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1、<p>  中文3185字,1915單詞,10170英文字符</p><p>  出處:Pearson M. Value chain management: an illustration using variability mapping and decision frontier analysis[J]. 2013.</p><p>  畢 業(yè) 設(shè) 計(jì)(論 文)外 文 參 考

2、 資 料 及 譯 文</p><p>  譯文題目:價(jià)值鏈管理:一個(gè)使用變異映射與決策前沿分析的案例 </p><p>  學(xué)生姓名: 學(xué)  號(hào): </p><p>  ?! I(yè): 會(huì)計(jì)學(xué) </p>

3、<p>  所在學(xué)院: 商學(xué)院 </p><p>  指導(dǎo)教師: </p><p>  職  稱: </p><p>  2013年 12 月 27 日&

4、lt;/p><p>  VALUE CHAIN MANAGEMENT: AN ILLUSTRATION USING VARIABILITY MAPPING AND DECISION FRONTIER ANALYSIS</p><p>  Michael Pearson</p><p><b>  ABSTRACT</b></p>&l

5、t;p>  We address uncertainty and confusion in value chain management through the use of recently developed phase plane and decision frontier analysis. The new methodology enables the distinction between the concept of

6、 local, self-inflicted, uncertainty and the concept of global, state of the world, uncertainty through phase plane mapping. We utilise the solution to a set of stochastic differential equations to encapsulate attitudes t

7、o uncertainty, opportunity and risk. One source of information on and</p><p>  Keywords Value Chain; Uncertainty Mapping; Risk and Opportunity; Phase Plane and Decision Frontier Analysis</p><p>

8、  1 INTRODUCTION</p><p>  Work in the Value Chain Forum has led to customer demand being defined in terms of performance, contract cost, through life cost and timeliness (McGuffog et al., 1999; McGuffog, 201

9、1) while highlighting the need to encapsulate attitudes to uncertainty such as seeing opportunity or risk. Faisal et al. (2006) map supply chains on the two dimensions of risk and challenge by using customer sensitivity

10、and risk alleviation competency derived from brain-storming exercises or other sources. Zairi et al</p><p>  2 A SIMPLE VALUE CHAIN: THE STOCHASTIC MODEL AND PROBLEM FORMULATION</p><p>  A simpl

11、e value chain is modelled by a contractor (dual operator) making an agreement with a customer (primal operator) to complete a project in a number of stages monitored within a certain agreed time scale. The customer defin

12、es the demand (D) for services and products at each stage of the project while ?the contractor determines the way in which these services are supplied (Q), including a safety margin(k??e ) to ensure customer satisfaction

13、 and successful completion on time in the risky envir</p><p>  where ??indicates the value of the variable when it is positive and zero otherwise (Pearson, 2003).</p><p>  Also?1 ?E(D),?2 ?E(Q),

14、 ???2 ??1 and ?(k), ?(k) are the normal distribution density andcumulative distribution functions, respectively, for safety factor, k. The customer and contractor agree to complete certain stages of the project perhaps w

15、ith the assistance of a Gantt chart. Probability distributions may be associated with the completion of the stages (perhaps by using PERT or other methods). The outcome may lead to certain targets not being met, which re

16、sults in a series of forecasting error</p><p>  2.1 THE MIX (OVERAGE/UNDERAGE) SOLUTION</p><p>  The mix solution tracks the way in which partners across decision frontiers synchronize their eff

17、orts to reach optimality (Pearson, 2008a). In this context the decision frontier is at the tie which exists between the customer and the contractor. The solution (Appendix 1) is described by the equation</p><p

18、>  We see that the constant in equation (3) depends on the project costs and contribution to profit (where c p ??c p1 ??c p2 ) defined in Section 1.1. The LHS of Eqn. (3) has an additional term to the classical fixed

19、variability solution which measures the rate at which error variability changes with respect to the ‘mix’ variable ??. This assists in the identification of the optimal (maximum profit) solution in conditions of increase

20、d uncertainty.</p><p>  2.2 THE GLOBAL (VOLUME) SOLUTION</p><p>  In contrast to the local (mix) variable, ??, the global variable,??, is formulated as the sum of expected demand and supply (???

