電力設(shè)備及新能源行業(yè)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報告（2）硅片~路線之爭塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺仍將持續(xù)

1、電力設(shè)備及新能源深度報告光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報告（2）：硅片—路線之爭塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺——仍將持續(xù)目錄行業(yè)概括：技術(shù)路線分界點，單晶勝券已在握................................................5制造環(huán)節(jié)起點，技術(shù)路線分野....................................................5拉棒鑄錠成本與轉(zhuǎn)換效率拉鋸決定技術(shù)路線................

2、.......................5單晶奪取性價比優(yōu)勢，未來份額持續(xù)看漲..........................................6行業(yè)分析：供給過剩下的寡頭競爭市場，高毛利時代成為歷史.......................7競爭格局：過剩背景下的寡頭市場，規(guī)模壁壘初步形成..............................7第三方為主、一體化為輔的供應(yīng)格局8細分市場淺水難養(yǎng)蛟龍，單

3、多晶龍頭面臨激烈競爭9供過于求將持續(xù)，成本同質(zhì)化導(dǎo)致毛利率處于低位10上游：單多晶硅料供需情況迥異，多晶硅價差影響下游競爭格局.....................11下游：獨立大型電池廠崛起，下游議價能力有所提升..............................14新進入者和替代品威脅不大，垂直廠商有擴張動力................................14結(jié)論：毛利率繼續(xù)探底下行，未來是龍頭的薄利多銷

4、時代..........................15成本解析：多晶坐困愁城，單晶步步進逼.....................................................16長晶環(huán)節(jié)成本優(yōu)勢是多晶護城河................................................16長晶：單晶挖掘規(guī)模紅利，多晶降本空間狹小.................................

5、...17切片：金剛線革命窗口期已過，單晶切割成本略占優(yōu)..............................19效率：新技術(shù)鞏固單晶優(yōu)勢，多晶竭力縮小差距..................................21其他：單多晶硅料采購價差成為再平衡砝碼......................................22小結(jié)：多晶成本優(yōu)勢喪失殆盡，市場份額將淪為少數(shù).....................

6、.........23定價機制：多晶硅片筑底，單晶硅片彈性大.................................................24EPC投資成本相等決定價差下限................................................25全生命周期發(fā)電量增益決定價差上限............................................27多晶是價格之錨，單晶掌握

7、定價權(quán)..............................................28其他路線：新技術(shù)潛在威脅不小，但也面臨諸多瓶頸...................................29CCZ直拉單晶：成本攤薄優(yōu)勢明顯，生產(chǎn)問題仍待解決............................29鑄錠單晶：目前成本優(yōu)勢不明顯，未來優(yōu)化空間大................................

8、31結(jié)論：單多晶份額反轉(zhuǎn)，全行業(yè)低毛利局面將持續(xù).......................................32投資建議：單晶勝局已定，利潤率是唯一不確定因素...................................32風(fēng)險提示...........................................................................................

9、...........33電力設(shè)備及新能源深度報告光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報告（2）：硅片—路線之爭塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺——仍將持續(xù)圖表35：多晶鑄錠成本規(guī)模效應(yīng)相對較弱..................................................................................18圖表36：多晶鑄錠成本拆分明細.........................................

10、........................................................18圖表37：單晶拉棒成本拆分明細.................................................................................................18圖表38：當(dāng)前單多晶硅錠每爐成本測算..............................

11、........................................................18圖表39：金剛線切片占比變化趨勢.............................................................................................19圖表40：不同切片方式成本對比....................................

12、.............................................................19圖表41：金剛線切片與砂漿切片成本差異比較...........................................................................20圖表42：2016年隆基股份推廣金剛線切割大幅降低非硅成本..............................

13、......................20圖表43：單晶硅片切片成本拆分.................................................................................................20圖表44：多晶硅片切片成本拆分...................................................................

14、..............................20圖表45：單多晶切片線耗及非硅成本中金剛線成本差異.............................................................21圖表46：單晶電池較多晶電池始終保持一定的效率優(yōu)勢.............................................................21圖表47：濕法黑硅技術(shù)在

15、四條黑硅路線中性價比更為突出.........................................................22圖表48：黑硅與PERC技術(shù)結(jié)合可顯著提高電池效率...............................................................22圖表49：鑄錠單晶技術(shù)能夠顯著縮小與單晶產(chǎn)品的效率差...............................

16、..........................22圖表50：單多晶價差總體呈擴大趨勢..........................................................................................23圖表51：硅料產(chǎn)出中單晶料比例變動對單多晶料價差影響分析..................................................23圖表5

17、2：理想單多晶硅片成本底部測算......................................................................................24圖表53：10MW集中式光伏電站投資明細（萬元）...................................................................25圖表54：EPC成本相同時單多晶硅片價格計算..

18、........................................................................26圖表55：多晶硅片價格與組件功率的敏感性分析........................................................................27圖表56：單晶PERC組件功率變化對硅片價差影響較大........................

19、....................................27圖表57：度電成本相同時單多晶硅片價格計算...........................................................................27圖表58：價差下限到效益差區(qū)間中值的單晶硅片利潤敏感性分析..............................................28圖表59：CC

20、Z法生長原理示意圖................................................................................................29圖表60：CCZ相比傳統(tǒng)方案提高了生產(chǎn)效率..............................................................................29圖表61：CCZ和RCZ

21、拉晶工序時間對比...................................................................................30圖表62：RCZ和CCZ產(chǎn)能及晶棒尺寸對比...............................................................................30圖表63：尺寸在3040mm的顆粒硅.......

22、....................................................................................30圖表64：準單晶長晶流程示意圖.................................................................................................31圖表65：準單晶長晶流程示意圖.....

23、............................................................................................31圖表66：準單晶相比普通多晶的成本增量..................................................................................32圖表67：準單晶產(chǎn)品良率分析.........