汽車行業(yè)分析外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　汽車行業(yè)分析</b></p><p>　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家汽車工業(yè)已處在成熟階段，未來幾年將是我國(guó)汽車需求增長(zhǎng)較快的時(shí)期 。</p><p>　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家汽車工業(yè)已進(jìn)入成熟期，全球汽車年產(chǎn)量約7000萬輛，而需求量只有5000萬輛左右。設(shè)備利用率平均69％，遠(yuǎn)低于1990年的80％。全球汽車工業(yè)平均年增長(zhǎng)速度在2.2％左右。據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)，世界轎車

2、總保有量約5．5億輛，其中1／4分布在西歐、北美和日本等地區(qū)，但這些地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)速度已趨緩，汽車市場(chǎng)趨于飽和，如美國(guó)人均擁有1輛轎車，其市場(chǎng)空間已經(jīng)不大。而且市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)寡頭壟斷的特征，汽車產(chǎn)量集中在少數(shù)汽車跨國(guó)公司手里。行業(yè)的盈利水平較低，大多數(shù)汽車企業(yè)的凈利潤(rùn)率不足3％。汽車寡頭們通過不斷的收購兼并和聯(lián)合，擴(kuò)大經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模以降低成本。汽車的生產(chǎn)制造技術(shù)也已非常成熟。因此無論從哪個(gè)角度分析，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家汽車工業(yè)已處在成熟階段。</p>

3、<p>　　南美和亞洲一些發(fā)展中國(guó)家汽車工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)速度略高一些，是世界增長(zhǎng)最快和最具活力的市場(chǎng)，汽車保有量的年均增長(zhǎng)速度接近8％。其汽車工業(yè)處在成長(zhǎng)期。</p><p>　　我國(guó)1994年以前汽車工業(yè)快速增長(zhǎng)，1994年—1998年，處于低速發(fā)展階段，年均產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)率只有4．68％，落后于同期我國(guó)GDP的增長(zhǎng)速度。1999年開始出現(xiàn)快速增長(zhǎng)，當(dāng)年增長(zhǎng)12．39％，2000年增長(zhǎng)13．03％。從近10年我國(guó)

4、汽車工業(yè)的發(fā)展情況看，波動(dòng)幅度較大，如果與同期我國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)速度相比較，很難得出汽車工業(yè)處于成長(zhǎng)期的結(jié)論。但從人均汽車擁有量看，我國(guó)百人汽車保有量為1．1輛，不僅無法與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比，即使與巴西等發(fā)展中國(guó)家相比，也存在較大的差距（巴西每百人汽車保有量為4．2輛）。從年人均收入水平看，日、美、韓等國(guó)汽車工業(yè)快速發(fā)展時(shí)期正是年人均收入達(dá)到4000美元的時(shí)期，這一時(shí)期被認(rèn)為是汽車工業(yè)發(fā)展的導(dǎo)入期。目前我國(guó)的年人均收入水平只有800美元，沿海一些

5、地區(qū)達(dá)到4000美元左右。因此從購買力水平的角度分析，未來幾年將是我國(guó)汽車需求增長(zhǎng)較快的時(shí)期。</p><p>　　汽車上市公司的平均利潤(rùn)率高于行業(yè)平均水平汽車上市公司的平均毛利率為21％，營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率在10％左右，高于行業(yè)的平均水平。但隨著汽車產(chǎn)品銷售價(jià)格的逐步走低以及鋼鐵等原材料價(jià)格的上升，其毛利率在近年也有所下降。我國(guó)加入WTO后，進(jìn)口轎車價(jià)格的下降將使國(guó)產(chǎn)轎車承受較大的降價(jià)壓力。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看汽車的價(jià)格趨于下降

6、，如果生產(chǎn)規(guī)模沒法得到有效的提高，生產(chǎn)成本將無法降低，那么汽車企業(yè)的毛利率還會(huì)下降，盈利能力也將進(jìn)一步減弱。</p><p>　　如果我們分車型來看，轎車的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率最高，維持在10％左右。轎車企業(yè)中上海大眾、一汽大眾等合資企業(yè)的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率較高，達(dá)到16％左右，天津汽車、長(zhǎng)安汽車的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率在6％以下。載貨車的利潤(rùn)率居第二位，最差的是客車，客車業(yè)由于企業(yè)數(shù)目眾多（全國(guó)共有77家），大多數(shù)企業(yè)的規(guī)模很小，無法有效控

7、制經(jīng)營(yíng)成本。客車類上市公司的平均營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率約5％。而零部件企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率也隨著整車價(jià)格的走低而下降。</p><p>　　目前我國(guó)汽車行業(yè)的盈利水平呈現(xiàn)兩極分化，一部分企業(yè)的盈利能力很強(qiáng)，如中外合資轎車企業(yè)及相關(guān)的零部件配套企業(yè)。零部件企業(yè)由于相當(dāng)一部分屬于集團(tuán)內(nèi)部的配套供貨，配套價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于市場(chǎng)價(jià)格，造成汽車國(guó)產(chǎn)化率越高，整車的成本和售價(jià)越高的“水漲船高”的現(xiàn)象。在市場(chǎng)放開之前，這些企業(yè)仍能維持較高的盈利水平。&l

