外文翻譯--制成品出口和進(jìn)口需求的評(píng)估外商直接投資的作用（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　1600單詞，9400英文字符，2820漢字</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： Estimating the Export and Import Demand for Manufactured Goods: The Role of FDI page:1-2 4-7 </p><p&

2、gt;　　出 處： Review of World Economics </p><p>　　作 者： Mariam Camarero and Cecilio Tamarit </p><p><b>　　英 文：</b></p><p>　　Estimat

3、ing the Export and Import Demand forManufactured Goods: The Role of FDI</p><p>　　Mariam Camarero and Cecilio Tamarit</p><p>　　Abstract: In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and impo

4、rts of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the

5、stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the</p&

6、gt;<p>　　Keywords: Export and import demand; New Trade Theory; panel data; cointegration; foreign direct investment; </p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　The demand for exports (or imports)

7、has been traditionally specified as a function of a country’s competitiveness and a foreign (domestic) activity variable. Although this approach has been predominant in the empirical literature, it has remained controver

8、sial. Econometric work with data for different countries spanning a number of years faces some daunting challenges: country- and time-specific effects, endogeneity of the explanatory variables, omission of relevant varia

9、bles, parameter instabil</p><p>　　Consequently, recent empirical studies have introduced new features both from a theoretical and a methodological point of view. In this paper, we aim to make a contribution

10、to the empirical discussion of long-run relationships for export and import demand. For this purpose, we first estimate the traditiond specification to reproduce some of the existing results in the literature, but using

11、a new econometric framework for the analysis. In particular, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques</p><p>　　The paper is organized hereafter as follows. In Section 2, we review the theoretical issue

12、s relating trade to its determinants, and more specifically, the role of FDI. In Section 3, we discuss the empirical results for a panel formed by 11 European countries, the United States, and Japan. Section 4 makes some

13、 concluding remarks and outlines possible directions for future research.</p><p>　　2 Theoretical Considerations: Trade versus FDI?</p><p>　　The increasing openness of the capital markets in Euro

14、pe as a result of the Single Market initiative, as well as the process of globalization at the world level, has renewed the interest of both the theoretical and the applied literature in the study of the effects of inter

15、national mobility of production factors on trade. Similarly, many developing countries have embarked themselves on a process of liberalization during the 1990s giving rise to many uncertainties concerning macroeconomic a

16、nd mon</p><p>　　However, the accumulation of evidence from at least the last twenty years suggests that it is important to examine in depth the sign of the relationship linking trade and FDI, since the relat

17、ionship is heavily influenced by the activity of multinational corporations (MNCs). Consequently, any theoretical treatment that sees FDI as similar to portfolio or physical factor allocation can be misleading and from t

18、he 1970s there have been various attempts to shed light on the relationship between trade</p><p>　　Classical View: The Standard Trade Theory (1950s—1960s)</p><p>　　Under the traditional Hecksche

19、r-Ohlin framework (H-O), provided that a certain set of restrictive assumptions holds)1 either international trade or international mobility of factors of production could equalize factor prices across countries. The con

20、ventional view of the relationship between factor movements and commodity trade maintains that the two are (Mundell 1957). However, the assumptions of the factor price equalization theorem can never be fully met in reali

21、ty, so that factor movements c</p><p>　　Theory of Industrial Organization and the Key Concepts of Economic Integration of Products and Factors (1970s-1980s)</p><p>　　It is commonly acknowledged

22、that MNCs are involved in a substantial part of international trade and capital movements. MNCs are characterized by setting up businesses and producing commodities outside their home country. The movement of capital whi

23、ch takes place in this context, and which consists of establishing foreign affiliates or acquiring majority share positions in existing foreign companies, is considered direct investment.</p><p>　　A company

24、that is setting up production abroad has to compare its disadvantages (communication costs, differences in culture, language, legislation, exchange and sovereign risks) to the alternatives like exporting or licensing.<

25、;/p><p>　　Dunning (1972, 1977) formulated an eclectic view of the different approaches made by the theory of industrial organization, which gave birth to the so-called OLI paradigm. According to it> a firm’s

26、 choice between the three alternatives (exporting, licensing, or investing abroad) depends on the combination of the three following advantages: ownership-specific advantages, locational advantages, and internalization a

27、dvantages in the target market.</p><p>　　An issue of interest when the analysis is focused on European countries is the effect that integration has on inward and outward FDI, both within and between blocs. T

28、he evolution of FDI and its expected complementary or substitute effects on trade would also depend on the reasons that justified the investment decision before the process of integration started and also on the changes

29、in the market structure as well as the trade policy measures boosted by the integration process.2 Due to the compl</p><p>　　New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography (1980s-1990s)</p><p>　　The

