探索金融彈性：一個(gè)專注于反向保理的強(qiáng)化框架

1、Global ResearchFundamental AnalyticsExploring financial resilience: An enhanced framework focused on reverse factoring Geoff Robinson, CA FCAAnalyst +44-20-7567 1706Yiding Lu, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7568 9091Renier Swanepoe

2、l, CA(SA), CMAAnalyst +44-20-7568 9025Courtney Cook, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7567 4871Understanding reverse factoring: Adding a credit risk overlay to our analysisWe first wrote about reverse factoring a year ago in our not

3、e ,Do YOU understand reverse factoring? How to enhance analytical and valuation transparency“. Reverse factoring can be a sensible cash management tool for companies; however, the associated accounting disclosures are o

4、ften limited. The majority of the companies we analysed classify reverse factoring as part of operating payables, which can impact operating metrics such as operating cash flow conversion and can misrepresent credit ri

5、sk by lowering the debt of the company. We overlay our work with an analysis of company credit ratings to enhance our view of credit risk. COVID-19 brings credit risk andconcerns that companies become over-reliant on

6、the cash flow benefits of reverse factoring (stretched working capital together with enhanced cash conversion and inflated operating cash flow metrics) and the fear that curtailment of the structure could create an immed

7、iate cash flow call on working capital (that is, the company has to repay its reverse-factored debt back to the bank and reset its normal credit terms to more traditional levels exreverse factoring).Companies can become

8、dependent on these cash flow benefits, and rather than leave this liquidity lying idle, use the cash flow enhancement to support reinvestment (capex and working capital expansion) into their business models. If the facil

9、ity is pulled, the reinvestment requirement may still crave the lost liquidity into the short and medium term.The impact on liquidity we believe outweighs the pressure of a “debt-like“ obligation. Any benefit from the li

10、quidity inflow must be balanced against the risk of its reversal Reverse factoring arguably contributed to a collection of high-profile defaults in recent years.6 April 2020 EquitiesEquities GlobalValuation, Modelling Su

11、pplier payment schemes; and■ Supply-chain finance.With this knowledge, we performed a search using AlphaSense, a financial research data platform, for the above keywords in earnings calls. We found that there has been a

12、significant increase in calls which mentioned reverse factoring over the past year (see Figure 3) and this increase is mainly driven by the Industrials sector.Figure 3: Number of earnings call transcripts which mentioned

13、 reverse factoring over the past 10 yearsSource: AlphaSense However, the number of earnings calls which mentioned reverse factoring remains low in absolute and relative terms, possibly showing a limited level of awarenes

14、s in the market as well as a limited disclosures from the companies.■ IndustrialsConsumer Discretionary . Information Technology Communication Services . Consumer Staples■ MaterialsEnergy■ Utilities■ Health Care30■ Indus

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