8、t;/p><p>　　從全球范圍看，汽車工業(yè)已進(jìn)入微利階段。1999年通用、豐田公司的凈利潤(rùn)率分別只有3．2％和2．79％。其它幾大汽車跨國(guó)公司的凈利潤(rùn)率大多低于3％。目前我國(guó)汽車行業(yè)的總生產(chǎn)能力已超過500萬輛，而每年的產(chǎn)量只有200萬輛。其中轎車生產(chǎn)企業(yè)超過13家，年總產(chǎn)量約60萬輛，一半以上的生產(chǎn)能力閑置。生產(chǎn)集中度前3家為66．68％，前5家為83．88％。大中型客車企業(yè)83家（含改裝廠），生產(chǎn)能力達(dá)到10萬

9、輛，年產(chǎn)量只有4．7萬輛。輕型客車企業(yè)分散、廠點(diǎn)過多，全國(guó)共有40家。生產(chǎn)能力已放空一半，而且生產(chǎn)能力的增長(zhǎng)速度仍高于需求的增長(zhǎng)速度。前5家企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)集中度為66％，1／3以上的輕客企業(yè)處于虧損狀態(tài)。零部件方面，技術(shù)含量低的機(jī)械件如萬向節(jié)、汽車軸承等產(chǎn)品供過于求，而包括發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)管理系統(tǒng)、自動(dòng)變速箱、安全氣囊、ABS在內(nèi)的一些高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品則需從國(guó)外進(jìn)口。從現(xiàn)有供給能力看，我國(guó)整車的生產(chǎn)能力過剩，約有一半的產(chǎn)能放空，基本上形成多品種、多檔次的系

10、列產(chǎn)品。進(jìn)口主要集中在高檔轎車和客車上。零部件方面，技術(shù)含量低的機(jī)械件供大于求，產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈。而技術(shù)含量高的電子產(chǎn)品如自動(dòng)變速箱、安全氣囊等產(chǎn)品國(guó)內(nèi)供給能力不足，</p><p>　　2007年轎車的需求增長(zhǎng)速度可能略高于去年，尤其是經(jīng)濟(jì)型車</p><p>　　1999年我國(guó)汽車工業(yè)的大幅度增長(zhǎng)，是多年來低速增長(zhǎng)的反彈，還是作為快速增長(zhǎng)的拐點(diǎn)值得注意。另外需要注意的是1999年、2000

11、年拉動(dòng)我國(guó)汽車增長(zhǎng)的主要車型是客車和重型載貨車。2000年受消費(fèi)者對(duì)價(jià)格下跌預(yù)期的影響，轎車的需求量并沒有明顯的放大，全年的產(chǎn)銷量同比增長(zhǎng)9％左右，比汽車工業(yè)的增速落后4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。雖然私人購車的比例在近年有大幅度上升，但大量的潛在消費(fèi)者仍處于持幣觀望狀態(tài)。</p><p>　　2007年轎車市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)一些變化，比如：</p><p>　　———供給結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化，大量新車型將推出。奇瑞、賽歐

12、、比亞迪、夏利2006等經(jīng)濟(jì)型轎車的上市以及價(jià)格更為低廉的吉利、悅達(dá)、QQ、奔奔等6字頭轎車（指在我國(guó)汽車目錄管理中被列入客車目錄下的部分微型轎車）的加入，可能使私人轎車市場(chǎng)成為今年汽車市場(chǎng)的熱點(diǎn)。</p><p>　　———政府的政策導(dǎo)向?qū)⒁源碳まI車消費(fèi)為主。國(guó)家已于去年出臺(tái)了包括取消238項(xiàng)不合理的地方性交通和車輛收費(fèi)項(xiàng)目以及汽車消費(fèi)信貸業(yè)務(wù)等一系列鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)的政策。</p><p>　

13、　———從今年3月1日起，我國(guó)將實(shí)行汽車報(bào)廢新標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，轎車等非運(yùn)營(yíng)車輛的使用年限延長(zhǎng)至15年。</p><p>　　綜合以上分析，2007年轎車的需求增長(zhǎng)速度可能略高于去年，估計(jì)增速在10％以上，兩三年以后，經(jīng)濟(jì)型家用轎車市場(chǎng)才有可能全面啟動(dòng)。這些都是投資者值得關(guān)注的。</p><p>　　AUTOMOBILE PROFESSION NALYSIS </p><p

14、>　　The developed country automobile labor already occupies the mature stage, future several years will be our country automobile demand grow a quicker time.</p><p>　　The developed country automobile labor

15、 already enters the mature period, global automobile annual output approximately 70 million, but the demand quantity only has about 50 million. The equipment utilization rate average 69%, far was lower than 1990 80%. Who

16、le world automobile industry average year rate of rise about 2.2%. According to incomplete statistics, the world passenger vehicle always held quantity approximately 550 million, 1/4 distributes in area and so on Western