30、 early attempts to reconcile the theory of multinationals with trade theory appears in Markusen (1984) and Helpman (1984). The former focused on horizontal investments in which a firm sets up abroad to produce the same p

31、roduct that it produces at home, while the latter focused on vertical investments in which the production process is decomposed by stages according to factor intensities in different countries. In both cases, multination

32、als export services produced from physical factors, rathe</p><p>　　-Vertical integration (a la Helpman) is based on different factor endowments and, therefore is an efficiency-seeking FDI that may have mainl

33、y a complementary relationship with trade.</p><p>　　-Horizontal integration (a la Markusen or a la Brainard) is mainly based on the improvement of market access or market growth prospects, thus generating a

34、market-seeking FDI that will have a substitutional relationship with trade.</p><p>　　The literature on MNCs normally distinguishes between vertical and horizontal firms, and suggests that the latter's lo

35、cation decisions are determined mainly by market access rather than by cost considerations. However, Neary (2002) shows that even when multinational activity is purely horizontal, yet costs are crucial in determining whe

36、re in the union a new plant will locate.</p><p>　　When the sum of the fixed costs at the firm level and the tariffs are higher than the fixed costs at the plant level, the multiplant production is more appro

37、priate than a centralized one. In these models of horizontal multiplant production, the decision to engage in multinational production reflects a trade-off between the firm’s desire to be close to foreign markets (becaus

38、e of trade costs) and the desire to concentrate production at home and exploit economies of scale (home market effect^),</p><p>　　A unified approach has been developed recently aiming at endogenizing multina

39、tional firms in general-equilibrium trade models and integrating separate contributions on multiplant horizontal MNCs with work on vertical ones.</p><p>　　The results show that vertical multinationals domina

40、te when countries are very different in relative factor endowments and, conversely, horizontal multinationals dominate when the countries are similar in size and in relative endowments, and trade costs are moderate to hi

41、gh. Although, generally, vertical direct investment could be thought of as expanding north-south (big-small countries) trade and horizontal as associated with decreasing trade in north-north (or equal size) relationships

42、 between</p><p>　　The possibility of splitting the production process into different stages and/or the existence of multiproduct firms gives rise to situations in which, regardless of the aims of the firms,

43、the most feasible outcome is a positive relationship between an increase in MNCs activities and trade, either intrafirm and/or intraindustrial (Baldwin and Ottaviano 2001 and Markusen and Maskus 2001).</p><p&g

44、t;<b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　制成品出口和進(jìn)口需求的評(píng)估：外商直接投資的作用摘要</p><p>　　在本文中,我們對(duì)一組包括大多數(shù)歐盟成員國(guó)、美國(guó)、以及日本的國(guó)家的制成品進(jìn)出口需求面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行估計(jì)。除了傳統(tǒng)意義上影響貿(mào)易的因素，該模型的解釋變量還包括外國(guó)直接投資(FDI)?？紤]到異方差的可能，我們運(yùn)用了群體單位根檢驗(yàn)和協(xié)整測(cè)試。但是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)

45、公式進(jìn)行協(xié)整測(cè)試的結(jié)果并無(wú)問(wèn)題，結(jié)果顯示增廣模型的變量長(zhǎng)期相關(guān)。另外，回歸結(jié)果只要指出了貿(mào)易與FDI之間的關(guān)系。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞:出口和進(jìn)口需求;新貿(mào)易理論;面板數(shù)據(jù);協(xié)整;外商直接投資;</p><p><b>　　簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　進(jìn)出口的需求在傳統(tǒng)意義上是一個(gè)國(guó)家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力及其對(duì)外(或本國(guó))經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的體現(xiàn)。盡管在

46、實(shí)證中常常得到青睞，但是關(guān)于此方法的爭(zhēng)議一直存在。針對(duì)不同國(guó)家橫跨數(shù)年的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)量工作面臨著一些嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)：國(guó)別因素和歷史因素的影響、解釋變量的內(nèi)生關(guān)系、有關(guān)變量的遺漏、以及非定常數(shù)據(jù)參數(shù)的非平穩(wěn)（1998年Hooper等人）。同時(shí)，根據(jù)深受產(chǎn)業(yè)組織理論影響的所謂新貿(mào)易理論，更多可能影響進(jìn)出口的因素已開(kāi)始受到關(guān)注，比如說(shuō)外國(guó)直接投資（FDI）或是貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量等等。</p><p>　　因此,最近的實(shí)證研究同時(shí)從理

