數(shù)據(jù)挖掘在流量經(jīng)營(yíng)中的應(yīng)用.pdf

1、數(shù)據(jù)挖掘在流量經(jīng)營(yíng)中的應(yīng)用摘要在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的新形勢(shì)下，電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商需要做出由話務(wù)量經(jīng)營(yíng)向流量經(jīng)營(yíng)的經(jīng)營(yíng)思維方式的轉(zhuǎn)變，以適應(yīng)未來(lái)流量業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展的需要，以解決運(yùn)營(yíng)商的“管道化“危機(jī)和“量收剪刀差”難題。流量經(jīng)營(yíng)的基礎(chǔ)是流量規(guī)模，但是在規(guī)模提升下卻存在著流量資源分布的嚴(yán)重失衡的問(wèn)題，比如：XX移動(dòng)2012年7月流量用戶占全用戶的比率是56％，而流量用戶中4857％是月流量在5M及以下的低流量用戶，它們只消耗了144％的流量資源。為了解決該問(wèn)題，

2、文章基于精確營(yíng)銷的思路：尋找合適的用戶，在合適的時(shí)機(jī)，向其推薦合適的產(chǎn)品。文章重點(diǎn)解決如何找到合適的用戶這個(gè)問(wèn)題。建立決策樹(shù)模型的對(duì)低流量用戶群中的潛在高流量用戶進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。建模包括明確業(yè)務(wù)目標(biāo)、變量設(shè)計(jì)、數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)備和數(shù)據(jù)理解、模型構(gòu)建和模型評(píng)估這幾步。明確要解決的業(yè)務(wù)問(wèn)題后設(shè)計(jì)出建模寬表并通過(guò)SQL實(shí)現(xiàn)它，然后根據(jù)寬表數(shù)據(jù)選擇聰明變量和探索聰明變量與目標(biāo)變量的關(guān)系，確定導(dǎo)入決策樹(shù)模型的變量。基于訓(xùn)練集數(shù)據(jù)建立決策樹(shù)模型后把該模型給測(cè)試集打

3、分，對(duì)模型效果進(jìn)行評(píng)估。通過(guò)該模型我們可以通過(guò)10％的用戶預(yù)測(cè)出45％的潛在高流量用戶。DATAMINlNGINTHEDATATRAFFICMANAGEMENTABSTRACTUnderthenewsituationofthemobileInternet，telecomoperatorsneedtomaketheshiftfromtrafficoperatorstodatatrafficmanagement，whichaccommoda

4、testheneedsoffuturedatatra伍CbusinessdevelopmentandsolvesthecrisisofthetrafficpipelineandquantitypricescissorsproblemWithdatatrafficscaleupgradingthereisaseriousimbalanceofthedatatrafficresources，forexample：the56％ofuserso

5、fXXmobileoperatorinJuly2012havethedatatraffic，nearly50％ofthemmonthlydatatrafficin5Mbelowandtheyconsumeonly144％ofTosolvetheproblem，thearticleisbasedonprecisionmarketingwhichrecommendssuitableproductstothetightusersattheti

6、ghttimeTharticlefocusessolvinghowfindth(LppropriateusersDeci“1heartlclefocusesonSOIvinghowtolindtheaPpropnateUSersDecision●trccmodelpredictsthepotentialhigh—trafficusersinthelow—trafficusersCreatingadecisiontreemodelincl

7、udescleatingthebusinessobjective，designingvariables，datapreparation，understandingdata，buildingthemodelandmodelevaluationstepsAftercleatingthebusinessproblem，wedesignthewidetableofmodelingrequiresandimplementthewide㈣0Ⅲ7㈣2