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1、1750MassachusettsAvenueNW|WashingtonDC200361903USA|202.328.9000Tel|202.328.5432Fax|POLICYBRIEF1726TheCasefanAmericanProductivityRevivalLeeBranstetterDanielSichelJune2017LeeBranstetterisaprofessofeconomicspublicpolicyatCa
2、rnegieMellonUniversityanonresidentsenifellowatthePetersonInstitutefInternationalEconomics.DanielSichelisaprofessofeconomicsatWellesleyCollege.TheythankDavidByrneRobertGdonRobinMcKnightStephenOlinerRobertSolowSteveWeisman
3、thesenifellowsofthePetersonInstitutefhelpfulcomments.SichelreceivedmaterialfinancialsupptoverthepastyearfrelatedproductivitypricemeasurementresearchfromtheFederalReserveBankofBostonwherehewasavisitingscholaraswellasfromt
4、heBureauofEconomicAnalysistheNationalTelecommunicationsInfmationAdministration.?PetersonInstitutefInternationalEconomics.Allrightsreserved.LabproductivityperfmanceintheUnitedStateshasbeendismalfmethanadecade.Butproductiv
5、ityslowdowns—evenlengthyones—arenothingnewinUSeconomichisty.ThisPolicyBriefmakesthecasethatthecurrentslowdownwillcometoanendasanewproductivityrevivaltakeshold.WhytheoptimismOfficialpriceindexesindicatethatinnovationinthe
6、technologysecthasslowedtoacrawlbutbetterdataindicaterapidprogress.Stardmeasuresfocusedonphysicalcapitalsuggestthatbusinessinvestmentisweakbutbroadermeasuresofinvestmentthatincporateintellectualganizationalcapitalreptmuch
7、merobustinvestment.Newtechnologicalopptunitiesinhealthcareroboticseducationthetechnologyofinventionitselfprovideadditionalreasonsfoptimism.ThisPolicyBriefgaugesthepotentialproductivityimpactofthesedevelopments.Theevidenc
8、epointstoalikelyrevivalofUSlabproductivitygrowthfromthe0.5percentaveragerateregisteredsince2010toapaceof2percentme.Aproductivityrevivalofthismagnitudewouldprovideasolidfoundationfsteadyincreasesinwagesimplythatthelongrun
9、growthrateofrealGDPcouldexceed2.5percentasignificantpickupfromcurrentrates.1Thisoutcomeismelikelyinthecontextofasupptivepolicyenvironment.Tofostersuchanenvironmentthefederalgovernmentshouldexpitssupptfbasicscientificrese
10、archallowmeimmigrationbyhighlyskilledscientistsengineersentrepreneurspreserveAmerica’slongstingcommitmenttoopentradeinvestmentpolicies.Itshouldalsostrengthenthesafetyratherthanparebacksupptfwkersdisplacedbytheinnovations
11、thatwilldrivefutureproductivitygrowth.Additionalpolicyinterventions(describedinthisPolicyBrief)arerequiredtotakefulladvantageofneweducationaltechnologies.IftheyavoidpolicyerrsPresidentTrumphissuccesscouldhavethegoodftune
12、ofpresidingoveraproductivityrevival.HISTICALUPSDOWNSOFPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHRecentweakperfmanceofproductivityhaspersuadedmanyobserversthattheeconomyfacesableak“newnmal.”2AccdingtoRobertGdon(aleadingproductivityexpertprofesso
13、feconomicsatNthwesternUniversity)theimpactoftoday’sdigitalinnovationscannotcomparewiththefundamentaltechnologicaldevelopments(suchaselectrificationmotization)thatboostedUSgrowthraisedlivingstardsbetween18701970.3Inhis201
14、6bookTheRiseFallofAmericanGrowth:TheUSStardofLivingsincetheCivilWarGdoncontends1.AlthoughconsiderablymeoptimisticthanthecurrentconsensusviewofproductivityprospectstherevivaldescribedinthisPolicyBrieffallswellshtofPreside
15、ntTrump’sstatedgoalof3.5–4percentrealannualGDPgrowthwhichmosteconomistsconsiderunrealistic(seeDanielE.Sichel“CantheUSEconomySustain3to4PercentEconomicGrowth”EconofactJanuary252017:econofact.gcantheuseconomysustain3%C2%BD
16、to4percenteconomicgrowth).2.Someobserversclaimthatthecurrentproductivityslowdownisamereartifactofmeasurementerr(becausetheeconomygrowsinwaysthattraditionalstatisticsfailtocapture).Theevidencehoweverstronglysupptstheviewt
17、hatlabproductivitygrowthhasslowedsharply(seeSyverson2016ByrneFernaldReinsdf2016).3.InadditiontoGdon(2016)seeFernald(2014)FernaldWang(2015).3PB1726June2017Indeedeconomistsswungtoofarintheoptimisticdirection:By2001theCongr