47、論和方法論出發(fā)提出了新的觀點(diǎn)。我們希望本文能對(duì)進(jìn)出口需求長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究提供一定參考。為此，我們首先運(yùn)用新穎的計(jì)量方法對(duì)文獻(xiàn)中已有的研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行了回顧。特別地，我們運(yùn)用結(jié)合了時(shí)間序列和截面數(shù)據(jù)的協(xié)整方法，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量中經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的非平穩(wěn)和內(nèi)生性問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了處理。此外，通過(guò)同樣的計(jì)量方法，我們還根據(jù)近期的理論工作進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的擴(kuò)展，由此檢測(cè)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性。通過(guò)對(duì)傳統(tǒng)解釋變量和FDI存量的運(yùn)用，我們將特別關(guān)注針對(duì)一組經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）

48、成員國(guó)制成品進(jìn)出口需求的估計(jì)。</p><p>　　本文旨在為貿(mào)易和FDI的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系提供新的觀點(diǎn)。下文的結(jié)構(gòu)如下：在第二部分中，我們將回顧有關(guān)貿(mào)易及其影響因素的理論問(wèn)題，特別地，我們將關(guān)注FDI的作用。第三部分中，我們將討論針對(duì)由十一個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家、美國(guó)、以及日本組成的面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果。第四部分包括總結(jié)評(píng)論，并會(huì)概括未來(lái)研究的可能方向。</p><p>　　2 從理論出發(fā)：貿(mào)易還是FDI?&l

49、t;/p><p>　　在歐洲單一市場(chǎng)和世界范圍全球化的驅(qū)動(dòng)下，歐洲資本市場(chǎng)日趨開(kāi)放，并由此帶動(dòng)了對(duì)生產(chǎn)要素國(guó)際流動(dòng)影響的理論和實(shí)證研究。類似的，由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政狀況日益失穩(wěn)，貿(mào)易和長(zhǎng)期直接投資也不容樂(lè)觀，一些發(fā)展中國(guó)家自上世紀(jì)九十年代開(kāi)始了開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)的進(jìn)程。不幸的是，根據(jù)Markusen (1997)的觀點(diǎn)，貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家至今尚未合理而深入地解決長(zhǎng)期直接投資的問(wèn)題，而貿(mào)易理論的范式受到Mundell (1957)的開(kāi)創(chuàng)

50、性論文的影響；根據(jù)Mundell的觀點(diǎn)，商品貿(mào)易和生產(chǎn)要素是互可替代的。</p><p>　　然而，過(guò)去二十年間的實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)表明，深入研究貿(mào)易和FDI之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系是絕對(duì)有必要的，因?yàn)槎咧g的關(guān)系深受跨國(guó)公司(MNCs)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)的影響。因此，如果有理論方法的出發(fā)點(diǎn)是FDI與證券投資組合或有形生產(chǎn)要素分配類似，那么這一理論將會(huì)是誤導(dǎo)性的。自上世紀(jì)七十年代以來(lái)，已有多方面的研究旨在揭示貿(mào)易與FDI之間的關(guān)系。<

51、/p><p>　　標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貿(mào)易理論(二十世紀(jì)五十年代到二十世紀(jì)六十年代)</p><p>　　傳統(tǒng)的赫克歇爾-俄林(H-O)定理提出了一系列限制條件，不論是國(guó)際貿(mào)易還是生產(chǎn)要素的國(guó)際流動(dòng)，都不能夠與國(guó)與國(guó)之間的要素價(jià)格相提并論。習(xí)慣上認(rèn)為，要素流動(dòng)和商品貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系仍是替代品(Mundell 1957)。然而，因素價(jià)格均衡定理的假說(shuō)永遠(yuǎn)得不到現(xiàn)實(shí)的驗(yàn)證，因此要素流動(dòng)并不能保證商品或是要素價(jià)格的均

52、衡。事實(shí)上，Markusen (1983)主張，商品和要素流動(dòng)之間的替代關(guān)系是例外而不是定理，但是二者之間的互補(bǔ)性在很多情況下卻是存在的。</p><p>　　產(chǎn)業(yè)組織理論和產(chǎn)品與要素經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的核心思想(二十世紀(jì)七十年代到二十世紀(jì)八十年代)</p><p>　　跨國(guó)企業(yè)通常被認(rèn)為是國(guó)際貿(mào)易和資本流動(dòng)的重要參與者?？鐕?guó)企業(yè)的特點(diǎn)是在本國(guó)以外開(kāi)展生意和生產(chǎn)商品。在此情況下的資本流動(dòng)，及其涉及

