海外醫(yī)藥行業(yè)風(fēng)雨前行，逆周期飛揚(yáng)又一年

1、HealthcareAnalystZhangYidongzhangyd@.cnSAC:S0190517070001SFC:BIS749ContactIsabellaCaicaiyingchen@.cnSFC：BLT552XiangQiujingxiangqiujing@.cnACountercyclicalIndustryGoingUpWithFluctuation11282018Newpoliciescausenewmarketpat

2、ternsnewdifferentiation.Withtherealizationof“universalcoverage”ofmedicalinsurancetheagingofthepopulationthecostcontrolofmedicalinsuranceisaninevitabletrend.Inthefuturedrivenbyrefinedfeescontrollingclinicalpathwaymanageme

3、ntdrugratiocontrollingvolumeprocurementthestructuraldifferentiationofthepharmaceuticalindustrywillbealongtermtrend.Thedifferencesbetweenproductswillbecomelargerlargerthestructuralopptunitiesinpharmaceuticalswillbehighlig

4、hted.Despitechallengesdifficulties2018isstillayearofharvest.Theperfmanceofthepharmaceuticalsecthasincreasedfurtherin2018.Despitethepolicydisturbanceinthethirdquartertheperfmanceofmostcompaniesisstillinastablerange.Thisye

5、arlistedpharmaceuticalcompanieshaveobtainedfruitfulnewdrugswhichlaysthefoundationfmediumtermgrowth.ThestockpriceofthesectsinmedicaldevicesChinesemedicinespharmaceuticalcirculationCROperfmedwell.Howeverthepharmaceuticalse

6、ctmedicalservicessectbothfellabout20%whichmeansthatthestockpricevaluationcontinuedtodifferentiateamongsects.In2019themedicalindustrywillstillbecountercyclicalcontinuetogrowtherewillbestilllotsofinvestmentopptunitiesinthe

7、subsects:?Inthepharmaceuticalsectunderthegeneraltrendofcostcontrolofmedicalinsurancetheindustrysecologyisfacingreshaping.LeadingenterpriseswithR2)uncertaintyintheprogresssuccessrateofnewproductdevelopment3)uncertaintyinm

8、arketingafterapproving.Overweight（Maintained）圖表目錄表1、2015年2018年藥品審評(píng)審批政策................................6表2、優(yōu)先審評(píng)發(fā)布進(jìn)展.........................................................................................7表3、優(yōu)先審評(píng)代表品種獲批上市的

9、時(shí)間（天）..................................................8表4、一致性評(píng)價(jià)關(guān)鍵政策梳理.............................................................................8表5、通過(guò)一致性評(píng)價(jià)品種發(fā)布進(jìn)展........................................................

10、.............9表6、47城市藥品集中采購(gòu)品種與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局（一致性評(píng)價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)截止2018.11.15）..................................................................................................................................13表7、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度決定基藥中標(biāo)價(jià)維護(hù)能力（20112013年）....

11、.........................18表8、抗癌藥醫(yī)保準(zhǔn)入專項(xiàng)談判藥品結(jié)果...........................................................21表9、基本藥物目錄調(diào)入和調(diào)出的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)...............................................................23表10、部分重點(diǎn)公司品種調(diào)入基藥目錄情況............

12、..........................................25表11、未進(jìn)入國(guó)家醫(yī)保目錄的新納入基藥品種..................................................26表12.港股醫(yī)藥板塊近一年收入利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)...........................................................29表13.港股醫(yī)藥公司和子版塊上半年業(yè)績(jī)情況..

13、................................................29表14：已披露三季報(bào)香港上市公司業(yè)績(jī)情況......................................................30表15：2018年港股上市醫(yī)藥公司新藥及仿制藥上市一覽表.............................31表16.2018年港股醫(yī)藥板塊部分新上市獨(dú)角獸公司一覽........

14、.........................32表17.港股未盈利生物科技公司上市情況總結(jié)（截止2018.11.23）.................32表18.港股醫(yī)藥公司和子版塊估值情況...............................................................34表19：全國(guó)性流通商業(yè)20172018Q3收入利潤(rùn)情況.............................

15、.............37表20：各省市完全執(zhí)行兩票制的時(shí)間.................................................................37圖1、國(guó)家醫(yī)療保障局職能整合...........................................................................11圖2、分級(jí)診療解決醫(yī)療供需矛盾...............

16、........................................................27圖3、醫(yī)生資源是醫(yī)療體系的核心.......................................................................27圖4、全國(guó)各地分級(jí)診療政策措施最新進(jìn)展.......................................................

17、28圖5、上?！?11”模式示意圖.........................................................................28圖6、我國(guó)醫(yī)聯(lián)體合作示意圖...............................................................................28圖7.中藥配方顆粒市場(chǎng)規(guī)模（億元）.................

18、...............................................39圖8.配方顆粒銷售額占中藥飲片比例................................................................39圖9.復(fù)星醫(yī)藥（2196.HK）........................................................................

19、............43圖10.中國(guó)中藥（0570.HK）..................................................................................43圖11.康哲藥業(yè)（0867.HK）..................................................................................43圖12.

20、石藥集團(tuán)（1093.HK）..................................................................................43圖13.國(guó)藥控股（1099.HK）..................................................................................43圖14.中國(guó)生物制藥（1177.HK）...

21、.....................................................................43圖15.三生制藥（1530.HK）..................................................................................44圖16.綠葉制藥（2186.HK）...............................