current high n

8、et interest margin given by the managed interest system in China falls to the international peer average level. Surprisingly, the hypothesis has to be rejected. Instead, our results show that the profitability of Chinese

9、 banks stays at international comparative level, despite the high inefficiency in Chinese banks.</p><p>　　We therefore test a second hypothesis stating that the profitability of Chinese banks will fall- belo

10、w their international peers if staff costs increase by 30 percent in average to reach the international level, with the joint condition of margin decrease. This hypothesis can be proved, which means that the “big five” C

11、hinese banks compensate its inefficiency by a combination of a non-competitive high interest margin and unsustainable lower labor cost.</p><p>　　The above results of course raise the question how the big Chi

12、nese banks can stay competitive if China continues to liberalize its interest rate system and labor cost increases. In our concluding remarks, we discuss the possibility that Chinese banks change their business model tow

13、ards universal banking with additional non-interest income to compensate the drop in interest margin.</p><p>　　Key words: China; Banks; Finance; Banking business model; Universal banking</p><p>

14、　　1. Introduction</p><p>　　In sharp contrast to the large-scale government bail-outs in Western banking world, Chinese banks withstood the crisis without noteworthy write-offs and have even occupied the lead

15、 position of the global banking profitability ranking through the crisis years. According to The Banker, 101 Chinese banks are included in the Top 1000 World Banks ranking for 2010 and Chinese banks contribute to 21% of

16、the global banking profits1. Fully confident with the good performance in equity strength, asset qua</p><p>　　The great success of China’s banking reform surprised many with the fear of a crisis resulting fr

17、om the heavy bad loan burden of projected 35% only ten years ago4. The fact is that the whole banking sector withstood well the thunderstorms of both the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s and the current global fina

18、ncial crisis, thanks to gradual but consistent reform steps especially in the last decade, with capital injections and asset carve-outs totally costing an estimated over 20% of 2004’s</p><p>　　Despite the gr

19、eat reform success in the last thirty years, the banking sector still struggles with many problems unsolved: the dominance of state-ownership and the related inefficiency, policy intervention in lending, limited access o

20、f private firms for bank financing, financial repression and foreign currency and interest rate controls12. What confuses many outsider observers of the Chinese banking sector is the coexistence of high profitability and

21、 persistent low efficiency evident in many emp</p><p>　　In our study, we try to find explanation for this contradiction by investigating the profitability patter of Chinese banks compared with international

22、peers. Using financial data of 1,000 banks from ASEAN, China, EU 15 countries and North America, we examine which factors are decisive in leading to the high asset return in Chinese banks compared to peer banks. To our b

23、est knowledge, our paper is the first to empirically engage with the profitability model of Chinese banks in an international co</p><p>　　We notice further that the personnel expenses in Chinese banks are 3

24、0% less than the international average. We combine the lowering of the lending margin to the international peer level with a simultaneous increase of personnel expenses ratio by 30% in the stressed scenario to test the a

25、sset return resilience. Under this scenario, the asset return of Chinese banks drops sharply from the current 0.81% to a mere 0.34%, compared to the international average of 0.41%. The outperformance in profitabi</p&g

26、t;<p>　　Thus, the current outperformance of Chinese banks is rooted on the one hand in the higher margin given by the managed interest rate system, and on the other hand in the low labor costs.</p><p>

27、;　　To catch up the international profitability level in a more liberalized operating enviroment, Chinese banks should close the gap in business diversification, besides increase operational efficiency continuously. Our s

28、imulation shows that the doubling of non-interest income ratio can fully compensate the profitability drop in the stressed scenario.</p><p>　　Our findings are of special relevance in the light of the challen

29、ges from the dynamic changes in the operating environment for Chinese banks in the next years. In addition to the fulfillment of new regulatory rules introduced by Basel III, the interest rate and foreign currency libera

30、lization will put pressure on margin and the development of the corporate bond market will challenge bank’s dominant role in corporate financing and accelerate the disintermediation in China. The change from the exp</