53、的建立國(guó)外分支機(jī)構(gòu)以及從現(xiàn)存外國(guó)公司獲得多數(shù)股權(quán)的問(wèn)題，都涵蓋在直接投資的范疇里。公司必須考慮，相對(duì)于出口或特許經(jīng)營(yíng)，在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)是否存在（通訊費(fèi)用,以及文化、語(yǔ)言、法律、交六和主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不同等方面的）劣勢(shì)。</p><p>　　從產(chǎn)業(yè)組織理論的不同研究方法出發(fā)，Dunning (1972, 1977)提出了一個(gè)折衷主義的觀點(diǎn)，OLI范式也由此產(chǎn)生。根據(jù)此范式，在出口、特許經(jīng)營(yíng)、還是外國(guó)投資之間，公司的選擇取決于一下

54、三種優(yōu)勢(shì)的組合：特有的所有權(quán)優(yōu)勢(shì)、本地優(yōu)勢(shì)、以及目標(biāo)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)在優(yōu)勢(shì)。分析歐洲國(guó)家時(shí)往往會(huì)遇到這樣一個(gè)有趣的問(wèn)題，即一體化對(duì)FDI的雙向流通，以及集團(tuán)內(nèi)部和集團(tuán)之間的直接投資，都有一定的影響。FDI的演變及其對(duì)貿(mào)易預(yù)期的補(bǔ)充或替代作用，也取決于一體化進(jìn)程開(kāi)始之前，影響最終投資決定的那些因素。考慮到這些關(guān)系的復(fù)雜性，一個(gè)一般均衡模型足以包含所有這些因素間的相互作用。但是，上世紀(jì)八十年代，基于Brander和Spencer的相互傾銷模型，另一

55、種觀點(diǎn)采用寡頭壟斷的行業(yè)部分均衡模型形式形成了。</p><p>　　新貿(mào)易理論和新經(jīng)濟(jì)地理學(xué)(二十世紀(jì)八十年代到二十世紀(jì)九十年代)</p><p>　　Markusen (1984) and Helpman (1984)提出的，調(diào)解跨國(guó)公司理論和貿(mào)易理論的最早嘗試?？鐕?guó)公司理論著重于水平投資，即公司在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)于其在國(guó)內(nèi)相同的產(chǎn)品；貿(mào)易理論著重于垂直投資，即根據(jù)不同國(guó)家的要素稟賦將生產(chǎn)過(guò)程

56、分解成各個(gè)階段。相同的是，在兩種情況下跨國(guó)公司都是加工實(shí)物要素，而非利用自身的要素或在此基礎(chǔ)上加工實(shí)物要素。對(duì)（無(wú)形）資產(chǎn)所有權(quán)的開(kāi)發(fā)利用促進(jìn)了在水平或垂直方向上分段結(jié)構(gòu)的跨國(guó)企業(yè)的發(fā)展，并證實(shí)了FDI和貿(mào)易之間的互補(bǔ)和替代關(guān)系。</p><p>　　垂直一體化 (a la Helpman)的基礎(chǔ)是不同的要素稟賦，因此可能是與貿(mào)易主要存在互補(bǔ)關(guān)系的、追求效率的FDI。</p><p>　　

57、水平一體化(a la Markusen 或者 a la Brainard)主要基于市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入的改善或者市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)前景，因此催生了尋求市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)的FDI，而這種FDI主要與貿(mào)易存在替代關(guān)系。</p><p>　　研究跨國(guó)企業(yè)的文獻(xiàn)通常將水平和垂直一體化加以區(qū)分，并且認(rèn)為后者的地理位置選擇主要是由市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入而非成本考慮決定的。然而，Neary (2002)揭示說(shuō)即使跨國(guó)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)完全在垂直水平上進(jìn)行，成本仍是決定新工廠選址

58、何處的重要考慮。當(dāng)企業(yè)水平上的固定成本和關(guān)稅總和高于工廠水平的固定成本，分散于多個(gè)工廠的生產(chǎn)比集中生產(chǎn)更為合適。在垂直多工廠生產(chǎn)的模型中，參與跨國(guó)生產(chǎn)的決策反映了企業(yè)進(jìn)入外國(guó)市場(chǎng)的愿望（出于貿(mào)易成本的考慮）與企業(yè)集中在母國(guó)生產(chǎn)以達(dá)到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)愿望之間（母國(guó)市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)）的權(quán)衡。最近，針對(duì)一般均衡下跨國(guó)企業(yè)貿(mào)易模型和垂直多工廠跨國(guó)企業(yè)一體化效應(yīng)的研究，提出了一個(gè)綜合性的方法。研究結(jié)果顯示，當(dāng)不同國(guó)家之間的相應(yīng)要素稟賦差別很大時(shí)，垂直結(jié)構(gòu)的跨國(guó)企