21、??1 ???2 ), which assists in the monitoring of change in the global market place.</p><p>  The global (‘volume of the total expected demand and supply output’) solution is described by the equation (Appendix

22、 1):</p><p>  We see that the constant again depends on the costs and contribution to profit defined in section 1.1. The LHS has a single term which measures the rate at which the error variability changes w

23、ith respect to the ‘global’ variable, ??. This also assists in the identification of the optimal (maximum profit) solution. The two equations (3) and (4) form a dynamic system of stochastic differential equations which t

24、race the optimal solution in circumstances where variability changes and uncertainty in</p><p>  3 PHASE PLANES: AN ILLUSTRATION</p><p>  We use an example drawn from a large engineering project

25、 to illustrate the methodology. A city council (customer and primal operator) approaches a contractor (dual operator) to install a single route tram system in a city. The operators agree that the tram system will be inst

26、alled in 16 two-monthly stages (32 months in all) with monitoring taking place at each stage. Figure 1 shows the plot of quantity, forecast demand and actual demand against project stage, each stage representing two mont

27、hs i</p><p>  Information about historical plots as well as projections involving future events and plans can be incorporated into the forecast which then acts as a profile which can be adapted dynamically d

28、uring the project development stages (Pearson, 2006).</p><p>  3.1 LOCAL (MIX) PHASE PLANE</p><p>  The local phase plane maps the progress of the contractual agreement entered into by the opera

29、tors during the stages of the project. If the mutually agreed targets are exactly achieved within the risk environment then both operators will be satisfied and the target solution will be achieved (see Figure 2). If the

30、 path described by the mix plot drifts outside of the area of capability (that is, when there is higher overage or underage than planned) but still remains within the boundary set by the</p><p>  Figure 2 il

31、lustrates this during the central period of the contract (months 10 to 24). The Figure shows the three efficient frontiers (EF) associated with improvement in profit (isovalue line, Appendix 2), improvement in underage a

32、nd improvement in overage associated with the risky environment. If the mix plot moves to the wrong side any of the efficient frontiers then the path is moving into a suboptimal position with regard to that requirement m

33、apped in the uncertain environment. This leads to</p><p>  3.2 GLOBAL PHASE PLANE</p><p>  Figure 3 illustrates the progress of the project in the context of the global risk environment. After s

34、everal months the contractors discovered problems in meeting the targets agreed at the beginning. Part of the difficulty was the amount of infrastructure work which had to be carried out before laying the tram lines. Thi

35、s led to delays and increased expense. Another factor was the increased uncertainty due to a recession which meant that access to finance was restricted. The efficient frontier </p><p>  4. CONCLUSION</p&

36、gt;<p>  The methodology which makes use of variability mapping, phase planes and decision frontier analysis has already been applied in the newsvendor problem and supply chain networks (Pearson, 2003, 2006, 2007,

37、 2008a, 2008b, 2010). This new approach brings rigorous tools for measuring and monitoring coordinated project management between networked operators in both a local and global environment of uncertainty. The methods are

38、 especially applicable to value chain management where they can be employed </p><p>  ???

39、 ??? ???

40、 ??? </p><p><b>  邁克爾·皮爾遜</b></p&

41、gt;<p><b>  摘要</b></p><p>  我們解決價(jià)值鏈管理的不確定性和混亂問題,通過使用最近開發(fā)的相平面和決策前沿來分析。新方法使通過相平面映射的地方,有了不確定性和全球觀念,有了不確定性的概念之間的區(qū)別。我們利用該解決方案為一組隨機(jī)微分方程的封裝態(tài)度的不確定性,機(jī)會(huì)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析。信息和目標(biāo)的可變性來源之一是動(dòng)態(tài)采集,該方法有助于產(chǎn)生專家預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)誤差可

