2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
已閱讀1頁，還剩110頁未讀， 繼續(xù)免費閱讀

下載本文檔

版權(quán)說明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請進行舉報或認領(lǐng)

文檔簡介

1、NthAmericaEquityResearch01April2019LifeInsurance1Q19OutlookLTFundamentalsMixedbutImprovingResultsDepressedValuationsCreateAttractiveRiskRewardInsuranceLifeJimmyS.BhullarCFAAC(1212)6226397jimmy.s.bhullar@BloombergJPMABHUL

2、LARPabloS.Singzon(1212)6222295pablo.s.singzon@J.P.MganSecuritiesLLCSeepage109fanalystcertificationimptantdisclosures.J.P.Mgandoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatth

3、efirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Wemaintainabullishstanceonlifeinsurancestocks.Inourviewbusinessfundamen

4、talswillremainmixedbutimproveversus2018.Thiscoupledwithdownbeatinvestsentimentdepressedvaluationlevelscreatesattractiveriskreward.Onapositivenotelifeinsurershaveamplecapitalflexibility.Alsoweprojectsalesflowsinmostproduc

5、tstoimproveexpectpricinginstayrational.Converselyweexpectthesect’sROEtobarelyexceeditscostofequityremainwaryoftailriskinlegacyLTCVAbooks.?RaisingEPSestimates.WeareraisingourEPSestimatesfseveralinsurerstoreflectthestronge

6、quitymarketthusfarthisyearpartiallyoffsetbythedeclineinnewmoneyyields.Despitetheincreaseour20192020fecastsfmostcompaniesarebelowconsensus.WefeelthatstreetfecastsfAIGATHVOYAareespeciallyoptimistic.Converselyourprojections

7、fEQHPFGareaboveconsensuslevels.?Weexpectlifeinsurers’resultstoimproveversuslastyear.EarningsinequitysensitiveproductsshouldbenefitfromhigherAUMbalancesfeeincome.Alsowefecastsalesflowsinmostproductstobemodestbutimprovefro

8、m2018levels.WhilehighlylikelyinthelongrunwedonotanticipatemajLTCgeswhichhurtresultslastyearinthenearterm.Inadditionmostcompaniesshouldremainactivewithsharebuybacksdividendhikes.Onacautiousnotelownewmoneyyieldsremainahead

9、windbutweexpectthepaceofspreadcompressiontoabatethrough2019.Alsogiventhetypical1quarterlagfprivateequityfundsalternativeinvestmentincomeshouldbeweakin1Q19althoughitshouldimprovesignificantlyin2Q19.?Uptickincreditlossessu

10、stainedlowinterestrateskeyrisksfacinginsurancestocks.Afterrisingsteadilythroughmostof2018interestrateshavedeclinedrecently.Alsounlikelastyearcreditspreadsinmostassetclasseswhereinsurersinvesthavecompressed.Weestimatethat

11、newmoneyyieldsinlifeinsurers’ptfoliosped5060bpsin1Q19.Meanwhilewefeelthathealthycapitalliquiditylevelsshouldhelplifeinsurerswithstanuptickininvestmentlossesbetterthanduringthefinancialcrisisbutexpectstockstopullbackifcre

12、dittrendswsenregardless.?Investsentimentremainsdownbeatdespitehealthyperfmancein2019valuationlevelsareattractive.Lifeinsurancestocksrose11%inin1Q19.Thegroupistradingat1.1xBVex.AOCI8.6xfwardEPSdownfrom1.3x10.3xrespectivel

13、yayearago.Alsothegroup’sdiscounttooverallmarkettotheP&Csectisgreaterthanhistically.?LNCisourtoppickweremainnegativeonBHF.AlsowemaintainacautiousstanceonVOYAgivenamixedoutlookfbusinesstrendsthefirm’spoearningsqualityoverl

14、ybullishinvestsentiment.AmongourNeutralratedstockswearepositiveonUNMcautiousonAIG.LifeInsurance1Q19OutlookKeyPositives:CapitalflexibilityfbuybacksOverallsalesflowsimprovingRationalpricinginmostproductsKeyNegatives:Recent

15、declineininterestratesPoROEsTailriskinLTCVAblocks2019EstimateChanges:ReducingEPS:AELAFLFGGNWTMKUNMIncreasingEPS:AIGATHBHFEQHHIGLNCMETPFGPRURGAVOYANoChange:NoneBestTradeIdeas:Defensivelong:TMKHighbetalong:LNCSht:BHFPair:l

16、ongLNCshtBHFPleasevisitourBloombergpageonJPMABhullar3NthAmericaEquityResearch01April2019JimmyS.BhullarCFA(1212)6226397jimmy.s.bhullar@EquityRatingsPriceTargetsMktCapRatingPriceTargetCompanyTicker($mn)Price($)CurPrevCurEn

17、dDatePrevEndDateAFLACInc.AFLUS37764.3050.00Nnc52.00Dec19ncncAmericanEquityInvestmentLifeAELUS2441.7827.02Nnc34.00Dec19ncncAmericanInternationalGroupAIGUS37315.8043.06Nnc52.00Dec19ncncAtheneHoldingATHUS7956.0040.80Nnc58.0

18、0Dec19ncncAXAEquitableEQHUS10652.0520.14Nnc24.00Dec19ncncBrighthouseFinancialBHFUS4265.2536.29UWnc43.00Dec19ncncFGLHoldingsFGUS1739.747.87Nnc10.00Dec19ncncGenwthFinancialInc.GNWUS1918.063.83Nnc——ncntfdFinancialServicesHI

19、GUS18103.0549.72Nnc52.00Dec19ncncLincolnNationalLNCUS12083.9858.70OWnc92.00Dec19ncncMetLifeInc.METUS40807.6042.57OWnc57.00Dec19ncncPrincipalFinancialGroupPFGUS14028.1050.19Nnc64.00Dec19ncncPrudentialFinancialPRUUS38791.7

20、491.88OWnc128.00Dec19ncncReinsuranceGroupofAmericaRGAUS8918.39141.98Nnc151.00Dec19ncncTchmarkCpTMKUS9224.3781.95OWnc88.00Dec19ncncUnumGroupUNMUS7258.2333.83Nnc45.00Dec19ncncVoyaFinancialInc.VOYAUS7543.9649.96UWnc52.00Dec

溫馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
  • 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
  • 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
  • 5. 眾賞文庫僅提供信息存儲空間，僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護處理，對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負責(zé)。
  • 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
  • 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。

最新文檔

評論

0/150

提交評論