外文翻譯---資本流入亞洲貨幣政策的作用

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy </p><p>　　出 處：International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington

2、, DC 20431, U.S.A. </p><p>　　作 者：TIMOTHY JAMES BOND </p><p><b>　　原 文：</b></p><p>　　Ca

3、pital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy</p><p>　　Abstract. Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows.Central banks used monetary policy to contain the thr

4、eat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Th

5、ailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.</p><p>　　Key words: Capital inflows, monetary policy.</p><p>　　I. Introduction</p>

6、<p>　　The magnitude of private capital inflows to developing countries increased sharply in recent years. Due to the macroeconomic pressures that these inflows generate,economists have devoted substantial attention

7、 to the issue of designing an appropriate policy response. The Asian experience with capital inflows offers some important lessons in this area. This paper reviews the capital inflow episode in Asia, and focuses in more

8、detail on the experience of two countries: Indonesia and Thailand. Monet</p><p>　　The Asian experience with capital inflows can provide valuable lessons to policymakers in other countries, for several reason

9、s. First, capital inflows began earlier in Asia, and have endured longer. In Thailand, for example, the capital inflow episode has lasted nearly a decade. Inflows to Asia showed little tendency to slow after the 1994 cri

10、sis in Mexico, in contrast to the pattern of capital flows to many Latin American countries. This experience offers valuable evidence to countries in which</p><p>　　The Asian experience demonstrates an addit

11、ional, extremely important point: that in countries with pegged exchange rates, an increase in capital flows complicates monetary management. Although over a longer horizon, policymakers were concerned with the potential

12、 effects of inflows on final targets such as economic activity and inflation, on a day-to-day level, they attempted to manage the economy by controlling intermediate targets such as interest rates or monetary aggregates.

13、 Many countries ex</p><p>　　This fact illustrates an important link between monetary policy and capital flows under pegged exchange rates, familiar from standard texts on open economy macroeconomics. Capital

14、 flows constrain monetary policy because monetary policy draws capital flows. In particular, an attempt either to contract monetary policy, or to sterilize a reserve inflow, will raise interest rates and attract more cap

15、ital inflows.2 The paper relies on a simple model to illustrate this relationship.The model, develope</p><p>　　The paper uses the cases of Indonesia and Thailand to demonstrate the importance of these links

16、in practice. There are important similarities between these two countries’ experiences with capital inflows. Each country, after undergoing a period of structural adjustment and economic liberalization in the mid-1980s,

17、received a surge in capital inflows around the turn of the decade. Each country maintained a fairly open capital account and an exchange rate target,3 and thus had a limited number of </p><p>　　The discussio

18、n in this paper is limited to the Asian experience with large capital inflows through the end of 1995, and the usefulness of macroeconomic policy tools in this environment. Consequently, the regional slowdown in 1996, an

19、d the financial crisis which erupted in 1997, are not covered here.</p><p>　　The paper is organized in the following way. The next section defines some terminology used throughout the paper. Section III disc

20、usses the overall Asian experience with capital inflows, and reviews the main results and policy conclusions of the literature on the subject. Section IV reviews a simple model which clarifies the relationship between mo

21、netary policy and capital flows. To illustrate the points the model makes, Section V discusses the Indonesian experience with capital inflows, while S</p><p>　　II. Definitions</p><p>　　Some disc

22、ussion of the terminology used here is in order, given the recent changes in balance of payments accounting methodology.4 As in previous literature on the subject, the term “capital inflow” in this paper refers to a decr

23、ease in the net national asset position of the private and public sectors (excluding the central bank) over a certain period of time. Thus, increases in external debt or net sales of equity will be recorded as capital in

24、flows. In practice, capital inflows are measured by</p><p>　　Using this definition, the familiar balance of payments accounting identity implies that capital inflows equal the current account deficit plus th

25、e increase in official international reserves.6 Higher capital inflows correspond to higher current account deficits, increases in reserves, or both. The exchange rate regime determines the extent to which capital inflow

26、s will increase reserves. Under a purely floating exchange rate, in which the central bank does not intervene in the foreign exchange </p><p>　　III. An Overview of the Asian Experience</p><p>　　

