住房市場價格大幅上升能否作為房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮界定【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p><b>　　原文</b></p><p>　　can large price increases in the housing market be defined as a housing</p><p>　　Material Source:http://de

2、epthought.ttu.ee/majandus/tekstid/tutwpe_06_146.pdf</p><p>　　Author:Ene KolbreandKallakmaa-Kapsta, Angelika</p><p>　　The Estonian economy including the real estate market, especially the housing

3、 market, has undergone a rapid development since its very existence in the 1990s. The number of notarised purchase-sale contracts of real estate has increased over 80 times over the past 10 years. The fastest growth rate

4、s in the real estate market have been in the housing sector. The total value of notarised purchase-sale contracts of registered immovables with residential buildings and ownership of dwellings has incre</p><p

5、>　　The development of the housing market has been investigated from three main aspects. First, the development of and changes in Estonian economic environment are evaluated and links to the general development of the

6、whole real estate market and especially of housing market are provided. Secondly, in greater detail the demand and factors influencing demand in the housing market are analysed. Thirdly, the supply of the housing market,

7、 the factors that facilitate and inhibit this development are inve</p><p>　　The Baltic countries are at the top in the EU in terms of economic growth. They have the highest growth rates in Europe and are amo

8、ng the most rapidly growing economies in the world. In 2005, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had the strongest growth rates since 2000. The real GDP growth in 2005 was 9.8% in Estonia, 10.2% in Latvia and 7.5% in Lithuania

9、 (Von Hagen 2006). At the same time, a significant inducement of this growth is the catching-up process. The Baltic countries have still the lowest p</p><p>　　Strong housing markets generate employment in th

10、e real estate and related sectors, boosting incomes and consumption High economic growth, low interest rates have also influenced the real estate market in the Baltic countries. The research question is: can large price

11、increases in the housing market be defined as a housing boom? The economic environment of a parcel of real estate affects its value. The economic environment can be analysed and the resulting effect can be shown by the

12、 impact of u</p><p>　　Market studies rely mostly on two analytical techniques:1) bringing out development trends, analysing the factors affecting it and projecting trends for the future, and 2) using econom

13、etric models. Econometric models are widely used in such large and well-developed real estate markets as USA (Angell and Williams 2005) and UK (Muellbauer and Murphy 1997). These models are mainly used to investigate the

14、 demand side as it is complicated to build a model for the supply side because of the secondary</p><p>　　When analyzing the real estate market and its cycles it is important to pay attention whether the mark

15、et is on the rise or there are bubbles or a boom. Historical episodes have shown that asset price bubbles can evolve quickly and that the cost of their bursting can be very high for the economy. Asset price bubbles are d

16、ifficult to identify in real time and are thus often only identified ex post. Notwithstanding, it appears that there are a number of tools that can help to identify the emergenc</p><p>　　Studies have indica

17、ted that housing price busts have been associated with more severe macroeconomic and financial developments than equity price busts (ibid). There are many ways to define a “housing boom.” Angell and Williams(2005) defin

18、e a housing boom as a 30% or greater increase in inflation adjusted (real) home prices during any three-year period. Thomas Helbing concluded in his research of real estate cycles in 14 countries between 1970-2002 that t

19、he market is booming when the price rise </p><p>　　The analysis results in the Estonian residential market suggested that the apartment market is very price sensitive; the correlation between the number of t

20、ransactions and the price was 0.9. A price rise is accompanied by a high transactions intensity and drop of prices leads to a decrease in the number of transactions. According to the usual market logic this is very illog

21、ical. At higher prices demand should be lower and at lower prices vice versa (Jarve 2006). Based on the above, this paper se</p><p>　　This section sets the scene for the empirical analysis that follows by pr

22、esenting some stylized facts for the markets for housing loans and housing in Greece. Overall the evolution of real housing loans has gone hand-in-hand with that of real housing prices during the period from 1993 to 2005

23、,for which housing price data is available Another factor that contributed significantly to the impressive growth rates of housing loans was the considerable fall in mortgage interest rates, both in nominal </p>&

24、lt;p>　　The interaction of credit and property prices is of particular relevance for central bank policy. The financial accelerator mechanism which is part of the nexus of this interaction is central to the monetary po

