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1、MaintainingAmerica’sCoerciveEconomicStrengthFiveTrendstoWatchinU.S.Sanctions:AReptfromMembersoftheCNASTaskFceontheFutureofU.S.SanctionsHowardBermanPaulaDobriansky(CoChair)SueEckertKimberlyAnnElliotDavidGoldwynPeterHarrel

2、l(PrincipalCoAuth)TheodeKassingerGegeLopezRidNephewStephenRademakerFrederickReynoldsElizabethRosenberg(PrincipalCoAuth)DaleepSinghJulianneSmithAdamSzubin(CoChair)JuanZarateRachelZiembaMARCH2019@CNASDC1IntroductionU.S.fei

3、gnpolicyofficialshaveembracedeconomicsanctionsasatoolofchoicefAmericanfeignpolicy.DecisionmakershavedeployedsanctionsagainststrategicadversariesnationalsecuritythreatsrangingfromRussiatononstateactssuchasterristgroupsdru

4、gcartelsbusinesspeoplewhoengageincruptactivities.TheappealtobothpolicyleaderskeyconstituentgroupsofthepotenteconomicimpactsofsanctionsinseveralrecenthighprofilecasesparticularlythoseofIranRussiaNthKeaVenezuelacombinedwit

5、hbroadbipartisansupptfaggressiveuseofU.S.sanctionssuggeststhattheUnitedStateswillfavthispolicytoolbeanactivepractitionerintheyearsahead.ThisbriefdescribesfiveofthemostprominentinfluentialtrendsthatcouldaffectU.S.sanction

6、sothercoerciveeconomicmeasuresinthefuture.Thefivetrendsare:(1)ashifttowardmeaggressiveuseofU.S.unilateralsanctions(2)thegrowingroleofCongressinenactingsanctionsmanagingtheirimplementation(3)anincreasedpotentialfunintende

7、dconsequencesasaresultofgrowingcomplexityinsanctions(4)acceleratingefftsoffeigngovernmentstoinsulatetradepaymentchannelsfromU.S.sanctions(5)newtechnologicaldevelopmentsthatmayhavethepotentialtobothenhanceweakentheimpacto

8、fU.S.sanctionsintheyearsahead.Thisbriefrepresentssolelytheviewsoftheauthswhohavecontributedtothisreptintheirpersonalcapacities.Itdoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofothermembersofthetaskfceofanyinstitutionswithwhichtheaut

9、hsareaffiliated.Trend1:ShiftTowardMeAggressiveUseofU.S.UnilateralSanctionsIncludingSecondarySanctionsU.S.sanctionspolicymakershavelongcontemplatedimposedsanctionsunilaterallysuchasthelongstingU.S.embargoonCubatheU.S.sanc

10、tionsonIranLibyaenactedinthe1990s.HoweveroverthepastseveraldecadesAmericanofficialshavegenerallystriventoactmultilaterallyeitherbyobtainingU.N.SecurityCouncilsanctionssuchasthoseimposedin20162017onNthKeabydevelopingcoali

11、tionsoflikemindedstatestoimposemultilateralsanctionssuchasthejointU.S.E.U.sanctionsimposedonRussiain2014.KeyTakeaways?ThisbriefbymembersoftheCNASTaskFceontheFutureofU.S.Sanctionsdescribesfivehighimpactrecentdevelopmentsi

12、nAmerica’suseofsanctionstheimplicationsofthesedevelopmentsfthefutureofU.S.sanctions.?Thefivedevelopmentsare:1AshifttowardmeaggressiveuseofU.S.unilateralsanctionsincludingsecondarysanctions2Congress’sgrowingroleinsanction

13、simplementationsmanagement3Anincreaseinunintendedconsequences4GrowingfeigngovernmentefftstocircumventtheU.S.financialsystemU.S.sanctions5Increasinglyimptantroleoftechnology.?ThebriefalsorecommendsasetofstepsU.S.policymak

14、ersshouldtaketomaintainthepowerofU.S.sanctionsinthefuture.Theseincludepromotingnewfinancialtechnologyaddressingtheunintendedconsequencesoftheintensiveuseofunilateralsanctions.?Thebriefconcludesthatpolicymakersmustdedicat

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