31、p><p>　　This paper is structured in the following way: Part II provides the background of the current emerging operating environment of Chinese banks. Part III compares the key financials of Chinese banks espec

32、ially the largest “big five” banks with international peer banks for hypothesis building. Part IV examines the profitability determinants of Chinese banks in comparison to international peers and simulates the impact of

33、possible changes in those determinates in the next years. Part V summarizes th</p><p>　　Current emerging operating environment for Chinese banks</p><p>　　Quite in contrast to the “big bang” fina

34、ncial sector reform in other transition countries, China fellows the gradual way of reform in its transformation from the centrally planned to market- based economy. Till today, the deposit and lending rates still lie u

35、nder the partial control of the central bank: the People’s Bank of China (PBC) sets a mandatory depositing rate cap of currently 3.50% and a lending rate floor of 6.56%, thus guarantees a net interest margin of 3.06% for

36、 one-year maturity, </p><p>　　The guaranteed high margin and the lasting credit boom in course of the rapid economic development provide banks “windfall” profits and little incentive for operational efficien

37、cy improvement and business innovation. It is especially problematic with the persistent negative real interest rate over years, which leads to overinvestment and helps in constructing the current investment- and export-

38、lead instead of consumption-lead growth model in China.</p><p>　　However, the interest rate regime is written in the reform agenda. The gradual interest rate liberalization starting in 1996 follows the princ

39、iple: “foreign currency rates first, followed by local currency rates; lending rates first, followed by deposit rates; and large amount and long-term deposit rates first, followed by small amount and short-term deposit r

40、ates”. In 1996 and in 1997, the interbank lending rates and the interbank repo rates were liberalized respectively. In 1998, the interest </p><p>　　The interest rate reform is closely related with the loosen

41、ing of foreign capital control in China. In contrast to the rapid capital account liberalization in other countries, the flows of foreign currencies in the capital account are nowadays still controlled by the State Admin

42、istration of Foreign Exchanges (SAFE) in China, although the current account was liberalized in 1996. The control of capital accounts avoids the foreign capital flows into China and the alignment of interest rates level

43、t</p><p>　　Besides the interest rate and foreign currency control, the banking market is characterized with an oligopolistic market structure. Due to historical path of the big four SOCBs and their dominant

44、 role in financing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the current banking market land- scape is dominated by the “big five” banks with a market share measured by total assets of about 50%, whereas the majority of banks – 2,

45、646 rural credit cooperatives – share together only 6.7% of the total banking assets</p><p>　　Summarizing the above description, Chinese banks still operate in the protective environment with margin guarante

46、e and isolation from the competition in international financial markets due to foreign currency control. The margin protection aims above all to maintain the system stability in course of the transition and reform. As th

47、e operation of the largest listed Chinese banks has been gradually upgraded to international level, the “windfall” profits is expected to be gradually diminished in co</p><p>　　Conclusion and Outlook</p&g

48、t;<p>　　Summarizing our findings, we document the great reform success of the last decade in China’s banking sector in improved capital level and loan quality up to internationally comparative level. The high prof

49、itability of Chinese banks is however rooted in large extent in the guaranteed high net interest margin and lower personnel costs advantage. In the current emerging operating environment of margin guarantee, capital flow

50、 control and restrictive market competition through entry barrier and busin</p><p>　　The gradual interest rate liberalization and the subsequent decrease in margin as well as the projected salary increase in

51、 the next years would diminish the current outperformance in profitability of the “big five” Chinese banks. Business diversification to increase non-interest income revenues by increasing product variety and promoting in

52、novation and expansion in high value-added wealth management, advisory and insurance services can leverage the current customer base and explore the cross-sel</p><p>　　Currently, business diversification is

53、indeed put with high priority as the next cornerstone of banking reform in China. As recognized by a Chinese financial expert, business diversification is deemed to be the next big reform wave after the first wave of ban

54、king reform, restructuring and IPO. The regulatory reform to loosen banking business scope restriction is already under way. Since 2005, selected banks are allowed on the pilot trial basis to set up fund management subsi

