基于最大熵方法的施工導(dǎo)流風(fēng)險分析及其多目標(biāo)決策研究

1、三峽大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于最大熵方法的施工導(dǎo)流風(fēng)險分析及其多目標(biāo)決策研究姓名：李旭東申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水利水電工程指導(dǎo)教師：郭紅民20100501IIIAbstractTheoptimalionofconstrctiondivertionstardexistsinthewholeprogressofhydroelecctricpowerengineeringitisthemainfactofplanninggeneralconstr

2、ctionprogress.Theoptimalioninfluencestheprojectcosttheconstructionsafetyperiod.Anentropyprobabilitydensityfunctionmodelofoverlevelfloodintervalisderivedbytheuseofmaximumentropyprinciple.Onthisbasis，themethodfcalculatingo

3、verlevelfloodriskrateispresented.InadditionthecalculationiscarriedoutbyuseofMATLABaimingatpracticalprojectwhichiscomparedwithtraditionalmethodofassumingWeibulldistribution.Theresultsshowsthatthemethodisofhighaccuracyitis

4、simpleinarithmeticsconvenientinapplicationaswell.Thispaperanalyzeshydrologicuncertaintyhydraulicuncertaintyofthediversionproject.ThispapersbestprobabilitydistributionofpeakflowbyMonteCarlomethod.Resultsshowthatbestprobab

5、ilitydistributionofpeakflowisNmaldistributionDeltadistribution.ComputingmethodofoverallriskrateisderivedbytheuseofmaximumentropyprinciplethecalculationiscarriedoutbyuseofMATLABaimingatpracticalprojectwhichiscomparedwithJ

6、CmethodMonteCarlomethod.Theresultsshowthatthemethodisofhighaccuracyitissimpleinarithmetics.Thispaperanalysesthedecisionobjectsofoptimizingstardofconstructiondiversiondescribesthevariousmethodsofcalculatingtheweightdeterm

7、inestheweightbyqualitativequantitativemethodsestablishesdecisionmodelbasedonpatternidealrecognition.Itshowsthatthedecisionmodeliseffectivethroughexamplecalculationweightsensitiveanalysis.Keywds:constructiondiversionriska