27、The features and macroeconomic effects of capital inflows to Asia have been discussed in the literature in some detail;7 consequently, this section presents only a brief overview of these issues as a backdrop for the ana

28、lysis to follow. Figure 1 shows the average balance on the financial account (plus errors and omissions) for five Asian countries. These countries – Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand – account for

29、 about two-thirds of total capital flows to developing Asia </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　資本流入亞洲：貨幣政策的作用</p><p>　　摘要：伴隨著資本流入的亞洲經(jīng)驗(yàn)中貨幣政策扮演了一個(gè)重要的角色。央行采用貨幣政策來(lái)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱的威脅，但導(dǎo)

30、致了利率的上升和吸引了額外資本德流入。從過(guò)去的這些實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，近幾年來(lái)從緊的貨幣政策是資本流入印度尼西亞和泰國(guó)的重要根源，而且貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性在流入期間效果下降了。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：資本流入；貨幣政策</p><p><b>　　1、簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　在最近幾年私人資本流向發(fā)展中國(guó)家流入的規(guī)模急劇增加。這些流入的資

31、本對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了壓力，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們?yōu)榻鉀Q這一問(wèn)題投入了大量的精力去設(shè)計(jì)一個(gè)適當(dāng)?shù)恼呋貞?yīng)。資本流入亞洲的經(jīng)歷為我們提供了一些在這一領(lǐng)域的許多重要的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。本文回顧了資本流入亞洲的一些片段，并著重詳細(xì)的介紹了兩個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)：印度尼西亞和泰國(guó)。貨幣政策在這些國(guó)家扮演著一種關(guān)鍵角色，既作為應(yīng)對(duì)資本流入的一種回應(yīng)，又當(dāng)貨幣總量擴(kuò)張時(shí)用來(lái)限制的一種習(xí)慣性手段，并作為當(dāng)柜臺(tái)利率提高時(shí)候能吸引了更多過(guò)熱的資金流入的一種手段。基于這個(gè)原因，所以貨幣政

32、策的重要性已列在了文獻(xiàn)中，本文分析了貨幣政策和資本流動(dòng)在一些細(xì)節(jié)上的關(guān)系。它的結(jié)論是，資本流入亞洲的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，資本帳戶開(kāi)放條件下對(duì)匯率的沖擊使保持貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性變得更加困難。在這些條件下，伴隨著資本的流動(dòng)性的上升貨幣政策的效用將下降，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理將變得更加困難。因此，各國(guó)應(yīng)制定應(yīng)對(duì)資本流入的其他手段，如財(cái)政政策，或增加匯率浮動(dòng)的靈活性。</p><p>　　資本流入亞洲的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以向其他國(guó)家的決策者提供寶貴的經(jīng)驗(yàn)

33、教訓(xùn)，有以下幾個(gè)原因。第一，在亞洲資本流入開(kāi)始較早且已經(jīng)忍受了很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。以泰國(guó)為例，資本流入已持續(xù)了近十年。資本流入亞洲的趨勢(shì)在1994年的墨西哥金融危機(jī)，之后已經(jīng)放緩，與亞洲相比資本流入拉美國(guó)家的形式卻變得多樣化。這方面的教訓(xùn)向資本最近才開(kāi)始流入的國(guó)家提供了有價(jià)值的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。第二，資本流入亞洲國(guó)家一直比較強(qiáng)勁，自1988年以來(lái)的近10年泰國(guó)經(jīng)歷了平均每年資本流入量占了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值近百分之十，這個(gè)原因使資本流入的影響程度往往更容易顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)

34、。第三，面對(duì)強(qiáng)大的資本流入，許多國(guó)家認(rèn)為可以使用老式的強(qiáng)有力的政策反應(yīng)。他們采取財(cái)政緊縮政策等傳統(tǒng)的政策，以及非傳統(tǒng)的政策，如貨幣管理的手段創(chuàng)新，采取措施限制信貸增長(zhǎng)，和采取措施提高短期資本流動(dòng)的成本。第四，可能是由于強(qiáng)烈的政策反應(yīng)的結(jié)果，亞洲國(guó)家預(yù)防著一些大規(guī)模資本流入帶來(lái)的一些問(wèn)題。特別指出，資本流入了雖然對(duì)通貨膨脹和實(shí)際匯率的影響有限，但最重要的是，資金的流入使投資激增，而不是消費(fèi)。而資本流入的效果并非完全是良性的，但是，由于很多