55、diaries. Since 2009, </p><p>　　理解中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的高盈利能力</p><p>　　Löchel, Horst; Li, Helena Xiang</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)大型國(guó)有銀行是全球金融危機(jī)的贏家。依據(jù)在2008年到2010年間銀行家

56、的排名，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)在全球銀行業(yè)盈利能力排行中名列前茅，并且在2010年的 時(shí)候貢獻(xiàn)了全球銀行業(yè)利潤(rùn)的五分之一。中國(guó)的銀行業(yè)，曾在十年前被視為已經(jīng) 處于完全破產(chǎn)的狀態(tài)，在經(jīng)歷了亞洲金融危機(jī)和現(xiàn)在全球性的金融危機(jī)之后，卻像個(gè)鳳凰涅槃似的重生了。在過(guò)去十年間中國(guó)銀行業(yè)進(jìn)行了大規(guī)模的資金注入、 資產(chǎn)分拆、重組以及上市取得了極大成功。</p><p>　　然而,中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的低效率仍然一直存在，在許多實(shí)證研究中我們都可以找到

57、相 關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)（e.g. Feyzioglu, (2009))。中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的高盈利能力和低效之間的矛盾導(dǎo)致了認(rèn)識(shí)中國(guó)的銀行方面很大的混亂。我們的論文主要目的是揭示中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的 高盈利能力的真正來(lái)源。在本文中我們將比較中國(guó)銀行業(yè)和來(lái)自亞洲、歐洲以及 北美的銀行同業(yè)的盈利能力樣式。</p><p>　　我們首先測(cè)試了假設(shè)如果目前的中國(guó)管制的利率制度導(dǎo)致的高凈利率低于國(guó)際 同行的平均水平的話(huà)，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)“五大行”平均資產(chǎn)

58、收益率將會(huì)低于國(guó)際同行水平。令人驚訝的是,假設(shè)并不成立。相反的，我們的測(cè)試結(jié)果顯示盡管中國(guó)銀行 業(yè)的工作效率低下，但是中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的盈利能力與國(guó)外同行的水平相當(dāng)。</p><p>　　因此我們測(cè)試了第二種假設(shè)，指出如果員工支出費(fèi)用增加了 30%到國(guó)家平均水平 的話(huà)，隨著利率降低，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的盈利能力將會(huì)低于國(guó)際同行水平。這種假 設(shè)被證明是正確的，這意味著中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的“五大行”通過(guò)非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性的高利率和 不可持續(xù)的低勞動(dòng)

59、力成本來(lái)彌補(bǔ)其不足。</p><p>　　上述結(jié)果，引發(fā)了人們的疑問(wèn)：如果繼續(xù)放開(kāi)其利率體系以及勞動(dòng)力成本不斷上 升的話(huà)，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)將如何盈利？在我們的結(jié)論中，我們討論了中國(guó)銀行業(yè)改變 其業(yè)務(wù)模式的可能性。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)；銀行；融資；銀行的業(yè)務(wù)模式；全能型銀行</p><p><b>　　1.簡(jiǎn)介</b></p>

60、<p>　　與西方銀行業(yè)的大規(guī)模的政府救助計(jì)劃中形成了鮮明的對(duì)比，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)經(jīng)受了危機(jī)，也沒(méi)有形成大量的呆賬，并且甚至在國(guó)際金融危機(jī)期間占據(jù)全球銀行盈利能力居領(lǐng)先地位。按照銀行家提供的數(shù)據(jù)，2010年全球前1000名 銀行排名中有101家中國(guó)銀行上榜。中國(guó)銀行業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)了全球21%的利潤(rùn)。由于中國(guó)銀行業(yè)對(duì)自身股本實(shí)力、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量、流動(dòng)性和盈利能力良好表現(xiàn)充滿(mǎn)信心，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)視此次危機(jī)為海外擴(kuò)張的黃金機(jī)遇。</p>

