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1、FreeexchangeThegeographyofpovertyWkingouthowtohelpthewld’spoestdependsonwheretheyliveWHEREdothewld’spoliveTheobviousanswer:inpocountries.ButinarecentseriesofarticlesySumnerofBritain’sInstituteofDevelopmentStudiesshowedth

2、attheobviousansweriswrong.Fourfifthsofthosesurvivingonlessthan$2adayhefoundliveindleincomecountrieswithagrossnationalincomeperheadofbetween$1000$12500notpoones.Hisfindingreflectsthefactthatalongbutinequitableperiodofecon

3、omicgrowthhasliftedmanydevelopingcountriesintodleincomestatusbutleftaminityoftheirpopulationsmiredinpoverty.SincethecountriesinvolvedincludegiantslikeChinaIndiaevenaminityamountstoaverylargenumberofpeople.Thatmattersbeca

4、usedleincomecountriescanaffdtohelptheirownpo.Ifmostofthepovertyproblemlieswithintheirbdersthenfeignaidislessrelevanttopovertyreduction.Abetterwaytohelpwouldbetomakedleincomecountries’domesticpoliciesme“propo”.NowMrSumner

5、’sargumentfacesachallenge.AccdingtoHomiKharasoftheBrookingsInstitutionrewRogersonofBritain’sOverseasDevelopmentInstitute“by2025mostabsolutepovertywillonceagainbeconcentratedinlowincomecountries.”Theyarguethatasdleincomec

6、ountriescontinuetomakeprogressagainstpovertyitsincidencetherewillfall.Howeverthenumberofpopeopleisgrowingin“fragile”stateswhichtheauthsdefineascountrieswhichcannotmeettheirpopulations’expectationsmanagethesethroughthepol

7、iticalprocess(soundslikesomeEuropeannationstoo).ThepatternthatMrSumnerdescribestheysayisapassingphase.MessrsKharasRogersoncalculatethatthenumberofpoin“nonfragile”stateshasfallenfromalmost2billionin1990toaround500mnowthey

8、thinkitwillgoondecliningtoaround200mby2025.Butthenumberofpoinfragilestatesisnotfalling—atestamentbothtothegrowingnumberofpounstableplacestotheirfastpopulationgrowth.Thistotalhasstayedflatatabout500msince1990theauthsthink

9、willbarelyshiftuntil2025.AsearlyasnextyearthenumberofpoinwhataresometimescalledFRACAS(fragileconflictaffectedstates)couldbegreaterthanthenumberinstableones.ThatwouldimplysomethingdifferenttoMrSumner’sview:insteadofbeingi

10、rrelevanttopovertyreductionfeignaidwillcontinuetobevitalsincefragilestates(unlikedleincomeones)cannotaffdtohelpthepobutinsteadneedhelpthemselves.CanthesetwoaccountsbesquaredItiswthnotingthatthereisagroupofcountriesthatar

11、ebothdleincomefragile.ThisgroupsometimescalledMIFFS(dleincomefragilefailedstates)includesIraqNigeriaPakistanYemen—alllargepopulousplaces.In2011GeoffreyGertzLaurenceChyalsoofBrookingscalculatedthatalmostafifthofpeoplelivi

12、ngonlessthan$1.25adayarecitizensofMIFFS.Sotherearealmost200mpopeopleindleincomefragilestateswhoappearintheaccountsofbothMrSumnerMessrsKharasRogerson.Becauseofthisoverlapitispossibletoarguebothhaveapointarejustusingdiffer

13、entlabels.Thereisanotherexplanationfthedifferencesbetweenthem:MrSumnerisdescribingthepresentdaysituationMessrsKharasRogersonarefecastingwhatmighthappenin2025.ThetroubleisthatMrSumnerhasalsoproducedfecastsinhiscasef202020

14、30theyAngelaAttwoodhercolleaguesasked160undergraduates—80women80men—todooneoffourthings:drinkbeeroutofastraightglassdrinkbeeroutofaflute(aglasswhosesidescurveoutwardtowardstherim)drinklemonadefromoneofthesetwostsofglass.

15、Tocomplicatemattersfurthersomeoftheglasseswerefullwhereasotherswerehalffull.Thoughasiscommonpracticeinstudiesofthisstparticipantsweremisledaboutitstruenaturewereshownfilmsaskedtodoalanguagetestafterwardstosupptthismisdir

16、ectionwhatDrAttwoodherteamwerereallyinterestedinwashowquicklythevariousdrinkswouldbedrunk.Theanswerwasthatafullstraightglassofbeerwaspolishedoffin11minutesonaverage.Afullflutebycontrastwasdownthehatchinsevenwhichwasalsot

17、heamountoftimeittooktodrinkafullglassoflemonaderegardlessofthetypeofvessel.Ifaglassstartedhalffullhoweverneitheritsshapenitscontentsmattered.Itwasdrunkinanaverageoffiveminutes.DrAttwood’shypothesisisthatabeerdrinkerwishi

18、ngtopacehimselfthroughaneveningismonitingthevolumeremainingintheglassprobablywithreferencetothehalfwaymark.(Alemonadedrinkerneednotwrysomuchsincethereisnochanceofgettingdrunk.)Acurvedsidedglassthoughmakesexercisingsuchju

19、dgmenthard—asshedemonstratedbycallinghervolunteersbackaweeklateraskingthemtoestimatefrompictureshowfullvariousglasseswere.Mostvolunteersthoughtthehalfwaymarkintheflutewaslowerthanitstruevalueifavolunteerhaddrunkfromsucha

20、glassiginallythedegreeofmisestimationcrelatedwithhowfasthehaddrunk.Ifaglassishalffulltostartwithhoweverthisreferencepointislostfromthebeginning.TheupshotasDrAttwoodreptsinthePublicLibraryofScienceisthatstraightglasseshav

21、eit.ThoughbeerflutesarenotcommoninBritishpubs(theyaresometimesusedfspecialistbrews)herobservationthattheshapeofaglasscanaffecthowfastitisdrunkfrombearsinvestigation.Bothhealthcampaignersbrewerieswouldbeinterestedintheres

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