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1、出處：BusinessReview作者：者：TheodeM.Crone原文：APatternofRegionalDifferencesintheEffectsofMoaryPolicyⅠ.IntroductionAlthoughthereisonlyonenationalmoarypolicythatdoesnotmeanthatmoarypolicydoesnotaffectsomeregionsoithe“countrymethan

2、others.Weknowthatbusinesscyclesdifferacrossstatesregionsanumberofstudieshaveexaminedhowmoarypolicymayaffectregionsdifferentlywhy.Areviewofthesestudiesrevealsthatcertainpartsofthecountryareconsistentlymeaffectedbymoarypol

3、icythanothers.Identifyingthereasonsfregionaldifferencesintheeffectsofmoarypolicymayhelpusbetterundersthowchangesinmoarypolicyripplethroughtheeconomy.InthisarticleTedCronereviewswheretheresearchhasbroughtussofar.FederalRe

4、serveofficialsaresometimesaskedhowmoarypolicycanhelpsolveregionaleconomicproblems.ThestardanswerisstraightfwardThereisonlyonenationalmoarypolicyitisnodesignedtoaddresspurelyregionalissues.Thisdoesnotmeanhoweverthatmoaryp

5、olicydoesnotaffectsomeregionsofthecountrymethanothers.Businesspeoplecivicleadersgovernmentofficialsmaywanttoknowhowmuchtheirregionwillbeaffectedbychangesinmoarypolicyrelativetotherestofthecountry.Weknowthatbusinesscycles

6、differacrossstatesregionsoverthepastdecadeanumberofstudieshaveexaminedwhatrolemoarypolicymayplay—i.ehowmoarypolicymayaffectregionsdifferentlywhy.Areviewofthesestudiesrevealsthatcertainpartsofthecountryareconsistentlymeaf

7、fectedbymonetarypolicythanothers.Sofartheonlyconvincingexplanationfthesedifferencesisthedifferentmixofindusttiesintheregions.Butthesearchfotherreasonsislikelytocontinue.consistentlymeaffectedbymoarypolicythanothers.Sofar

8、theonlyconvincingexplanationfthesedifferencesisthedifferentmixofindustriescrelationofindustryemploymentbystateacrossbusinesscycles.Thusfanindustrywithacohesionindexofonequarterlyincreasesdecreasesinemploymentduetothebusi

9、nesscyclewouldbeproptionalacrossallthestates.Thecohesionmeasuresinthestudyrangefrom0.82fmanufacturingto0.44fmining.Thusbusinesscyclesfthemajindustriesdifferacrosstbestates.Thecomovementofincomeemploymentamongmultistatere

10、gionsisstrongerthanthecomovementamongthestateshutagainitisnotperfect.Ineffectgroupingstatestogethersmoothsoutsomeoftheindividualfeaturesofbusinesscyclesbutitdoesnoteliminatethem.Sincehusinesscyclesdifferacrossstatesacros

11、sregionsintbeU.S.itisnaturaltoaskwhetherdifferentialeffectsofmoarypolicyareafact.Answeringthisquestionrequiresaconsistentframewktomeasuretheeffectofmoarypolicyontheeconomiesofstatesregions.Ⅲ.ESTIMATINGTHEREGIONALEFFECTSO

12、FMOARYPOLICYInrecentyearseconomistshaveturnedtoeconometricmodelsknownasvectautegression(VAR)modelstomeasuretbeeffectsofchangesinmoarypolicyonstatesregions.AVARisasystemofequationsfestimatingthehisticalrelationshipbetween

13、avariablesucbaspersonalincomeinaregionhypastvaluesofthatvariablebycurrentpastvaluesofothervariablessuchastheshtterminterestratetargetedbytheFederalReserve(thefedfundsrate).Usingthistypeofmodelwecanestimatetheeffectofanun

14、anticipatedchangeinthefedfundsrateonincomeinastateregion.Theseeffectsareknownasimpulseresponses.Ofcoursetheestimateswilldifferdependingonwhatvariablesareincludedintbemodelwhatassumptionsaremade.Fexampledochangesinmoarypo

15、licyaffectincomeinthecurrentperiodonlyinlaterperiodsdoshockstooneregionseconomyspilloverdirectlytotheeconomiesofotherregionsTherecentstudiesdiffersomewhatintbeirassumptions.Butallofthestudiesincludeintbeirmodelsthreekeyv

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