61、<p>　　按照稅前利潤(rùn)排名的2007-2010年間全球十大銀行 中國(guó)銀行業(yè)改革所取得的極大成功震驚了那些十年前擔(dān)心中國(guó)銀行預(yù)計(jì)35%的 沉重的不良貸款負(fù)擔(dān)的人。事實(shí)上，整個(gè)銀行業(yè)也都經(jīng)受住了上世紀(jì)90年代末 期的亞洲金融危機(jī)的風(fēng)暴以及當(dāng)前的全球金融危機(jī)，感謝過(guò)去十年間的漸進(jìn)改革, 中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的資本注入和資產(chǎn)分拆達(dá)到了 20%的2004年的GDP，通過(guò)引入國(guó)外 少數(shù)股東成為董事會(huì)成員、采用國(guó)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、公司治理與上市的最佳實(shí)踐

62、，這 次改革使得國(guó)有股權(quán)銀行改革成了股權(quán)銀行。</p><p>　　除了在過(guò)去三十年間中國(guó)取得的巨大改革成效，中國(guó)的銀行業(yè)還存在著大量未解決的問(wèn)題：公有制仍然占主導(dǎo)地位 并且效率低下、貸款政策方面的干預(yù)、民營(yíng)企業(yè)只能獲得有限的銀行融資、金融 抑制與外匯利率管制。在許多實(shí)證研究中的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的高盈利能力和持續(xù)效率低下共存的現(xiàn)象使得很多的外部觀察者感到困惑。Feyzioglii (2009)和 Garcfa-Herr

63、ero，GaviM和Santabdibara (2009)就在他們的研究中爭(zhēng)辯說(shuō)中國(guó)銀行 業(yè)的高盈利是與效率能力突出表現(xiàn)完全不相關(guān)的。相反，F(xiàn)eyzbglu (2009)則在研究中提出高利率與市場(chǎng)集中度高才是上述矛盾的可能解釋。</p><p>　　在我們的研究中,我們?cè)噲D通過(guò)調(diào)查與國(guó)際同行相比的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的盈利能力樣式，來(lái)解釋上述矛盾。通過(guò)使用ASEAN中有關(guān)來(lái)自中國(guó)、歐盟15國(guó)以及北美的1000家銀行的金融數(shù)

64、據(jù)，我們檢查了與銀行同業(yè)相比，哪些因素在中國(guó)銀 行業(yè)高資產(chǎn)回報(bào)方面起著決定性的作用。據(jù)我們所知，我們的論文是首次在國(guó)際 背景上對(duì)中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的盈利能力模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)銀行業(yè) 在盈利能力的突出表現(xiàn)確實(shí)依賴(lài)于高利潤(rùn)-幾乎是國(guó)際同行的雙倍-大多數(shù)是得益于當(dāng)前的保證保證金制度。然而，我們進(jìn)行的模擬還顯示當(dāng)資產(chǎn)的利潤(rùn)率削減 到目前水平的一半的時(shí)候，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)仍然處于國(guó)際同行的平均水平。效率低下并沒(méi)有導(dǎo)致中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)回報(bào)低于國(guó)

65、際平均水平。</p><p>　　此外，我們還注意到中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的人事費(fèi)用要比國(guó)際平均水平低30%。我們?cè)趬毫y(cè)試場(chǎng)景中將中國(guó)銀行的貸款利率降低到國(guó)際同行水平并將人事費(fèi)用增加 30%來(lái)測(cè)試資產(chǎn)收益能力。在此場(chǎng)景下，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率從當(dāng)前的 0.81%下降到約0.34%，而國(guó)際同行的資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率為0.41%。中國(guó)銀行業(yè)“五大行”的盈利能力突出表現(xiàn)完全消失了。</p><p>　　因此，中國(guó)

