第三章 機會、威脅與外部環(huán)境分析

1、第三章 機會、威脅與外部環(huán)境分析,霍國慶教授（中國科學院研究生院管理學院）leohuo@gscas.ac.cn,第三章 外部環(huán)境分析與戰(zhàn)略定位,宏觀外部環(huán)境分析行業(yè)環(huán)境分析戰(zhàn)略集團,3.1 外部環(huán)境及其分析步驟,外部環(huán)境分析的重點是識別和評價超出企業(yè)控制能力的外部發(fā)展趨勢與事件及其對企業(yè)的影響。外部環(huán)境分析的目的是確認有限的可以使企業(yè)受益的機會和企業(yè)應當回避的威脅，確定企業(yè)最佳的戰(zhàn)略定位，選擇適當?shù)膽?zhàn)略，從而最有效地利

2、用機會和回避威脅。,3.1 外部環(huán)境及其分析步驟,宏觀環(huán)境,行業(yè)環(huán)境,戰(zhàn)略集團,企業(yè),企業(yè)外部環(huán)境的三個層面,General,Environment,General,Environment,General,Environment,,The External Environment,,IndustryEnvironmentThreat of new entrantsPower of suppliersPower of buyers

3、Product substitutesIntensity of rivalry,CompetitorEnvironment,External Environmental Analysis,Strategic IntentStrategic Mission,The ExternalEnvironment,Analysis of general environment,Analysis of industry environmen

4、t,Analysis of competitor environment,The ExternalEnvironment,External Environmental Analysis,A continuous process which includes,Scanning: Identifying early signals of environmental changes and trendsMonitoring: Detec

5、ting meaning through ongoing observations of environmental changes and trendsForecasting: Developing projections of anticipated outcomes based on monitored changes and trendsAssessing: Determining the timing and import

6、ance of environmental changes and trends for firms’ strategies and their management,3.2.1 宏觀外部環(huán)境分析框架,PEST分析 Political Economic Social Technological,企業(yè)宏觀環(huán)境分析,（1）. 哪些環(huán)境因素正在影響企業(yè) （2）. 當前哪些因素的影響最重要？未來幾年呢？

7、 政治的/法律的 經(jīng)濟的 壟斷法律；環(huán)境保護法；稅法； 經(jīng)濟周期；GNP趨勢；利率； 對外貿(mào)易規(guī)定；勞動法； 貨幣供給；通貨膨脹；失業(yè)率； 政府穩(wěn)定性可支配收入； 能源適用性；成本 社會文化的 技術的 人

8、口統(tǒng)計；收入分配；社會穩(wěn) 政府對研究的投入；政府和行業(yè) 定；生活方式的變化；對工作、 對技術的重視；新技術的發(fā)明和 休閑的態(tài)度；教育水平；消費 進展；技術傳播的速度；折舊和 報廢的速度,,,,,,PEST分析,General,Environment,General,Environment,General

9、,Environment,,3.2.1 宏觀外部環(huán)境分析框架,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Sociocultural segment,Women in the workplaceWorkforce diversityAttitudes about quality of worklifeConcerns about environmentShifts in work and career preferencesShifts

10、 in product and service preferences,Economic segment,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Inflation ratesInterest ratesTrade deficits or surplusesBudget deficits or surplusesPersonal savings rateBusiness savings ratesGross domestic pr

11、oduct,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Political/Legal Segment,Antitrust lawsTaxation lawsDeregulation philosophiesLabor training lawsEducational philosophies and policies,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Technological Segment,Product innovationsA

12、pplications of knowledgeFocus of private and government-supported R&D expendituresNew communication technologies,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Demographic Segment,Population sizeAge structureGeographic distributionEthnic mix

13、Income distribution,3.2.2 宏觀外部環(huán)境要素分析,Global Segment,Important political eventsCritical global marketsNewly industrialize countriesDifferent cultural and institutional attributes,3.2.3 全球化環(huán)境,市場融合,相似的客戶需求全球客戶市場營銷轉(zhuǎn)移,規(guī)

14、模經(jīng)濟采購效率國別成本,貿(mào)易政策技術標準東道國政府的政策,相互依存全球競爭對手高額進口/出口,全球競爭,全球戰(zhàn)略,,,,,成本優(yōu)勢,政府影響,全球化驅(qū)動力,3.2.3 全球化環(huán)境,外部環(huán)境因素在全球化過程中出現(xiàn)整合趨勢。主要表現(xiàn)在：全球市場融合加速。在一些國家的市場中，客戶需求和偏好越來越相似（如消費者對牛仔服、軟飲料、電子用品的需求），以至于出現(xiàn)了全球客戶，為此，這些市場中的運營商必須才有全球化戰(zhàn)略，通過跨國營銷轉(zhuǎn)移

15、（營銷政策、品牌、廣告等都可以針對全球市場進行開發(fā)），進一步刺激全球需求并提高客戶期望，這樣又能夠為全球運營商帶來成本優(yōu)勢。,3.2.3 全球化環(huán)境,全球經(jīng)營的成本優(yōu)勢首先來自于規(guī)模經(jīng)濟，其次來自于在全球范圍內(nèi)的集中采購，再次來自于國別比較優(yōu)勢（如勞動力成本等）。政府行為和政策也有助于推動全球化。貿(mào)易政策鼓勵國家間的自由貿(mào)易，技術標準的統(tǒng)一有利于全球化合作，東道國政策則在一定程度上決定著外資的投向。全球競爭加劇。企業(yè)在不同國家的業(yè)務

16、的相互依賴性，競爭對手在全球范圍內(nèi)調(diào)配資源并展開競爭，外包引發(fā)的巨額進出口，都加劇了全球范圍的競爭。,3.3 行業(yè)環(huán)境分析,3.3.1 行業(yè)及行業(yè)生命周期3.3.2 波特五力模型3.3.3 戰(zhàn)略集團,3.3.1 行業(yè)及行業(yè)生命周期,行業(yè)泛指由于產(chǎn)品類似而相互競爭以滿足同類顧客需要的一組企業(yè)。行業(yè)是許多同類企業(yè)的總和。狹義的行業(yè)是指生產(chǎn)同類產(chǎn)品的一組企業(yè)；廣義的行業(yè)是指生產(chǎn)能夠相互替代的產(chǎn)品的一組企業(yè)。行業(yè)的概念也可以通過“部門”

17、一詞延伸到公共服務領域，如社會服務、醫(yī)療保健或教育部門等都可以看作是行業(yè)。一個企業(yè)是否具有長期發(fā)展?jié)摿Γ紫韧幍男袠I(yè)的性質(zhì)有關，而分析行業(yè)性質(zhì)的一個常用方法就是識別其處于行業(yè)生命周期的哪個階段。,3.3.1 行業(yè)及行業(yè)生命周期,,需求,,Embryonic導入期,Growth成長期,Shakeout動蕩期,Mature成熟期,Decline衰退期,,,,,,時 間,行業(yè)生命周期,3.3.1 行業(yè)及行業(yè)生命周期

18、,3.3.1 行業(yè)及行業(yè)生命周期,3.3.2 波特五力模型,Threat of new entrantsPower of suppliersPower of buyersProduct substitutesIntensity of rivalry,3.3.2 波特五力模型,Identify current and potential competitors and determine which firms serve the

19、m.Conduct competitive analysis.Recognize that suppliers and buyers can become competitors.Recognize that producers of potential substitutes may become competitors.,,Threat of New Entrants,Bargaining Power of Suppliers

20、,Bargaining Power of Buyers,Threat of Substitute Products,Rivalry Among Competing Firms,Five Forces ofCompetition,3.3.2 波特五力模型,Threat of New Entrants,Barriers to entry,Economies of scaleProduct differentiationCapital

21、requirementsSwitching costsAccess to distribution channelsCost disadvantages independent of scaleGovernment policyExpected retaliation,Bargaining Power of Suppliers,A supplier group is powerful when:,it is dominated

22、 by a few large companiessatisfactory substitute products are not available to industry firmsindustry firms are not a significant customer for the supplier groupsuppliers’ goods are critical to buyers’ marketplace suc

23、cesseffectiveness of suppliers’ products has created high switching costssuppliers are a credible threat to integrate forward into the buyers’ industry,Bargaining Power of Buyers,Buyers (customers) are powerful when:,t

24、hey purchase a large portion of an industry’s total outputthe sales of the product being purchased account for a significant portion of the seller’s annual revenuesthey could easily switch to another productthe indust

25、ry’s products are undifferentiated or standardized, and buyers pose a credible threat if they were to integrate backward into the seller’s industryThey can get access to more information,Threat of Substitute Products,P

26、roduct substitutes are strong threat when:,customers face few switching costssubstitute product’s price is lowersubstitute product’s quality and performance capabilities are equal to or greater than those of the compet

27、ing product,Intensity of Rivalry,Intensity of rivalry is stronger when competitors:,are numerous or equally balancedexperience slow industry growthhave high fixed costs or high storage costslack differentiation or low

28、 switching costsexperience high strategic stakeshave high exit barriers,High Exit Barriers,Common exit barriers include:,specialized assets (assets with values linked to a particular business or location)fixed costs

29、of exit such as labor agreementsstrategic interrelationships (relationships of mutual dependence between one business and other parts of a company’s operation, such as shared facilities and access to financial markets)

30、emotional barriers (career concerns, loyalty to employees, etc.)government and social restrictions,3.3.2 波特五力模型,與波特五力模型相關的問題：競爭環(huán)境中起關鍵作用的因素是什么？決定競爭要素的宏觀環(huán)境因素有哪些？這些要素會發(fā)生變化嗎？如何發(fā)生變化？特定競爭對手如何受這些要素影響？管理者能夠?qū)τ绊懯聵I(yè)部的競爭要素施加什么影

31、響？能否建立進入壁壘？能否提高供應商或顧客的影響力？能否找到戰(zhàn)勝競爭對手的方法？一些行業(yè)是否比其它行業(yè)更具吸引力？,3.3.3 戰(zhàn)略集團,Strategic group: a group of firms in an industry following the same or similar strategy along the same strategic dimensions.

32、 --Hitt戰(zhàn)略集團是一個行業(yè)內(nèi)部具有相似的戰(zhàn)略特點、遵循類似發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略或者在相似基礎上進行競爭的一組企業(yè)。 --Scholes,3.3.3 戰(zhàn)略集團,用以識別戰(zhàn)略集團的特征,3.3.3 戰(zhàn)略集團,戰(zhàn)略集團概念有助于理解以下問題：對任何一個特定的組織而言，誰是最直接的競爭對手？在每個戰(zhàn)略集團內(nèi)部，競爭最有可能在什么基礎上展開？各個戰(zhàn)略集

33、團之間在競爭基礎上有什么區(qū)別？特定組織從一個戰(zhàn)略集團轉(zhuǎn)到另一個戰(zhàn)略集團的可能性有多大？不同戰(zhàn)略集團之間的流動性大小取決于集團間相互進入壁壘的高低。識別組織潛在的機會與威脅。,Strategic Groups in the Pharmaceutical industry in USA,,,low,high,,low,high,Price Charged,R&D Spending,Proprietary Group·