25、licy transmission mechanism. Moreover, fluctuations in asset price, and housing prices in particular, pose challenges to monetary policy makers in calibrating the appropriate response. Finally, this inter-action can have

26、 important implications for financial stability. As indicated above, d</p><p>　　In this paper we aim to empirically investigate the pattern of causality between credit and property prices, focusing on housin

27、g loans and housing prices in the case of Greece. This is of particular interest, given that the deregulation of mortgage lending in Greece, which was followed by a rapid increase in housing loans, went hand-in-hand with

28、 a continuous increase in housing prices that, in nominal terms, averaged 11%per annum between 1995 and 2005.This led some observers to suggest that the </p><p><b>　　譯文</b></p><p>　　

29、住房市場價格大幅上升能否作為房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮界定</p><p>　　資料來源：http://deepthought.ttu.ee/majandus/tekstid/tutwpe_06_146.pdf</p><p>　　作者：Ene KolbreandKallakmaa-Kapsta,Angelika</p><p>　　愛沙尼亞經(jīng)濟(jì)包括房地產(chǎn)市場，特別是住房市場

30、，從20世紀(jì)90年代以來已經(jīng)取得了快速發(fā)展。在過去的10年里，在房地產(chǎn)市場上增長速度最快的是在住房方面,經(jīng)公證購買預(yù)售房地產(chǎn)合同的人數(shù)增加了80倍，經(jīng)公證購買住宅建筑合同和不動產(chǎn)所有權(quán)登記合同的總價值由1982年的271萬歐元，增加至2001年的2005萬歐元，而平均購買和出售每一個2居室的公寓平方米的價格在2004年上升到22％，并在2005年上升到59％。但在近幾年卻出現(xiàn)了反復(fù)變化，這預(yù)示著其房地產(chǎn)住宅市場將瀕臨崩潰。</p&

31、gt;<p>　　它對房屋市場的發(fā)展主要從三個方面進(jìn)行了研究。首先，從愛沙尼亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境的變化來對整個房地產(chǎn)市場和住房市場的發(fā)展進(jìn)行評估，特別是開發(fā)環(huán)節(jié)。其次，由各種需求和影響因素，對住房市場需求進(jìn)行分析。最后，對促進(jìn)和抑制住房市場供應(yīng)的因素，進(jìn)行了研究。同時也對愛沙尼亞與拉脫維亞和立陶宛在房地產(chǎn)市場上的差異也進(jìn)行了研究。</p><p>　　根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長排名波兒地克在歐盟國家中名列前矛。他們的經(jīng)

32、濟(jì)增長率不僅在歐洲是最高，在世界上大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長快速的國家當(dāng)中也是靠前。自2000年以來愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率都很高。在2005年愛沙尼亞國民生產(chǎn)總值增長是9.8%，拉脫維亞為10.2%和立陶宛為7.5%(馮哈根2006)。同時，他們之間的競爭是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力。但波兒地克在歐盟的國家中有著最低的國民平均收入。三個經(jīng)濟(jì)開放的國家追求高投資比率和大往來帳戶，但是大外資流入的同時也帶來更多的風(fēng)險。迅速增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)也同時反射出家庭

33、開支和收入的增長率。低息率和強(qiáng)烈的投資需求促進(jìn)了信貸的發(fā)展。迅速擴(kuò)充信貸使得私人部門要從海外借用經(jīng)費(fèi)。</p><p>　　迅速發(fā)展的住房市場影響了房地產(chǎn)及相關(guān)行業(yè)的就業(yè)，收入的增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)消費(fèi)增長，低利率也影響了波羅的海國家的房地產(chǎn)市場。本文研究問題是：能以住房市場價格大幅上升作為房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮界定？該地塊的房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境影響了它本身的價值?？梢酝ㄟ^需求和供給的分析來反映經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的影響。因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的變化會