66、銀行業(yè)當(dāng)前的突出表現(xiàn)是由受管制的利率體系以及低人工成本造成的。</p><p>　　為了在一個(gè)更加開(kāi)放的操作環(huán)境趕上國(guó)際盈利能力水平，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)應(yīng)該彌補(bǔ)業(yè)務(wù)多元化上面的差距，除此之外還需不斷提高運(yùn)營(yíng)效率。我們的模擬結(jié)果還顯示出雙倍非利息收入率能完全補(bǔ)償壓力測(cè)試場(chǎng)景中的盈利能力下降。</p><p>　　我們的研究對(duì)于中國(guó)銀行業(yè)面對(duì)將來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn)時(shí)具有特殊的意義。除了滿(mǎn)足Basel III引入的

67、新規(guī)范，利率和外匯市場(chǎng)化將會(huì)給中國(guó)銀行業(yè)帶來(lái)盈利方面的壓力，并且企業(yè)債券市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展將會(huì)挑戰(zhàn)銀行在公司融資方面的主要作用以及加速中 國(guó)的非居間化。出口導(dǎo)向到消費(fèi)導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型變化將會(huì)消除銀行公司借貸方面 的增長(zhǎng)以及盈利能力。銀行業(yè)務(wù)范圍的限制放開(kāi)將會(huì)給中國(guó)銀行業(yè)提供從商品貸 款價(jià)值鏈向高附加值的咨詢(xún)和資本市場(chǎng)的金融服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移的寶貴機(jī)會(huì)。處于當(dāng)前“盈利能力陷阱”以及不愿進(jìn)行商業(yè)模式轉(zhuǎn)型的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)在一個(gè)更加開(kāi)放的操作環(huán)境中，將會(huì)失去他們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

68、優(yōu)勢(shì)。</p><p>　　本文的組織結(jié)構(gòu)如下：部分會(huì)提供當(dāng)前出現(xiàn)的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)操作環(huán)境的背景描述。部分則會(huì)比較中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的關(guān)鍵金融指標(biāo)，尤其是最大的“五大行”和國(guó)際銀行同業(yè)在場(chǎng)景建設(shè)方面的比較。部分IV則會(huì)檢查與國(guó)際同行相比，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)盈利能力的決定因素，并模擬接下來(lái)幾年中這些決定因素變化所造成的影響。部分V則會(huì)總結(jié)結(jié)論并提供相關(guān)研究展望。</p><p>　　2.目前出現(xiàn)的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)操作

69、環(huán)境</p><p>　　與其他轉(zhuǎn)型國(guó)家“大爆炸”似的金融部門(mén)改革恰恰相反，中國(guó)采用了漸進(jìn)式的改革方法。直到今天，存貸款利率仍然是央行控制下的部分:中國(guó)人民銀行（PBC) 設(shè)定一個(gè)強(qiáng)制性的最高存款利率（當(dāng)前3.50%)以及最高貸款利率（6.56%)，從而保證了一年期的凈息3.06%，貸款方面國(guó)際利率比較高。</p><p>　　受到保證的高利潤(rùn)率以及快速經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展導(dǎo)致的持續(xù)的信貸繁榮都給銀行

70、帶來(lái)了 暴利以及導(dǎo)致了銀行在提高工作效率和業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新方面缺乏激勵(lì)。持續(xù)存在的負(fù)利 率是特別有問(wèn)題的，這導(dǎo)致了過(guò)度投資以及幫助構(gòu)建了當(dāng)前的投資和出口導(dǎo)向的 增長(zhǎng)模式（而不是消費(fèi)導(dǎo)向的增長(zhǎng)模式）。</p><p>　　然而，利率制度是寫(xiě)在政府的改革議程上的。始于1996年的漸進(jìn)式的利率市場(chǎng)化遵循了下述原則：“外幣利率是第一位的，其次是當(dāng)?shù)刎泿艆R率；貸款利率是第一位的，其次是存款利率；大量和長(zhǎng)期存款利率是第一位的，其次是