42、以進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè),以在變化映射的改變,為加強(qiáng)價(jià)值鏈發(fā)生機(jī)制的研究和認(rèn)識(shí)提供一個(gè)創(chuàng)新的設(shè)施。該方法還解決了需要改進(jìn)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系問題,以及支持提高敏捷性的問題。</p><p>  關(guān)鍵詞:價(jià)值鏈;不確定性映射;風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和機(jī)會(huì);相平面與決策前沿分析</p><p><b>  1.引言</b></p><p>  在價(jià)值鏈論壇的工作導(dǎo)致了客戶的需求而在性能方面

43、有了合同的成本定義,闡述了生活成本和時(shí)效性,同時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)必須封裝態(tài)度不明朗因素,如看機(jī)會(huì)或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。費(fèi)薩爾等對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和挑戰(zhàn),通過使用客戶的靈敏度和頭腦風(fēng)暴練習(xí)或其他來源以減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力兩個(gè)維度映射的供應(yīng)鏈。再利等強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)于客戶的需求建立關(guān)系的重要性,他們還強(qiáng)調(diào)需要提高靈活性??死锼雇懈ビ酶爬ǖ姆椒▉韯?chuàng)建彈性的供應(yīng)鏈,而唐的評(píng)論文章解決供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的問題。在這簡短的文章中,我們描述了監(jiān)控的方式本地化以及全球化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以及利用相平面映射,通過監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)或預(yù)

44、報(bào)誤差的進(jìn)展。該方法支持形成的價(jià)值鏈中,由于它是關(guān)系采用網(wǎng)絡(luò)方式,通過在邊緣節(jié)點(diǎn),以及通過的商譽(yù)成本在每建模階段注冊(cè)成立優(yōu)先解決客戶滿意度。該方法還使用分析以實(shí)現(xiàn)敏捷性的要求。</p><p>  2.一個(gè)簡單的價(jià)值鏈:隨機(jī)模型與問題描述</p><p>  一個(gè)簡單的價(jià)值鏈?zhǔn)怯梢砸粋€(gè)承包商(偶算)為藍(lán)本制作與客戶(原始運(yùn)算符)的協(xié)議,完成了一批具有一定協(xié)定時(shí)間內(nèi)監(jiān)測(cè)階段的項(xiàng)目。客戶定義需

45、求(D)是就服務(wù)和產(chǎn)品的項(xiàng)目,而每個(gè)階段皮爾遜承建商決定了這些服務(wù)被提供(Q),其中包括一個(gè)安全余量的方式(k?e)確保準(zhǔn)時(shí)出現(xiàn)在危險(xiǎn)的環(huán)境中結(jié)合客戶的滿意度成功完成。該合作的目標(biāo)(假設(shè)正態(tài)分布預(yù)測(cè)誤差)實(shí)現(xiàn)最大化</p><p>  其中?表示該變量的值,它是一般是正的,否則為零(皮爾遜,2003)。同時(shí)?1 ?E(D),?2 ?E(Q), ???2 ??1,并且?(k), ?(k)分別正態(tài)分布密度和累積分布函

46、數(shù),k分別為它們的安全系數(shù)。客戶和承包商同意完成該項(xiàng)目的某些階段或許與甘特圖的協(xié)助有關(guān)。概率分布可能與完成階段(或許通過使用PERT或其他方法)相關(guān)聯(lián)。結(jié)果可能導(dǎo)致無法得到滿足一定的目標(biāo),從而導(dǎo)致了一系列在項(xiàng)目的每個(gè)階段產(chǎn)生的預(yù)報(bào)誤差。?e是這些共同計(jì)算出的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差預(yù)測(cè)誤差。利潤客戶(下游運(yùn)營商)和承包商(上游運(yùn)營商)的貢獻(xiàn)是c p1和c p2 ,分別與c p ??c p1 ??c p2。對(duì)于承包商的利潤是其完成該階段的貢獻(xiàn)減去完成它的

