石油石化行業(yè)2019年度策略資源稀缺保供為先，油氣改革誕生機遇

1、正文目錄1石油石化行業(yè)回顧.................................................................................................41.12018年前三季度石油石化行業(yè)利潤大增，Q3后有所回落........................41.2年初至今石油石化指數(shù)下跌15.63%，表現(xiàn)相對較強..........................

2、......41.3石油石化行業(yè)市盈率、市凈率仍處歷史低位.............................................41.4原油價格下跌，多產(chǎn)品價格隨油價而動....................................................51.5石油石化行業(yè)2018年前三季度盈利環(huán)比繼續(xù)增長....................................61.6資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率加

3、速上漲，ROE、ROA持續(xù)提升...........................................722019年度石油石化行業(yè)市場展望...........................................................................92.1油價中樞支撐，震蕩后將迎來價格回歸................................................

4、....92.2市場化改革帶來天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價值再分配...............................................112.3煉化一體化、PTA、滌綸長絲盈利能力有所回落.....................................1532019年度投資策略......................................................................

5、........................183.1油氣資源仍具稀缺性，市場化改革帶給天然氣機遇.................................183.2采掘、石化、化工工程建設(shè)回暖，保供與“走出去”雙輪驅(qū)動...................194重點推薦標(biāo)的............................................................................

6、...........................19中國石油股份（0857.HK601857.SH）...............................................................19新奧股份（600803.SH）.....................................................................................20

7、中油工程（600339.SH）.....................................................................................20藍(lán)焰控股（000968.SH）.....................................................................................21中曼石油（603619.SH）.

8、....................................................................................21東華科技（002140.SZ）.....................................................................................22恒逸石化（000703.SZ）.................

9、....................................................................225風(fēng)險提示..............................................................................................................23圖表目錄圖表1：年初至今（截至2018年11月16日）中信各子行業(yè)

10、漲跌幅（%）...............4圖表2：國際原油價格（美元桶）走勢...................................................................5圖表3：汽柴油價格（元噸）.................................................................................5圖表4：乙烯丙烯價格（元噸）....

11、.........................................................................5圖表5：PX、PTA價格（元噸）............................................................................6圖表6：碳四、丁酮價格（元噸）......................................

12、....................................6圖表7：乙烯石腦油價差（美元噸）......................................................................6圖表8：滌綸長絲價差（元噸）.............................................................................6圖表9：

13、近年石油石化行業(yè)利潤表（百萬元）.........................................................6圖表10：近年Q3單季度石油石化行業(yè)利潤表（百萬元）.......................................7圖表11：近年石油石化行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率情況（%）.................................................8圖表12：石化

14、行業(yè)單季度ROA和ROE情況（%）.................................................8圖表13：細(xì)分板塊單季度ROE情況（%）.............................................................8圖表14：全球GDP增長情況及預(yù)測（%）...................................................

15、..........9圖表15：分部門原油需求增長（百萬桶日）..........................................................9圖表16：國際油價（美元桶）與庫存（百萬桶）.................................................10圖表18：美國原油產(chǎn)量（千桶月）.........................................

16、.............................10圖表19：美國油井、氣井、混合井?dāng)?shù)（口）.........................................................10圖表20：一次能源占比展望..................................................................................11圖表21：天然氣與可再生能

17、源增量巨大................................................................11圖表22：全球天然氣價格（美元百萬英熱）處于歷史底部...................................12圖表23：天然氣價值鏈...........................................................................

18、..............12圖表24：LNG進(jìn)口均價（美元噸）.....................................................................13圖表25：產(chǎn)、進(jìn)、消及對外依存度（億方、%）...................................................13圖表26：2014年以來天然氣重要政策文件....................

19、.......................................13圖表27：石油石化行業(yè)部分產(chǎn)品開工率情況（%）...............................................15圖表28：成品油最高零售價原油價差（元噸）....................................................16圖表29：成品油市場價原油價差（元噸）.............

20、..............................................16圖表30：國內(nèi)成品油出口維持增長（萬噸，%）...................................................16圖表31：新加坡裂解價差（美元桶）...................................................................16圖表32：汽油國內(nèi)、出

21、口以及海外價格（美元桶）..............................................17圖表33：柴油國內(nèi)、出口以及海外價格（美元桶）..............................................17圖表34：近年滌綸長絲原料價差走勢（元噸）....................................................17圖表35：紡服零售及出口累計

22、同比數(shù)據(jù)（%）......................................................18圖表36：滌綸長絲產(chǎn)能增速再次加快（萬噸，%）...............................................18圖表37：推薦標(biāo)的參數(shù)一覽........................................................................