71、小額、短期存款利率”。在1996和1997年里，同業(yè)拆借利率和銀行間回購(gòu)利率分別放開(kāi)。在1998年的時(shí)候，放開(kāi)了金融債券的銀行同業(yè)拆借市場(chǎng)，并在1999年的時(shí)候開(kāi)放了政府債券。對(duì)于外國(guó)貨幣而言，在2000年的時(shí)候貸款利率已經(jīng)放開(kāi)。大量的人民幣存款以及國(guó)外貨幣的利率部分自由化則分別是在1999年和2000實(shí)現(xiàn)。商業(yè)銀行針對(duì)PBC規(guī)定利率的貸款利率浮動(dòng)范圍則在0.9到1.7之間浮動(dòng)，到了2004年的時(shí)候，農(nóng)村合作社的利率浮動(dòng)則到了0.9和2

72、.0之間。2007年和2008年的時(shí)候私人抵押貸款利率進(jìn)一步分別擴(kuò)大到了0.85和0.7。在2007年里，建立了上海銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率，這對(duì)于一個(gè)市場(chǎng)化的利率體系的實(shí)現(xiàn)是一個(gè)里程碑的事件。除此之外，商業(yè)銀行業(yè)被允許提供即將到來(lái)的財(cái)富管理產(chǎn)品。可以預(yù)見(jiàn)正在進(jìn)行的利率市場(chǎng)化將會(huì)加速進(jìn)行，“穩(wěn)定的進(jìn)行利率市場(chǎng)化改革的推進(jìn)”作為中國(guó)政府未來(lái)五年的金融改革的主要目</p><p>　　利率改革是與中國(guó)不斷松動(dòng)的外國(guó)資本控制

73、密切相關(guān)的。盡管活期存款帳戶(hù)在 1996年的時(shí)候?qū)崿F(xiàn)了自由化，但是與其他國(guó)家的資本賬戶(hù)快速自由化完全相反， 中國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目外匯的流動(dòng)現(xiàn)在還是由中國(guó)國(guó)家外匯管理局（SAFE)控制著。Ma 和McCauley (2007)在他們的研究中識(shí)別出了一個(gè)高達(dá)300個(gè)基準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)的三個(gè)月期 限的離岸在岸利率收益差距，這意味著資本賬戶(hù)防止人民幣的跨境資本流動(dòng)的控 制效果。然而，在2001年3月建立的B-股市場(chǎng)則給中國(guó)的外資進(jìn)行股權(quán)投資的機(jī)會(huì)，這是因?yàn)锽股使得

74、國(guó)外的投資者能夠以國(guó)外貨幣購(gòu)買(mǎi)中國(guó)公司的股票(在上海USD,在Shenzhen是HKD)。2002年的時(shí)候中國(guó)政府引入了合格境外機(jī) 構(gòu)投資者(QFII)項(xiàng)目，允許外國(guó)投資者在獲得外管局審批的前提下進(jìn)行股票和 債券投資。人民幣自由化就是人民幣的自由兌換，以及以人民幣為計(jì)量單位的資本項(xiàng)目的自由兌換。</p><p>　　除了利率和外匯管制，金融市場(chǎng)還具有寡頭壟斷的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)。由于四大銀行SOCBs以及他們?cè)趪?guó)有企業(yè)融資

75、方面（SOEs)所占據(jù)的絕對(duì)作用，目前銀行業(yè)市場(chǎng)格局是由“五大行”銀行主宰的，衡量的市場(chǎng)份額占到了總資產(chǎn)的50%，其中大部分的銀行2,646家農(nóng)村信用合作社只占有6.7%的銀行資產(chǎn)。此外，許多農(nóng)村金融機(jī)構(gòu)中并沒(méi)有現(xiàn)代化的銀行管理機(jī)制的存在。所有的“四大行”SOCBs都己經(jīng)完成了重組，最大的銀行甚至開(kāi)始通過(guò)設(shè)置自己的農(nóng)村銀行支行來(lái)擴(kuò)張農(nóng)村銀行業(yè)務(wù)。外國(guó)銀行的股權(quán)只有2%。寡頭壟斷的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)給最大的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)了高盈利能力。此外，由于中國(guó)

