證 券行業(yè)12月投資策略市場回暖券商業(yè)績改善，衍生品市場熱度提升

1、目錄11月業(yè)績：低基數疊加市場回暖，業(yè)績迎來改善.........................................4單月業(yè)績環(huán)比改善，累計降幅有所收窄...............................................................4資管利潤增速分化，投行利潤整體下滑........................................................

2、.......6市場概況...........................................................................7券商板塊跑贏大盤.................................................................................7券商個股延續(xù)上漲..................................

3、...............................................7質押回購利率回升.................................................................................8市場回顧...........................................................................8經紀

4、業(yè)務：市場交易環(huán)比提升.......................................................................8投行業(yè)務：股債融資均有增加.......................................................................9資本中介：兩融規(guī)模逐步企穩(wěn).......................................

5、...............................11資管業(yè)務：集合資管發(fā)行提速......................................................................13投資業(yè)務：股票市場有所回暖......................................................................13行業(yè)新聞和公司公告........

6、........................................................15投資建議..........................................................................17圖表目錄圖1：7天上證所新質押式國債回購利率（單位：%）......................................................

7、..........................................8圖2：非銀板塊資金價格情況（單位：%）.................................................................................................................8圖3：11月兩市股基成交額為8.87萬億（單位：億元）.................

8、...........................................................................9圖4：11月兩市日均股基成交額為4029.79億元（單位：億元）...............................................................................9圖5：新增投資者開戶數量（單位：萬人）.............

9、....................................................................................................9圖6：行業(yè)傭金費率變動（單位：%）......................................................................................................

10、..................9圖7：11月IPO融資規(guī)模環(huán)比下滑（單位：億元）..................................................................................................10圖8：11月增發(fā)融資規(guī)模有所回升（單位：億元）......................................................

11、.............................................10圖9：兩融余額環(huán)比減少1.2億元至0.77萬億元（單位：億元，%）......................................................................11圖10：11月份融資凈買入額0.09億元（單位：億元）.........................................

12、...................................................11圖11：股票質押市值有所增加（單位：億元，%）...................................................................................................12圖12：3年期和5年期公司債到期收益率有所下滑（單位：%）..............

13、...............................................................12圖13：2018年11月份集合資管新成立產品456只（單位：只，億份）.................................................................13圖14：滬深300和創(chuàng)業(yè)板指年初至今漲跌幅（單位：%）..........................

14、.............................................................14圖15：中債企業(yè)債到期收益率（單位：%）.............................................................................................................14表1：上市券商11月經營數據（單位：億元，%）...

15、..................................................................................................4表2：上市券商111月經營數據（單位：億元，%）.................................................................................................

16、.511月業(yè)績：低基數疊加市場回暖，業(yè)績迎來改善單月業(yè)績環(huán)比改善，累計降幅有所收窄11月業(yè)績環(huán)比下滑。38家上市券商公布11月經營業(yè)績，合計實現營業(yè)收入174.35億元，環(huán)比65.5%；合計實現凈利潤62.62億元，環(huán)比153.7%?？杀瓤趶较拢?1家上市券商合計111月累計實現營業(yè)收入1480.32億元，同比17.7%，累計實現凈利潤495.68億元，同比30.9%，母公司口徑凈資產合計約1.22萬億元，環(huán)比0.6%。環(huán)比來看，除了華

17、泰證券、安信證券、、、第一創(chuàng)業(yè)和華西證券等券商凈利潤環(huán)比略有下滑之外，其余券商均呈現增長態(tài)勢；其中海通證券、華安證券增速較快，分別為1329.7%、680.8%，主要系上月業(yè)績基數較低；中信證券、國泰君安等龍頭券商業(yè)績增長穩(wěn)健，環(huán)比變動50.3%和55.4%；因今年權益市場下行疊加交易同比收縮明顯，累計來看上市券商業(yè)績均呈現下滑態(tài)勢。表1：上市券商11月經營數據（單位：億元，%）公司名稱營業(yè)收入環(huán)比同比凈利潤環(huán)比同比凈資產環(huán)比中信證券1

18、1.726.4%25.2%5.8450.3%18.9%1261.961.3%國泰君安12.7348.2%31.4%4.8655.4%41.6%1122.800.4%海通證券13.31294.6%83.3%7.511329.7%260.3%1085.950.7%華泰證券8.386.4%39.9%3.4323.3%39.3%949.650.3%廣發(fā)證券9.8094.4%24.5%4.16187.1%39.0%762.410.5%10.679

19、7.8%0.3%4.90214.6%8.7%754.020.6%中國銀河10.02131.2%25.3%4.30241.5%49.5%644.850.8%9.3054.4%11.6%2.878.4%7.1%627.760.5%國信證券9.8071.1%0.2%5.33248.2%81.8%516.811.2%光大證券8.12555.1%5.7%2.9625.8%487.060.5%東方證券5.1151.7%3.6%1.77126.3%1

20、6.1%487.221.0%方正證券4.8656.1%91.6%1.50195.6%2021.9%379.240.5%興業(yè)證券4.60364.5%13.6%0.2438.4%309.010.7%安信證券6.9459.7%83.6%1.424.0%42.7%306.660.1%長江證券4.08252.6%72.5%0.613449.7%256.810.4%國元證券2.52239.0%40.3%1.24124.6%237.200.3%東吳證

21、券2.819.5%89.5%0.715.0%142.8%198.560.0%東興證券2.0816.8%28.7%0.555.0%62.5%194.621.1%國金證券3.1847.8%25.9%0.9983.9%20.8%191.790.6%西南證券1.3636.4%67.3%0.0299.2%187.080.3%西部證券1.8649.9%19.2%0.258.4%68.9%175.760.2%1.957.7%29.4%0.04120.