47、合同費(fèi)用相關(guān)聯(lián)的(名義)支付。以獲利為客戶的貢獻(xiàn)計(jì)算從成功完成該階段所取得的可測(cè)量的增加滿意度方面??蛻舻某~和不足成本分別為co1 和cu1 ,而對(duì)承包商它們是co2 和cu2。一個(gè)有趣的問題并且它是如何制訂的特點(diǎn)是,客戶的(原始)盤盈與承包商的(雙)是一樣未成年的。相關(guān)的成本,但不一定是相同的。例如,客戶可以設(shè)定一個(gè)期望值,如未能按時(shí)交付,這不同于承包商。在這方面,承包商可</p><p>  2.1混合(超

48、額/不足)解決方案</p><p>  混合解決方案,跟蹤在涉及多個(gè)決策國界的合作伙伴同步他們的努力,以達(dá)到最優(yōu)(皮爾森,2008年a)的方式。在這方面,決定前沿是在客戶和承包商之間存在聯(lián)系。解決方案(附錄1)由下式描述 </p><p>  我們看到,恒等式(3)取決于項(xiàng)目成本和利潤貢獻(xiàn)(其中c p ??c p1 ??c p2)在1.1節(jié)中定義。等式的左邊刻度。(3)具有一個(gè)附加項(xiàng)的經(jīng)典

49、固定變性解決方案,其測(cè)量時(shí)的速率相對(duì)于“混合”變量?誤差變異性的變化。這有助于優(yōu)化(最大利潤)解決方案的條件下識(shí)別的不確定性增加。</p><p>  2.2全球(大規(guī)模)解決方案</p><p>  與此相反的地方(混合)的變量?,全局變量?,配制成預(yù)期的總和需求和供給(?????1 ???2),這有助于改變?cè)谌蚴袌?chǎng)的監(jiān)控。全球(預(yù)期總需求和供給的輸量)解決方案是由方程(附錄1):&l

50、t;/p><p>  我們看到,恒等式再次取決于成本和第1.1節(jié)中定義的盈利貢獻(xiàn)。 LHS中有一個(gè)單一的術(shù)語,在測(cè)量其誤差變化就在“全局”變量,?改變的速率。這也有助于優(yōu)化(最大利潤)解決方案的識(shí)別。該兩個(gè)方程(3)和(4)形成隨機(jī)微分方程的跟蹤最優(yōu)解的情況下的一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng),其中可變性的變化和不確定性的增加或減少隨著時(shí)間的推移,并與有關(guān)不同的合同和營銷策略。</p><p>  3.相位平面:

51、一個(gè)例子</p><p>  我們使用從一個(gè)大的工程項(xiàng)目來說明該方法繪制的一個(gè)例子。市議會(huì)(客戶和原始運(yùn)營商)接近承包(雙運(yùn)算符)來在一個(gè)城市安裝一個(gè)路由電車系統(tǒng)。運(yùn)營商同意,電車系統(tǒng)將被安裝在16這個(gè)位置。這個(gè)過程包括兩部分(總共32個(gè)月),監(jiān)測(cè)發(fā)生在每一個(gè)階段。圖1顯示數(shù)量的情節(jié),并根據(jù)項(xiàng)目階段的實(shí)際預(yù)測(cè)需求,每個(gè)階段代表時(shí)間為兩個(gè)月。數(shù)量沒有被指定為這些可能代表特定的材料、工時(shí)、勞動(dòng)或金融投資,這里稱為“價(jià)

52、值單位”。</p><p>  關(guān)于歷史的情節(jié)以及涉及未來事件和計(jì)劃預(yù)測(cè)的信息可以被納入預(yù)測(cè),隨后將充當(dāng)可以動(dòng)態(tài)地在項(xiàng)目開發(fā)階段(皮爾森,2006)進(jìn)行調(diào)整的配置文件。</p><p>  3.1當(dāng)?shù)兀ɑ旌希┫辔黄矫?lt;/p><p>  當(dāng)?shù)叵辔黄矫嬗成湓陧?xiàng)目的不同階段訂立經(jīng)營合同約定的進(jìn)度。如果雙方同意的目標(biāo)是在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境中精確地獲得,那么這兩個(gè)運(yùn)營商將協(xié)商一致,目

