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1、GlobalCommoditiesResearch07June2019MetalsQuarterlyDespitetherallygoldstilloffersacheaplatecyclehedge.Wetarget$1460oz.GlobalCommoditiesResearchNatashaKaneva(1212)8343175natasha.kaneva@JPMganChaseBankNAGregyC.Shearer(4420)

2、71348161gregy.c.shearer@J.P.MganSecuritiesplcThomasAnthonjAC(4420)77427850thomas.e.anthonj@J.P.MganSecuritiesplcLadislavJankovicAC(1212)8349618ladislav.jankovic@J.P.MganSecuritiesLLCSeepage47fanalystcertificationimptantd

3、isclosures.?Datatrackingsuggeststheslowdownintheglobaleconomyextendedinto2Q19.TheMayglobalmanufacturingPMIreleasedthisweekshowedtheindexfalling0.6pointsto49.8markingthe16thconsecutivemonthofanuninterruptedslideinglobalma

4、nufacturingdippingintocontractionaryterrity.?Basemetalsentered2Qtradingatan18%premiumvsunderlyingPMIwerepricinginareboundratherthanslumpinglobalmanufacturing.Evenafterlosing9%overthepasttwomonthsthecomplexisstillpricinga

5、slightlymethanonepointriseinJPM’sglobalmanufacturingPMIto51.2.Inotherwdsitistradingatabouta13%premium.?BasemetalsvaluationsarenolongerasstretchedastheywereinFebruaryMarchwhenwefirstturnedneutralthenbearishonthespace.Thep

6、ricedgrowthhurdlealsodoesnotappearashighrelativetowhatcouldbedeliveredintheneartermgiventhelikelypolicyresponsesfromChinatheUSleavinguswithanoverallconstructiveshttermbiasin3Qrelativetospotlevels.?Weopttomaintainournegat

7、ive4Q19outlookfbasemetalsthoughgiventheageofthecycle.Wekeepasharpend2019selloffinourbasecaseacrossindustrialmetalsalthoughwehavetoadmitthatourfecastedpricelevelsdon’tlookparticularlybearishvscurrentspotlevels.?Withtheunf

8、avable2Qgoldcatalystslargelybehinduswemaintainourbullishoutlookongoldover2H19into2020giventhemetal’suniquelatecycleacteristics.?Ourreasoninghasn’tchanged.Wecertainlyseescopefgoldtooutperfminabusinesscyclethathasbecomethe

9、longestonrecd.?Intermsofvaluationstheextremeslideinyieldshasleftgoldspotvaluationsfairlyattractivefinvestslookingfarecessionhedge:ourfairvaluemodelshowsthatcurrentspotgoldpricesareabout$25oztoocheapvs.real10yearTreasuryy

10、ields.?Ourbearishbiasf2Q19wkedwellwiththeexceptionofzincallotherbasepreciousmetalsperfmedinlinewithourexpectationsresultinginonlyslightmarktomarketadjustments.Aluminumasidewemakeonlycosmeticchangestoour3Qpricefecastswhic

11、hleavesusquiteconstructivethebasemetalssectfthequarterrelativetospotprices.Wealsoopttokeepour4Q19pricefecastslargelyunchanged.?Technicals:Thebroaderdownconsolidationinthemetalssect(bothpreciousbase)hasreachedcountertrend

12、declinetargetswhichmeansthestartwindowfabroadercountertrendrallyiscurrentlyopen.ThisviewisalsosupptedbythefactthattheUSDuptrendshowssignsoftrendexhaustionsothatadeepersetbackcouldbelooming.?Derivatives:Therisksaretilting

13、towardashallowconsolidationingoldvols.Wethinkit’sopptunetopositionfcapturingvolcarryRVingATMvolsvstacticallyoverextendedskewvolsvialongATMvs.sht25DdeltahedgedXAUUSDcallsinveganotionals.3GlobalCommoditiesResearchMetalsQua

14、rterly07June2019NatashaKaneva(1212)8343175natasha.kaneva@GregyC.Shearer(4420)71348161gregy.c.shearer@ThomasAnthonj(4420)77427850thomas.e.anthonj@LadislavJankovic(1212)8349618ladislav.jankovic@pricingaslightlymethanonepoi

