中國降水與溫度極值的時空分布規(guī)律模擬.pdf

1、蘭州大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文中國降水與溫度極值的時空分布規(guī)律模擬姓名：萬仕全申請學(xué)位級別：博士專業(yè)：大氣科學(xué)、氣象學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：丑紀(jì)范封國林20100501Abstractunderthebackgroundofglobalwarming，climateextremes，meteorologicaldisastersandrelatedsocialandeconomicallossesincreasedrapidlyAsanecessarypre

2、conditionofclimateextremesthespatialtemporalcharacteristicsofextremeeventsprovidesfundamentalscientificbasisforsevereweatherpredictionSuchlawsincludethevariabilityofextremes，theregionalcoverageofrecord—breakingprobabilit

3、yandtheperiodicoscillationinthetimescaleUndermostcircumstancethespatialtemporalclusterofextremevaluesmarkatransitiontoextremeevents，theclimaticbackgroundiscloselyrelatedtogeneralcirculationofatmosphereandmightbedominated

4、byairseacoupledsystem，egENS0Themaincontributionofairseacoupledsystemisthattheirinteractionstransporttodifferentregionsbyananisotropicway’andresultedinaphenomenonofextremes’spatialtemporaldependenceThisisstatisticalanddyn

5、amicalbasisofthetheoryofextremeeventspredictionResultsindicatethatthegeneralizedParetodistributionfGPD)modelisaneffectivetoolforthestudyofclimateextremesbasedonexistingobservationswhoseschemeofspatialparameterizationcans

6、imulatetheregionalfeaturesofextremevaluebyextenditsdefinitionfrom‘points’to‘fields’Theresultsrevealthedifierencesofspatialdistributionofextremetemperatureandprecipitationbetweenthemonsoonzoneandnonmonsoonregion，andthetem

7、poraldifferencesbetweensummerandotherseasonsoverChinaTheresponsesofthemtoairseasystemalseflectdifferentkeyareascloselyrelatingtoclimaticzones(1)Forprecipitation，variabilityofextremesiscomparativelybiggerinthemonsoonregio

8、nofsouthernChinathanthatofnorthofChina，andlargerinsummerthanthatinautumnRecord—breakingprobabilityisbiggerinthenonmonsoonandsmallerinmonsoonareaThefrequencyofRecordbreakingeventsshowsalowerfrequentinsummerthanthatinother

9、seasonsVariabilityoftheprecipitationextremesrespondingtoairseasystem化。gS0)isrelatedtomonsoontransitionregion，whoseresponsearealocatesattheiunctionbetweendryregionandwetregion，egbetweentheTibetPlateauandtheeasternareabetw

10、eentheYellowRiverandYangtzeRiverInmostpartsofChina，recordbreakingprobabilityresponsetoseaairsystemshavelargerregioninsummerandautumnthanthatofspringandwinter(2)Nomatterhighandlowthespatialcharacteristicsoftemperatureextr

11、emesvariabilityisoppositetoprecipitationegtheareaofvariabilityofextremelowtemperatureislargerinthehigh—latitude(nonmonsoonregion)thanthatinthelowlatitude(monsoonregion)Theareawithvariabilityofthelowtemperatureextremeresp

12、onsetotheoceanatmospheresystem(eg)ismuchlargerthanthatofprecipitation，andmainlYattheeastChina；ThespatialcoverageofresponseregionofextremesvariabilityofhightemperatureresponsetoNAOismuchsmallerthanthatoflowtemperature，onl

13、yaminorresponsearealocatingatthenorthofnortheastTherecord—breakingprobabilityalsoshowssimilardistribution(3)Theimpactofglobalwanningonrecordbreakingprobabilityoftemperatureextremesisinagoodaccordancewithitsvariabilitywhi

14、letheresponsepatternsofextremehighandlowisoppositeTheresponseareaofhightemperatureissmallerthanthatoflowtemperature，thelatterhavealargestrongresponseareainChinaexceptQinghai—Tibc：PlateauandNortheastChinaThecharacteristie

15、sofextremehightemperaturesisonthecontrarythekeyregionresponsetoglobalwarminglocatesonthejunctionregionbetweenmonsoonandnonmonsoonbelt，egtheareafromtheQinghaiTibetPlateaupasstheNorthtotheendofNortheastItsspatialpatternsof

16、distributionarecomplementarywiththatoflow—temperaturer4)TemperatureExtremeshowssimilarspatialdependencetoprecipitationextreme，andtakeJiangsuProvinceasanexample，thecoverageofextremesvariesinverselywithitsprobabilityandamp

17、litude(5)ProbabilityanalysisshowsthatclimateextremesarepredictableTaketemperatureasanexampletherecord—breakingtemperaturesofChinaaredifferentfromregiontegion，whoselevelsofrecordbreakingtemperatureinfuturewillriseinsomere

18、gionsanddeclineinothersMonteCarlosimulationindicatesthatrecord—breakinghightemperatureshowsunderdifferentclimateforcingscenariosForexample，underthebackgroundofcurrentwarmingprobabilitythelevelofrecordbreakinghightemperat