35、這些國(guó)家現(xiàn)在面臨更高層次的對(duì)外債務(wù)，以及擔(dān)憂國(guó)內(nèi)通過(guò)金融體系為中介</p><p>　　亞洲的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明了一個(gè)極為重要的觀點(diǎn)：在實(shí)行固定匯率制度的國(guó)家，資本流入的增加會(huì)使貨幣管理復(fù)雜化。雖然從更長(zhǎng)的眼光看，政策制定者關(guān)注的是潛在的對(duì)最終目標(biāo)的影響程度，如從某一天到另一天的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和通貨膨脹的水平，他們嘗試通過(guò)控制諸如利率或資本流入總量對(duì)貨幣政策影響的壓力增加的對(duì)象的管理，以及貨幣資本流入的步伐總量的壓力增大，政策制

36、定者常常覺(jué)得自己控制這些關(guān)鍵變量的能力已經(jīng)下降。通過(guò)這種方式，資金流動(dòng)已使中央銀行的任務(wù)很復(fù)雜了。</p><p>　　這一事實(shí)說(shuō)明了貨幣政策與固定匯率制度下流動(dòng)資本之間的重要聯(lián)系，類似于在開(kāi)放型宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)闡述那樣。資本流動(dòng)強(qiáng)迫貨幣政策，因?yàn)樨泿耪唑?qū)使著資本流動(dòng)。特別是，一種嘗試去控制貨幣政策或限制資本流入，都將引起利率上升和吸引更多的資本流入。本文依賴于一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的模型來(lái)說(shuō)明這種關(guān)系。該模型由20年前的

37、科里和波特（1974）共同發(fā)明，用提供的有用信息去洞察資本流動(dòng)的根源與匯率掛鉤的國(guó)家的匯率制度之間的關(guān)系。它可以量化我們的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，包括貨幣管理管理者可以用它來(lái)測(cè)算國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的速度，以及由于資本流入使用緊縮性的貨幣政策的程度。</p><p>　　本文利用印度尼西亞和泰國(guó)的例子來(lái)說(shuō)明實(shí)踐中兩者的的重要性。這兩者之間的相似之處就是資本流入帶來(lái)的他們國(guó)家的應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。每個(gè)國(guó)家，經(jīng)過(guò)一段時(shí)間結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和80年代中期的經(jīng)濟(jì)自由

38、化，收到了一個(gè)在十年間資本不停流入的結(jié)果每個(gè)國(guó)家維護(hù)著一個(gè)適度開(kāi)放的資本帳戶和匯率目標(biāo)，從而在有限的政策工具中選擇來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)在資本的大量流入。盡管在不同政權(quán)下的匯率制度不盡相同，但每個(gè)國(guó)家都以收緊貨幣政策來(lái)限制資本流動(dòng)的影響，并定期對(duì)儲(chǔ)備中的額外的資本流入的重要來(lái)源進(jìn)行消除。最后，每個(gè)國(guó)家得出結(jié)論，一個(gè)單獨(dú)的貨幣反應(yīng)不夠，還依賴于其他政策來(lái)保持對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制?？傊@兩個(gè)國(guó)家中泰國(guó)是以收緊財(cái)政政策為應(yīng)對(duì)，而印尼逐漸增加匯率的靈活性,即以標(biāo)

39、準(zhǔn)的政策處方來(lái)對(duì)增加的資本流入進(jìn)行回應(yīng)。印度尼西亞和泰國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)為我們提供一個(gè)資本流入怎樣有效應(yīng)對(duì)的范例，以及最重要的政策工具具有的局限性進(jìn)行了說(shuō)明。</p><p>　　在本文的討論僅限于對(duì)1995年底流入亞洲的大規(guī)模資本帶來(lái)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，和在這種環(huán)境中的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策工具的效用。因此，在1996年區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，以及在1997年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的事在這里我們沒(méi)有涉及。</p><p>　　本文的組織