15、ntriseinJPM’sglobalmanufacturingPMIto51.2.Inotherwdsitistradingatabout13%premiumonanaggregatebasis(Exhibit3).BasemetalsvaluationsarenolongerasstretchedastheywereinFebruaryMarchwhenwefirstturnedneutralthenbearishonthespac

16、e(Withpricetargetreachedthetensionbetweenweakmacrodataconstructivemoarypolicykeepsusneutral22February2019Stretchedvaluationswarrantcautiononmetalsinto2Qbutfirmergrowthshouldreopenupsidein3Q11March2019).Thepricedgrowthhur

17、dlealsodoesnotappearashighrelativetowhatcouldbedeliveredintheneartermgiventhelikelypolicyresponsesfromChinatheUSleavinguswithanoverallconstructiveshttermbiasin3Qrelativetospotlevels.Asvaluationsconvergewithrealityassumin

18、gsomelevelofstabilizationinglobalgrowththesectcouldbecometacticallyinterestingagainparticularlyifChinesepolicymakersannouncesomemeimmediatefiscalmoarysupptinresponsetotariffsthewholerecenttradewarescalationitselfisunwoun

19、dwiththestrokeofapen.Fnowweopttomaintainournegative4Q19outlookfbasemetalsthoughgiventheageofthecyclethesignificantlikelihoodofamacrorolloverin2020.Wekeepasharpend2019selloffinourbasecaseacrossindustrialmetalsalthoughweha

20、vetoadmitthatourfecastedpricelevelsdon’tlookparticularlybearishvscurrentspotlevels.Exhibit3:GlobalPMIBloombergIndustrialMetalsSubindexLHS:PMIIndexRHS:BCOMINIndexSource:BloombergJ.P.MganCommoditiesResearchUniquelatecyclea

21、cteristicsofpreciousmetalskeepusbullishin2H19Withtheunfavable2Qgoldcatalystslargelybehinduswemaintainourbullishoutlookongoldover2H19into2020giventhemetal’suniquelatecycleacteristics.Ourreasoninghasn’tchanged.Wecertainlys

22、eescopefgoldtooutperfminabusinesscyclethatinMarchbecamethelongestonrecd.Inthemostoptimisticscenarioglobalcentralbankssucceedinliftinggrowthextendingthecyclebumpinginflationhigher.Goldtendstoperfmexceptionallywellduringsu

23、chlatecycleperiodsaslongastheUSdollartradesatleastneutraltolower.InanegativescenarioasgrowthslipslowertheFedpauseturnsintoFedcutsgoldalsotendstooutperfm.Inotherwdswethinkbeinglonggoldover2H19into2020offersuniquehedgestob

24、othabullishbearishmacronarrative.MeoverthemetalisuniquelypositionedtohedgeaplethaofotherrisksbeitanexplicitcollapseinUSChinatradetalksahardBrexitpoliticalimpasseonCapitolHill.Intermsofvaluationssignsofeconomicdistresshav

25、edeliveredextremebondmarketpricing.AnaggressiveresponsefromtheFedtoafurtherdeteriationingrowthappearstobethemodaloutcomeimpliedbytheOIScurvewhichisnowpricingtwofullcutsbyDecember2019followedbyanothercutahalfbytheendof202

26、0.At2.12%thebenchmark10yearnote’syieldhaspedtoitslowestlevelsinceSeptember2017—downmethanafullpercentagepointsinceitsrecenthighinOctober—istradingbelowthatofthethreemonthbill(2.31%)furtherstokingfearsofrecession.Theextre

27、meslideinyieldshasleftgoldspotvaluationsfairlyattractivefinvestslookingfarecessionhedge:ourfairvaluemodelshowsthatcurrentspotgoldpricesareabout$25oztoocheapvs.real10yearTreasuryyields(Exhibit4).Exhibit4:Gold’spremiumdisc

28、ountto10yearrealyieldsUS$ozSource:BloombergJ.P.MganCommoditiesResearch809010011012013014049505152535455Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16Oct16Jan17Apr17Jul17Oct17Jan18Apr18Jul18Oct18Jan19Apr19PMIBCOM(55)(5)4595145Dec17J

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