保險行業(yè)2019投資策略繼續(xù)堅守轉(zhuǎn)型，保險股基本面向好

1、目錄目錄一、行業(yè)保費端處一、行業(yè)保費端處于轉(zhuǎn)型期................................................................................................................................................3（一）保費增速逐月修復(fù)，三季度實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)正................................

2、............................3（二）人身險：壽險增速承壓，健康險高速增長........................................................4（三）財產(chǎn)險：車險增速居低，拖累整體保費增速......................................................5（四）投資端：規(guī)模穩(wěn)步增長，非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)減配................

3、..........................................6二、上市公司：聚二、上市公司：聚焦壽險轉(zhuǎn)型，關(guān)注價值提升轉(zhuǎn)型，關(guān)注價值提升................................................................................................................7（一）總體情況：四家公司業(yè)績增速出現(xiàn)分化.......

4、...................................................7（二）負(fù)債端：壽險仍靠續(xù)期拉動，產(chǎn)險增速下滑......................................................81、整體保費增速有所下滑.........................................................................82、壽險板

5、塊：增長主要靠續(xù)期拉動.................................................................93、產(chǎn)險板塊：手續(xù)費提升，利潤下滑..............................................................12（三）投資端：凈收益率水平穩(wěn)健，總體收益率下滑.......................................

6、............13（四）股價表現(xiàn)：估值逐步修復(fù)，整體表現(xiàn)強于大市...................................................151、基本面分析：三季度后估值逐步修復(fù)............................................................152、數(shù)量分析：保險股的超額收益統(tǒng)計測算...............................

7、...........................16三、長期趨勢三、長期趨勢:政策護(hù)航政策護(hù)航發(fā)展，保險需求具備展，保險需求具備釋放空間................................................................................................17（一）監(jiān)管促行業(yè)健康發(fā)展，提升服務(wù)實體經(jīng)濟能力............................

8、.......................17（二）人口老齡化趨勢確定，商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險正當(dāng)時.....................................................19（三）繼續(xù)堅持回歸保障，健康險產(chǎn)品具成長空間.....................................................221、“大健康”風(fēng)口快速增長，5年復(fù)合年均增長38%................

9、......................................................................................222、老齡化加劇醫(yī)保和個人支付壓力，醫(yī)保體系壓力催化需求..........................................233、對標(biāo)國外成熟市場，健康險業(yè)務(wù)空間超萬億........................................

10、..............25四、四、2019年保險股基本年保險股基本面向好向好........................................................................................................................................27（一）開門紅新單保費謹(jǐn)慎樂觀，增速有望改善....................

11、...................................27（二）保障型產(chǎn)品缺口仍在，看好健康險保費增長.....................................................31（三）產(chǎn)險端建議關(guān)注車險手續(xù)費政策...............................................................32（四）國債利率下行對評估利率影響無需過度擔(dān)憂..

12、...................................................32五、投資建議五、投資建議...........................................................................................................................................................

13、...........33六、風(fēng)險提示六、風(fēng)險提示......................................................................................................................................................................33插圖目錄插圖目錄...................

14、...........................................................................................................................................................34表格目錄表格目錄.......................................................

15、.......................................................................................................................3456.3%26.6%73.4%14.3%2.8%圖2：人身險保費占比仍在：人身險保費占比仍在7成之上成之上財產(chǎn)險壽險健康險人身意外傷害險資料來源：公司公告，（二）人身險：壽險增速承壓，健康險高速增長

16、（二）人身險：壽險增速承壓，健康險高速增長134號文影響仍在，壽險保費負(fù)增長。號文影響仍在，壽險保費負(fù)增長。壽險方面，受134號文落地的直接影響，壽險原保費收入同比增速仍為負(fù)。截至10月份，行業(yè)壽險原保費收入1.8萬億元，同比6%。堅持推進(jìn)保障型產(chǎn)品，健康險保費增速保持穩(wěn)健上升趨勢。堅持推進(jìn)保障型產(chǎn)品，健康險保費增速保持穩(wěn)健上升趨勢。截至10月行業(yè)健康險原保費收入4714億元，同比23%，健康險保費收入增速呈現(xiàn)出了持續(xù)抬升的態(tài)勢。主要歸