18、essionalBudgetOfficewasprojectingpotentiallabproductivitygrowthinthenonfarmbusinesssectof2.7percentayearfthefeseeablefuture.Bythe2010slabproductivitygrowthhadpedtolessthanonefifththatlevel.Thishisticalreviewsuggeststhatt
19、heproductivitygrowthoftherecentpastcanbeaverypoguidetofutureperfmancethatpoperfmanceoftengeneratesexcessivelypessimisticfecasts.WHYTHEPESSIMISTSMAYBEWRONGPessimistsoftenclaimthatthepaceofinnovationhasslowedthatbusinesses
20、arenotinvestingaggressivelyconcludingthatprospectsfproductivitygrowthremainbleak.Fseveralreasonstheirpessimismmaybemisplaced.OfficialDataSignificantlyUnderestimatetheRateofInnovationinInfmationTechnologyAdvancesininfmati
21、ontechnology(IT)drovethemostrecentproductivitysurgewhichtookoffinthe1990s.DuringthesecondhalfofthedecadesemiconductproducersimproveddesignsmanufacturingprocessescausingITpricestofallrapidly.Hasthatengineofprogressgroundt
22、oahaltRobertGdonmanyothereconomistshavenotedthatthepricesofhightechequipmenthavefallenatamuchslowerpaceinrecentyearsthaninearlierdecades.Indeedofficialpublishedmeasuresofpricesfmanyhightechproductsarebarelyfallingatall.G
23、donothersfocusonpricesbecauseeconomistsoftenusetrendsinrelativepricesinasecttoinferratesofinnovation.8Howeveragrowingbodyofliteraturesuggeststhatsignificantbiasesexistintheseofficialpricemeasures.ByrneOlinerSichel(fthcom
24、ing)developeda8.Mefmallythelinkbetweenpricesmultifactproductivityreliesonthe“dual”representationofaproductionfunction.SeeOlinerSichel(2002)ByrneOlinerSichel(20132017)fapplicationsofthisapproach.FacautionarynoteseeAizcbeO
25、linerSichel(2008).newindexfmicroprocesssusedindesktoppersonalcomputers.Theirpreferredindexfellatanaveragerateof42percentayearbetween20092013whilethemostcomparableofficialpricemeasure(theproducerpriceindexfmicroprocessuni
26、ts[MPUs])declinesbyanaveragerateofonly6percentayear.Thismeasurementgaparoseinthe2000sbecauseofamajchangeinthelifecyclepatternofIntel’spostedpricesfMPUs.Befethe2000sthepostedpricesofMPUstendedtofallasnewermodelswereintrod
27、uced.Thispricetrajectyallowedastardmethodologyusedfsemiconductsintheproducerpriceindex(matchedmodelindexes)tocapturequalitychangethroughtherapidpricedeclinesofoldermodels.Sincethe2000spostedpricesofIntelMPUshavetendedtor
28、emainstableevenaftertheintroductionofnewermepowerfulmodels.Reflectingtheserelativelyflatpriceprofilesamatchedmodelindexwillindicatelittlechangeinqualityadjustedpricesevenifthequalityofeachnewlyintroducedmodelismuchgreate
29、rthanitspredecess.ThenewpricemeasureByrneOlinerSicheldeveloped(anhedonicindex)mefullycapturesongoingqualitychangerevealsrapidpricedeclinesafterthisqualitychangeistakenintoaccount.Thisevidenceonfasterpricedeclinesindicate
30、sthatinnovationmultifactproductivitygrowthinsemiconducts—thegeneralpurposetechnologybehindmuchofthedigitalrevolution—hasbeenfarmerapidthanofficialindexessuggest.ByrneCrado(2016)documentrapidpricedeclinesfarangeofotherhig
31、htechproductspointingtoongoingbrisktechnicaladvancesinawiderangeofhightechsects.ThisevidencesuggeststhattheITrevolutionisstillgoingstrong.StardMeasuresUnderestimatetheStrengthofBusinessInvestmentTheshareoftheprivatesect’
32、straditionaltangibleinvestmentinGDPhasrecoveredinrecentyearsbutitremainsbelowitspeakinthe2000swellbelowitsvaluein2000(figure2).Fproductivitypessimiststhispersistentweaknessininvestmentreflectsthedispiritingviewthattherei
33、slittlenewexcitingproductivityenhancingtechnologyinwhichfirmscaninvest.Measuresofinvestmentinphysicalcapitaltellonlypartofthestyhowever.Inrecentyearsbusinesseshaveinvestedaggressivelyinintangiblecapital(aconceptthatinclu
34、desintellectualpropertybutisbroaderthanconventionaldefinitionsofintellectualproperty).TheUSGDPaccountsonlypartiallycapturethisinvestment.CradoHultenSichel(2009)arguefabroaderapproach.Theydefinebusinessinvestmentas“anyuse
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