34、影響需求和供給曲線的位置。影響生活空間需求級別的因素如下：年齡組成的家庭，家庭收入，信貸能力，替代的價格單位，擁有的資產(chǎn)和對未來的預(yù)期價格.房地產(chǎn)市場供應(yīng)的新建筑必須跟現(xiàn)有的庫存分開完成審查并通過檢查。這種方法是必要的，因?yàn)檫@兩種商品被認(rèn)為是由消費(fèi)者和各供應(yīng)受到不同經(jīng)濟(jì)變數(shù)的影響不同。新增建設(shè)海峽西岸影響市場供應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量有：生產(chǎn)和施工過程中使用生產(chǎn)和技術(shù)要素的增長率，在市場上建設(shè)者的數(shù)量和建設(shè)者對銷售數(shù)量的預(yù)期。在轉(zhuǎn)售市場上，供應(yīng)并非跟

35、輸入價格,建設(shè)者等生成導(dǎo)向變量的函數(shù)一樣有生產(chǎn)功能，它是一個非生產(chǎn)功能，如經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口統(tǒng)計變數(shù)（卡恩1998）。</p><p>　　市場調(diào)查主要依靠二種分析方法：1)預(yù)計發(fā)展趨勢，分析影響它的因素和將來發(fā)展趨勢。2)使用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。計量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型在像房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)達(dá)的美國(Angell和威廉斯2005)和英國(Muellbauer和墨菲1997)用途廣泛。由于2手房市場的存在建立供應(yīng)模型是很復(fù)雜,所以這些模型用于需

36、要調(diào)查的那一方面。(Leishman2003年，137)對于愛沙尼亞語房地產(chǎn)市場使用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型是由于房地產(chǎn)的簡短歷史限制。正因?yàn)楹喍虤v史但又快速的發(fā)展，所以分析愛沙尼亞房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展趨勢又是更加適當(dāng)?shù)摹?lt;/p><p>　　在分析房地產(chǎn)市場的時候，重要的是要注意市場是否存在有泡沫或繁榮上升的周期。歷史事件表明，資產(chǎn)價格泡沫之所以能夠發(fā)展得很快，是因?yàn)樗麄兊谋瞥杀臼欠浅８叩?。資產(chǎn)價格泡沫是很難確定其實(shí)際發(fā)生時間，因

37、而往往只能事后發(fā)現(xiàn)。盡管如此，似乎有大量的工具，可以幫助識別泡沫（歐洲央行2005年）的出現(xiàn)。平均大約20年發(fā)生一次房屋價格蕭條，經(jīng)過4年，大約百分之三十的房屋價格下降。在第4年蕭條之后雖然只有大約三分之一的股票價格高漲，但約百分之四十的住房價格的高漲已經(jīng)結(jié)束了（波爾多2003年）。</p><p>　　有研究表明，與金融股票價格相比,住宅價格與的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展更相關(guān)（同上）。界定“房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮的方法”有很多，

38、安格爾和威廉斯（2005）定義在任何調(diào)整的三年期間（真實(shí)）房價增加為通貨膨脹率的30％或更高為房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮。托馬斯黑爾賓在七零年至2002年之間結(jié)束他對14個國家房地產(chǎn)周期研究，當(dāng)時正是市場蓬勃發(fā)展，兩年內(nèi)價格至少上漲32％的通脹的時候。他認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮并不總是意味著市場或所謂的泡沫形成過熱。他定義為一個物業(yè)的情況價格遠(yuǎn)高于其合理價值（黑爾賓2006）。顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能繁榮的指標(biāo)是經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長和貸款條件放寬，承擔(dān)更大的信用風(fēng)險，低利率，

39、和未來的積極預(yù)期。分析這些指標(biāo)，我們可以識別房地產(chǎn)市場是繁榮或是泡沫。另一種可能性，假定繁榮或泡沫來分析住宅市場價格和交易動態(tài)。</p><p>　　愛沙尼亞住宅市場的分析結(jié)果表明，公寓市場的價格非常敏感，兩者之間的交易數(shù)量和價格的相關(guān)性為0.9。價格上漲是由于高強(qiáng)度交易數(shù)量，而交易價格的下跌導(dǎo)致了相應(yīng)交易數(shù)量減少。按照正常的市場邏輯，這是非常不合邏輯的。在高價格的需求，產(chǎn)生較低的交易數(shù)量，反之亦然（Jarve