76、證監(jiān)會(huì)(CSRC)設(shè)置的高上市門(mén)檻，導(dǎo)致了銀行貸款在企業(yè)融資中發(fā)揮著主導(dǎo)作用，尤其是那些大型企業(yè)。因此，無(wú)論是寡頭壟斷的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)還是與銀行談判力量的薄弱都有助于銀行保持一個(gè)相對(duì)高的貸款利率。然而，股份制商業(yè)銀行（JSCBs)正在不斷的挑戰(zhàn)SOCBs的市場(chǎng)份額，這是因?yàn)槊駹I(yíng)JSCBs通常是基于商業(yè)基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行運(yùn)作的，所以在效率、產(chǎn)品種類(lèi)以及服務(wù)質(zhì)量方面具有更好的業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)。</p><p>　　對(duì)上述觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)，中國(guó)銀

77、行業(yè)仍然處于相對(duì)保護(hù)的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境中。利潤(rùn)保護(hù)的 目的是維持轉(zhuǎn)型和改革的過(guò)程中系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性。隨著最大上市的中國(guó)銀行業(yè)不 斷融入國(guó)際層面，暴利的時(shí)代將有望終結(jié)。銀行如果無(wú)法降低它們?cè)谫J款利率上 的依賴(lài)以及進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的商業(yè)模式調(diào)整，那么就會(huì)在目前的“盈利能力陷阱”中摔倒。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論與展望</b></p><p>　　對(duì)我們的研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié)，我們記錄了過(guò)

78、去十年間中國(guó)銀行業(yè)所取得的巨大改革成果。中國(guó)銀行業(yè)的高盈利能力在根本上是由高凈利率以及較低的人事費(fèi)用優(yōu)勢(shì)保證的。在當(dāng)前新興的融資融券擔(dān)保、資金流的控制和限制市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的進(jìn)入壁壘和經(jīng)營(yíng)范圍限制的經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境中，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)仍然在享受暴利時(shí)代。</p><p>　　接下來(lái)幾年漸進(jìn)式的利率市場(chǎng)化和利率隨之降低以及預(yù)計(jì)工資增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)減少中國(guó)銀行業(yè)“五大行”在盈利能力方面的突出表現(xiàn)?？梢岳矛F(xiàn)有的客戶(hù)基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)多元化增加非利息收入

79、的收入、促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新和高附加值的財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)、開(kāi)發(fā)咨詢(xún)和保險(xiǎn)服務(wù)，從而在降低利息收入的時(shí)候增加收入。從目前的純商業(yè)銀行模式逐步轉(zhuǎn)型至全能型銀行模式是中國(guó)銀行系統(tǒng)改造未來(lái)的基石。對(duì)于整個(gè)銀行業(yè)而言，“五大行”銀行成功的改革路徑能夠加強(qiáng)資本基礎(chǔ)，隨后城市和農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行也應(yīng)完善信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理以及公司治理。</p><p>　　當(dāng)前，多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)是中國(guó)銀行改革浪潮中的下一個(gè)基石。由于得到了中國(guó)金融專(zhuān)家的認(rèn)可，多元化經(jīng)營(yíng)被認(rèn)為是下

80、一個(gè)大的改革浪潮。放寬銀行經(jīng)營(yíng)范圍限制的監(jiān)管改革己在進(jìn)行中。從2005年開(kāi)始，試點(diǎn)銀行允許設(shè)立基金管理公司。從2009年開(kāi)始，試點(diǎn)銀行能組建保險(xiǎn)子公司。中國(guó)跨部門(mén)的金融服務(wù)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展給銀行和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)提出了新的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。當(dāng)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力還在發(fā)展中的時(shí)候，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)是否能夠處理在資本市場(chǎng)相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的復(fù)雜性？如何使目前的行業(yè)監(jiān)管結(jié)構(gòu)滿(mǎn)足跨行業(yè)金融服務(wù)的需要?金融系統(tǒng)中金融集團(tuán)內(nèi)潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移是否仍然缺乏顯性存款保險(xiǎn)？中國(guó)仍然在進(jìn)行探索綜合