灰色預測模型的改進及其應用.pdf

1、西安理工大學碩士學位論文灰色預測模型的改進及其應用姓名：張軍申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：應用數(shù)學指導教師：王秋萍20080301AbstractTitle：lMPROVEMENTOFGREYFORECASTlNGMODELANDn『SAPPLICAlTIONMajorAppliedmathematicsName：JunZhangSupervisor=AssociateprofQiupingWANGAbstractSignature：Sign

2、ature：GreyforecastingmodelisallimportantpartofgreysystemtheoryalsoisawidelyusedpredictionmethodinthepredictiontheoreyandapplicationTherefore，researchongreyforecastingmodelisofgreatsignificanceAtpresent，theproblemsofgreyf

3、orecastingmodelareasfollows：theimprovedmethodiscomplex，thescopeofapplicationisconfined，andforecastingprecisionisnothighAgainsttheseproblems，onthebasisofsummarizingtheexistingoutcomeofimprovedgreyforecastingmodel，thepaper

4、studyonimprovedgreyforecastingmodelusingfunctiontransformationandinversetransformationtheorygreysystemmodelingtheoryandgeneticalgorithmtheoryParticularlytheresearchonimprovinggreymodel’Sforecastingprecisionbyincreasingth

5、esmoothdegreeofmodelingdataseriesisgivenAndviabilityofimprovedmethodsisprovedandeffectivenessofimprovedmethodsistestedbypracticalexamplesTheprimaryresearchcontentandresultsareobtainedasfollowes：1Thesmoothdegreeofmodeling

6、dataseriesisoneoftheimportantfactorsthatimpactforecastingprecisionofgreymodelThus，onthebasisoftranslationtransformationandstretchingtransformation，thepaperpresentedalinearfunctiontransformationimprovedgreyforecastingmode

7、lwithparametersandprovedthattheimprovedmethodcanincreasethesmoothdegreeofmodelingdataseriesFinallynumericalexampleisgivenandfittedeffectandforecastingprecisionofimprovedmodelisanalysised2Inthepaperonthebasisoflogarithmfu

8、nctiontransformationandlinearfunctiontransformationcanincreasethesmoothdegreeofmodelingdataseries，logarithmfunction—linearfunctiontransformationimprovedgreyforecastingmodelwithparametersandlinearfunction—logarithmfunctio

9、ntransformationimprovedgreyforecastingmodelwithparametersaregivenIthasbeenprovedthatthetwotransformationmethodsCanincreasethesmoothdegreeofmodelingdataseriesThecalculationresultsofpracticalexampleshoweffectivenessofthetw