17、 Europe, North America</p><p>　　country automobile labor already occupies the mature stage.</p><p>　　South America and Asian some developing nation automobile industry rate of rise slightly high

18、 somewhat, are the world grows quickest and most has the vigor the market, the automobile holds the quantity the yearly average rate of rise to approach 8%. Its automobile industry</p><p>　　occupies long-ter

19、m.</p><p>　　Our country in 1994 before the automobile industry fast growth, 1994 --- 1998, was at the low speed development phase, the yearly average output rate of increment only has 4.68%, fell behind to t

20、he same time our country GDP rate of rise. In 1999 starts to appear the fast growth, same year grew 12.39%, in 2000 grew 13.03%. Looked from the nearly 10 year our country automobile industry development situation that,

21、the margin of fluctuation is bigger, if compares with the same time our country GDP r</p><p>　　The automobile goes on the market company's average gross profit rate is 21%, business profit margin about 1

22、0%, is higher than the profession the average level. But gradually walks along with the automobile product selling price low as well as raw material price the and so on steel and iron rise, its gross profit rate also had

23、 the drop in the recent years. After our country joins WTO, imports the passenger vehicle price under to cause the domestically produced passenger vehicle to withstand in a</p><p>　　If our minute vehicle typ

24、e looked, the passenger vehicle business profit margin is highest, maintains about 10%. In the passenger vehicle enterprise joint capital enterprise's the and so on a Shanghai populace, steam populace business profit

25、 margin is higher, achieves about 16%, Tianjin automobile, Chang An automobile business profit margin below 6%. The truck profit margin occupies second, worst is the passenger train, the passenger train industry because

26、the enterprise</p><p>　　number multitudinous (nation altogether has 77), the majority enterprise's scale is very small, is unable the active control cost of operation. The passenger train class goes on t

27、he market company's average business profit margin approximately 5%. But the spare part enterprise's profit margin also walks along with the entire vehicle price lowers drops.</p><p>　　At present our

28、 country automobile profession profit level presents the polarization, part of enterprises' profit abilities are very strong, like chinese-foreign joint venture passenger vehicle enterprise and correlation spare part

29、 necessary enterprise. The spare part enterprise because quite a part belongs to the group interior necessary to supply goods, the necessary price far is higher than the market price, creates the automobile domestic prod

30、uct rate to be higher, the entire vehicle cost an</p><p>　　Looking from the global scope that, the automobile labor already enters the meager profit stage. In 1999 is general, the Toyota company only the pr

31、ofit margin distinction only has 3.2% and 2.79%. Other several big automobiles multinational corporation only the profit margin mostly is lower than 3%. At present our country automobile profession total productivity has

32、 surpassed 5 million, but every year output only has 2 million. Passenger vehicle production enterprise surpasses 13, year ultimate o</p><p>　　the annual output only has 47,000. The light passenger train ent

33、erprise disperses, the factory selects excessively much, the nation altogether has 40. The productivity blew off one half, moreover the productivity rate of rise still was higher than the demand the rate of rise. The fir

34、st 5 enterprises' production is 66%, 1/3 above light guest enterprise is at the loss condition. Spare part aspect, technical content low product and so on machinery like universal joint, automobile bearing , but inc

35、</p><p>　　In 2007 the passenger vehicle demand rate of rise slightly was possibly higher than last year, in particular economy vehicle</p><p>　　In 1999 the our country automobile industry large

36、scale growth, is a resilience which the for many years low speed has grown, or takes the fast growth the inflection point worth noting. Moreover the need attention is in 1999, in 2000 draws the main vehicle type which ou

37、r country automobile grows is the passenger train and the heavy truck. In 2000 falls the anticipated influence the consumer to the price, the passenger vehicle demand quantity certainly not obvious enlargement, the whole

38、 year prod</p><p>　　In 2007 the passenger vehicle market will appear some changes, for instance:</p><p>　　————the supplies structure changes, the massive new vehicle types will promote. Wonderfu

39、l Switzerland, match Europe, enlighten, the summer advantage Asia 2,006 and so on the economy passenger vehicle goes on the market as well as the price more inexpensive is more auspicious than, pleased reaches, QQ, rushe

40、s and so on 6 prefixes passenger vehicles (to refer in our country automobile table of contents management includes under passenger train table of contents part miniature passenger vehicle) jo</p><p>　　————g

41、overnment's policy guidance will stimulate the passenger vehicle to expend primarily. The country has appeared to last year including to cancel 238 unreasonable short-distance traffic and the vehicles charge project

42、as well as the automobile expends the policy</p><p>　　which the credit operation and so on a series of encouragements expends.</p><p>　　————from this March 1, our country implements the rejectio

43、n of car new standard, the passenger vehicle and so on the non- operation vehicles service life lengthens to 15 years.</p><p>　　Above the synthesis analyzes, in 2007 the passenger vehicle demand rate of rise

44、 slightly was possibly higher than last year, estimated speed-up above 10%, after 23 years, the economy home use passenger vehicle market only then had the possibility comprehensive start.</p><p>　　These all