40、方式如下。接下來(lái)的部分定義了一些在整個(gè)文章中使用的術(shù)語(yǔ)。第三節(jié)討論了整個(gè)亞洲應(yīng)對(duì)資本流入的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，并回顧了關(guān)于這個(gè)課題的文獻(xiàn)中的主要成果和政策結(jié)論。第四節(jié)講述一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的模型，以闡明貨幣政策和資本流動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系。為了說(shuō)明這個(gè)模型的制作。第五節(jié)討論了印度尼西亞應(yīng)對(duì)資本流入的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，而第六節(jié)討論了泰國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。第七節(jié)提供在貨幣管理手段中對(duì)資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模的數(shù)量估計(jì)方法，和貨幣政策對(duì)資本流入印尼與泰國(guó)的貢獻(xiàn)。第八節(jié)總結(jié)，并得出結(jié)論。</p>

41、<p><b>　　二、定義</b></p><p>　　這里使用過(guò)往常用的一些專業(yè)術(shù)語(yǔ)，給出一些最近改變支付賬戶的方法運(yùn)用在平衡中。正如在以前關(guān)于這一問(wèn)題的文獻(xiàn)中，“資本流入“在本文是指一個(gè)國(guó)家在一段時(shí)間里私營(yíng)和公共部門(mén)（不包括中央銀行）的資產(chǎn)狀況凈減少額。因此，外債增加或凈銷售額的權(quán)益增加將被記錄為資本流入。在實(shí)踐中，資本流入的測(cè)量是通過(guò)盈余的金融賬戶在新的國(guó)際收支平衡表中顯

42、示，加錯(cuò)誤和遺漏。金融帳戶等于外國(guó)直接投資以及證券投資（債務(wù)和股本證券）和其他投資的凈流量的總和，其中銀行流動(dòng)是一個(gè)重要因素。錯(cuò)誤與遺漏是剩余的類別，以確保國(guó)際收支平衡總和為零，這是包括在資本流動(dòng)的單位的假設(shè)下，這種移動(dòng)類別可能更能代表國(guó)際未記錄資產(chǎn)交易的匯報(bào)，而不是測(cè)量不準(zhǔn)的官方儲(chǔ)備交易或經(jīng)常賬戶上的項(xiàng)目。</p><p>　　使用這個(gè)定義，熟悉國(guó)際收支會(huì)計(jì)等式的平衡意味著大量資金的流入等于經(jīng)常賬戶的赤字加上增

43、加官方國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備。更高的資本流入對(duì)應(yīng)更高的賬戶赤字，儲(chǔ)備的增加，或兩者兼而有之。匯率制度的確定在某種程度上確定了資本流入將會(huì)增加儲(chǔ)備。在一個(gè)純粹的浮動(dòng)匯率制度下，而中央銀行不干預(yù)外國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)，資本流入將不會(huì)與儲(chǔ)備增加聯(lián)系在一起。相反，在固定匯率，央行將介入不斷升值的貨幣和資本流入將一般與外匯儲(chǔ)備的增加聯(lián)系在一起。這種關(guān)系將是在下面重點(diǎn)分析。</p><p><b>　　三、亞洲的經(jīng)驗(yàn)概述</b>

44、;</p><p>　　這個(gè)特點(diǎn)和資本流入亞洲對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響一起在一些文章的細(xì)節(jié)處進(jìn)行了討論，因此，本章只進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的概述，如對(duì)背景的進(jìn)行分析如下。圖1顯示了五個(gè)亞洲國(guó)家的金融賬戶（加上錯(cuò)誤和遺漏）的平均余額。這些國(guó)家是印度尼西亞，韓國(guó)，馬來(lái)西亞，菲律賓和泰國(guó) ，在1990-95亞洲約占三分之二的總資本額的三分之二流向發(fā)展中國(guó)家，這也將是本節(jié)的重點(diǎn)，圖中數(shù)據(jù)的平均資本也流向拉美四國(guó)：阿根廷，巴西，智利和墨西哥。&