21843.上海高校人才規(guī)模統(tǒng)計及ecm模型預測

1、學校代碼：10270分類號：O21學號：122200684碩士學位論文上海高校人才規(guī)模統(tǒng)計及ECM模型預測學院：數(shù)理學院專業(yè)：概率論與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計研究方向：試驗設計研究生姓名：趙夢雅指導教師：岳榮先、房云完成日期：二零一五年三月AbstractShanghaiNmalUniversityMasterofScienceAbstractAbstractOnthebackgroundfknowledgeeconomyweusestatistica

2、lmethodstopredictShanghaiuniversitiesstudents.Basedonhisticaldatasfrom1998to2013weuseECMmathematicsmethodtopredictthenumberofShanghaiuniversitiesfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsadulteducationonlineeducationstudentst

3、hearticlecanprovidecertainreferencebasisfrecruitmentofShanghaiuniversities’studentsinthefuture.Firstlywegivesomeintroductionaboutthebackgroundoftalent’scalerelevantmathematicstheyinthearticle.Secondlyweusetwomethodsoneis

4、thefloatingofstudentsmethoditisamethodtopredictthenumberoffulltimeundergraduatescollegestudents.Tobeginwithbirthstheywillgototheprimaryschoolinsixyearsthentheywillgotouniversitiesineighteenyears.TheotherisECMmathematicsm

5、ethodweuseprincipalcomponentanalysisthenumberofstudentsfourcovariates’values——ShanghairesidentpopulationGDPPCthesecondthirdindustryoutput，thenwefitECMpredictfourcovariates’numericalvaluesinadozenyearswecandeducethenumber

6、aboutfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsgraduatestudentsinadozenyears.Basedonnumbervalueratiobetweenfulltimeundergraduatescollegestudentsadultonlineeducationstudentswecanwkoutnumberratioaboutthefuturethenwepredictthenu

7、mberofadulteducationonlineeducation.FinallyweseparatelytakeoutlastyeardatalasttwoyearsdatalastthreeyearsdatatofitECMthenwecomparetheresultstohisticaldataobtaintheconclusionthatECMpredictionisclosetoreality.KeyWds:talents