2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、ClimatechangeBellweatherAstatisticalanalysisshowshowthingsreallyareheatingupAug11th2012|fromtheprinteditionAREheatwavesmecommonthantheyusedtobeThatisthequestionaddressedbyJamesHansenhiscolleaguesinapaperjustpublishedinth

2、eProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.Theirconclusionisthattheyare—thedatatheydrawondonotevenincludethecurrentsccherthatisdryingupmuchofNthAmericathreateningitsharvest.Theteam’smethodofpresentationhoweverhascausedas

3、tiramongthosewhofeelthatscientificpapersshouldbedispassionateintheirdeliveryoftheevidence.Fthepaperinterestingthoughtheevidenceitdeliversisisfarfromdispassionate.DrHansenwhoisheadoftheGoddardInstitutefSpaceStudiesabranch

4、ofNASAthatisbasedinNewYkisapolemicistoftherisksofmanmadeglobalwarming.Despitehisjobrunningagovernmentlabatyhehasmanagedtogethimselfarrestedonthreeoccasionsfprotestingagainstthosehethinksarecausingsuchclimatechange.Heclea

5、rlystatesinthepaper’sintroductionthathewaslookingfawayofconveyinghisfearstoascepticalpublic.Someofthatscepticismisconnectedwiththefactthatalthoughchangesintheclimatewillinevitablyresultinchangesintheweatherribinganygiven

6、event—suchasalocalheatwave—toclimatechangeisimpossible.DrHansenhastherefetriedtogobeyondthestudyofindividualcausesbydemonstratingthatwhatwasonceunusualisnowcommon.LongerhottersummersTodosohehiscolleaguestook60years’wthof

7、data(theperiodfrom1951to2011)fromtheGoddardInstitute’ssurfaceairtemperatureanalysis.Thisanalysisdividesthepla’ssurfaceintocells250km(about150miles)acrossrecdstheaveragetemperatureineachcell.Theresearchersbroketheirdatain

8、tosixdecadelongblockscomparedthoseblocks’statisticalproperties.Theylookedinparticularatthethreemonthswhichconstitutesummerinthenthernhemisphere(JuneJulyAugust).Firsttheycreatedareferencevaluefeachcell.Thiswasitsaveragete

9、mperatureoverthosethreemonthsfrom195180.Thentheycalculatedhowmuchthetemperatureineachcelldeviatedfromthecell’sreferencevalueinanygivensummer.ThatdonetheyIfthemeanofeachcurvewerethesamesuchflatteningwouldimplybothmecoldpe

10、riodsmehotones.Butbecausethemeanisrisingtheeffectatthecoldendofthecurvesisdiminishedwhilethatatthehotendisenhanced.Theupshotismehotperiodsoflocalweather.Meoverthebellcurvemethodmakesitpossibletosayjusthowmuchmehotweather

11、thereis.DrHansendefinedextremeconditionsasthoseoccurringmethanthreestarddeviationsfromthemeanofhisreferencecurve.Inthatcurvethiswouldbeaneighthofapercentateachendwhichismelessthevalueinthecurvef195161.Nowadaysthoughextre

12、meconditions(atleastthosethatwouldhavebeenconsideredextremehalfacenturyago)canbefoundatanygiventimeinabout8%ofthewld.Localweatherpatternsdoofcoursehavelocalcauses.Tothatextenttheyareaccidental.ButDrHansen’sanalysissugges

13、tsthatclaimsthereismehotweatheraroundthanthereusedtobehavesubstancetoo.Nothinginhisanalysisspeaksofthecauseofthatsubstance.Thatisdeliberate.Ashesaysinthepaperhewantsthedatatospeakfthemselves—thoughheispersonallyconvinced

14、thatthecauseishumangeneratedemissionsofgreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxide.