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1、外文文獻(xiàn)翻外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯譯譯譯文、、外文原文原文：FundamentalInfmationAnalysis1.IntroductionFundamentalanalysisisaimedatdeterminingthevalueofcpatesecuritiesbyacarefulexaminationofkeyvaluedriverssuchasearningsriskgrowthcompetitiveposition.Inthecon

2、textofsuchanalysisweidentifybelowasetoffinancialvariables(fundamentals)claimedbyanalyststobeusefulinsecurityvaluationexaminetheseclaimsbyestimatingtheincrementalvaluerelevanceofthesevariablesoverearnings.Ourfindingssuppt

3、theincrementalvaluerelevanceofmostoftheidentifiedfundamentalsinfactfthe1980sthefundamentalsaddapproximately70%onaveragetotheexplanatypowerofearningswithrespecttoexcessreturns.Wealsoshowthatthereturnsfundamentalsrelationi

4、sconsiderablystrengthenedwhenitisconditionedonmacroeconomicvariablestherebydemonstratingtheimptanceofacontextualcapitalmarketanalysis.Fexampleseveralfundamentalsthatappearonlyweaklyvaluerelevantevenirrelevantintheuncondi

5、tionalanalysisexhibitstrongassociationwithreturnsunderspecificeconomicconditions(e.g.theaccountsreceivabletheprovisionfdoubtfulreceivablessignalsduringhighinflation).Fromageneralexaminationoftheroleoffundamentalsinsecuri

6、tyvaluationweturntotherelatedissuesofearningspersistencegrowththeearningsresponsecoefficient.Wehypothesizethatthefundamentalsignalsidentifiedinthisstudyareusedbyinveststoassessthepersistence(sometimesreferredtoas“quality

7、“)growthofreptedearnings.Weprovidesupptfthishypothesisbydemonstratingasignificantrelationbetweenanaggregatescereflectingtheinfmationinthefundamentalstwoindicatsofpersistence:theearningsresponsecoefficient($000)4.2%0.5%Tr

8、adeReceivables558.790490497362644($000)13.9%35.3%Inventies331.481262850269410($000)26.1%2.4%Theabovetableillustratesthatfthefirsthalfofthe198889fiscalyear[i.e.thesixmonthsending12311988]Harristradereceivablesinventiesadv

9、ancedmerapidlythansales.ThisadversetrendfigurestocompromiseHarrisshareearningsinthesecondhalfofthe198889fiscalyearendingJune30th.Thusthedisproptionate(tosales)increaseintwofundamentals—receivablesinventies—isusedasaleadi

10、ngindicatffutureearnings.Oursearchyielded12fundamentalsignals(asignalreferstoaspecificconfigurationofseveralfundamentalvariables).Theonlyionprocedureappliedduringthesearchprocesswastochooseoneofseveralalternativeconfigur

11、ationsofthesamefundamentalsuchasftheR&DsignalwheresomeanalystsusedthecontempaneouschangeinthefirmssalesasabenchmarkwhileothersusedthecrespondingindustryR&Dchange.Ourchoicesamongsuchalternativeswereguidedbyeconomictheyemp

12、iricalevidence.WeignedAnalystsrecommendationsthatdidnotpertaintofundamentals(e.g.OGloves[1987]preiontosearchfdiscrepanciesbetweenthe10Ktheannualrept).Analystsgenerallyattachauniqueinterpretationtoafundamentalsignal(e.g.a

13、disproptionateincreaseininventyconveysbadnews).Thisofcourseisnotalwaystheappropriateinterpretation.Fexampleadisproptionate(tosales)inventyincreasemightsometimesprovideapositivesignalaboutmanagersexpectationofsalesincreas

14、es.Neverthelessinitiallyinthenoncontextualpartofthisstudywefollowaparsimoniousapproachofexaminingtheextenttowhichansingleinterpretationofafundamental(i.e.theoneusedbyanalysts)isvalidfalargecrosssectionoffirms.Thefundamen

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