2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、MMChinaAutos&SharedMobilityDrivetoTurnaroundin20202019hasseentheweakestsalesftheChineseautomarketindecades.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020faturnaroundwhichcouldbenefitJapaneseluxurybrsonupgradedem.Trough

2、valuationsleadustoraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractive.WealsoupgradeSAICtoOW.MganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcou

3、ldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendo

4、fthisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbya

5、researchanalystaccount.September8201909:00PMGMTMMChinaAutos&SharedMobilityDrivetoTurnaroundin20202019hasseentheweakestsalesftheChineseautomarketindecades.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020faturnaroundwhichc

6、ouldbenefitJapaneseluxurybrsonupgradedem.TroughvaluationsleadustoraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractive.WealsoupgradeSAICtoOW.Autosalessettoimprovein2020afterpo2019:WithlacklustermacroindicatswsethanexpectedautosalesYTD2019iss

7、ettobetheweakestyearfautosalesgrowthinChinasince1990welowerour2019PVsalesgrowthfecastfroma5%yoydeclinetoa78%decline.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020notethisis~5yearssincethepreviousgovernmentstimuluspolic

8、ieswereintroducedinOctober2015.Weexpectthetohighendbrstobenefitfromthisreplacementcycledrivenbyconsumerupgradedem.AmongautoOEMsourfavitesegmentremainsluxuryJapanesebrswhereweexpecttoseecontinuedmarketsharegains.Weadjusto

9、ur2020ePVsalesgrowthfecastfrom3%to12%in2020efChinawhichisthehighestgrowthamongmajglobalmarketscomparedto3%inJapan1%inKea6%inUS2%inEurope.Marketpricedinweakexpectations:HsharelistedOEMshaveonlyseen~10%sharepricereturnsYTD

10、after~50%declinesin2018.Since2018ChineseautoOEMshaveunderperfmedtheHangSengIndexby35%alsounderperfmedmajUSEuropeanJapaneseOEMs.ManyofourOWratedstocksaretradingnearhisticaltroughvaluationstheindustryaveragePEisnowat1stard

11、deviationbelowitshisticalaverage.Webelievethecurrentsharepricesarenottakingintoconsiderationthepossibilityofimprovedautodemnextyear.WHAT’SCHANGEDSAICMotCp.Ltd.FromTatingEqualweightOverweightDongfengMotGroupPriceTargetHK$

12、8.00HK$10.00ChinaAutos&SharedMobilityIndustryViewInLineAttractivePossibleautostimulus:OnAugust272019ChinasStateCouncilissuedapolicypackagetopromoteconsumption.Ftheautosectiturgedlocalgovernmentstograduallyloosencancelexi

13、stinglicenseplaterestrictionsaccdingtothelocalsituation.ItalsourgedlocalgovernmentswithsufficientresourcestosupptthepurchaseofNEVs.Webelievethelocalgovernmentsmayimplementthesepoliciesin2020whichcouldsupptautodem.Outlook

14、f2H192020:Whilewenowexpect78%industrysalesvolumedeclinesf201912%salesvolumegrowthf2020fthesixmajHsharelistedOEMswecoverweexpect0.3%salesvolumedeclinesf20194.5%salesvolumegrowthin2020asweexpectthemajOEMstotakemarketsharef

15、romsmallerplayers.Weexpectanaverageof14%yoyprofitdeclinefthe6OEMsf2019Ebut8%profitgrowthf2020EwithourupdatedassumptionsfDongfeng.Riskstoourratings:Ifpressureonthemacroeconomylingersin2020weseedownsiderisktoourfecasts.How

16、everevenifthedownturnintheautomarketcontinueswestillexpectluxuryJapanesebrstoberesilientaswasthecasein201819.Recommendations:WeremainOWonBrillianceBAICgiventheirluxurybrexposureonDongfengGACftheirJapanesebrexposure.Weals

17、oupgradeSAICtoOWfromEWwithanunchangedPTonvaluation.WearebearishondomesticbrswhichweexpecttolosesharefromJVbrs.WeremainEWonGWMUWonGeelyasGeelytradesat14x2019EPEmuchhigherthanGWMs10x.WeraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractivefromI

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