53、標(biāo)解決方案將會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)(見圖2)。如果由混合情節(jié)描述的路徑之外的漂移能力的區(qū)域(也就是,當(dāng)存在比計(jì)劃超額或不足),但仍保持在邊界由等值線設(shè)置內(nèi)(這樣,舉例來說,承建商不能以滿足該階段的時(shí)間表內(nèi)的目標(biāo)之一為目的,但仍然滿足了改善在其他領(lǐng)域盈利目標(biāo)的總體貢獻(xiàn)),那么雙方可能并不過分擔(dān)心。但是,如果路徑漂移的利潤等值線由于高度不確定性以及在故障預(yù)測(cè)中描述的邊界之外,那么有可能是必要實(shí)施處罰或重新談判合同協(xié)議。</p><p&g

54、t;  圖2中的合同中央期間(月數(shù)10到24)說明了這一點(diǎn)。該圖顯示了改善盈利( 等值線,附錄2 ) ,改進(jìn)未成年和完善與環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有關(guān)的超齡相關(guān)的三個(gè)有效前沿( EF) 。如果混合情節(jié)移動(dòng)到錯(cuò)誤的一邊的任何有效前沿的路徑,并正在進(jìn)入一個(gè)次優(yōu)的位置,對(duì)于這一要求映射置于不確定的環(huán)境。這導(dǎo)致協(xié)調(diào)的一個(gè)失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),需要調(diào)整。在我們的例子中,我們看到,該項(xiàng)目有效地工作在開始和其生命周期的結(jié)束,但在中央期間不這樣做,因?yàn)槁窂狡x為不協(xié)調(diào)的地區(qū),這

55、樣利潤空間受到損害。其中議定初步目標(biāo)利潤提高后,該區(qū)域位于利潤等值線內(nèi)。該領(lǐng)域的目標(biāo)不足(如電車軌道鋪設(shè)不足,在此階段的項(xiàng)目)和超額(如多余的電車軌道鋪設(shè)在不適當(dāng)準(zhǔn)備的地面上,或者超過約定的時(shí)間尺度)和有效前沿之外,所以該項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)展情況將不再能夠針對(duì)這些目標(biāo)。在我們的例子中,項(xiàng)目的中心相位揭示一種傾向,故障在這兩個(gè)目標(biāo)(以及目標(biāo)利潤)之中 ,以便有不穩(wěn)定動(dòng)作的鏈。但同時(shí),為了得到一個(gè)更全面的了解,我們也應(yīng)該參照全球相位平面,如圖3 。&

56、lt;/p><p>  3.2 全球化的相平面</p><p>  圖3示出該項(xiàng)目在行業(yè)進(jìn)展的全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境。會(huì)議同意在開始的目標(biāo)經(jīng)過幾個(gè)月,承包商從中發(fā)現(xiàn)問題。困難的部分是因?yàn)榛A(chǔ)性工作而不得不鋪設(shè)電車線之前要進(jìn)行測(cè)量。這導(dǎo)致了延遲和增加的費(fèi)用。另一個(gè)因素是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,這意味著融資渠道受到限制的不確定性增加。參考等式確定的有效前沿。 (4)是在全局相位平面上,由項(xiàng)目持續(xù)的生存能力決定的劃線通過的

57、路徑。其結(jié)果是,合同的條款需要重新談判和日程改變。</p><p><b>  4.結(jié)論</b></p><p>  這種被利用于變化映射、相位平面和決策前沿分析的方法已經(jīng)在報(bào)童問題和供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)(皮爾森, 2003 ,2006,2007 , 2008A , 2008B , 2010)得到了應(yīng)用。新方法帶來了一種在本地和全球不確定性環(huán)境下測(cè)量和監(jiān)測(cè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營商之間的協(xié)調(diào)項(xiàng)

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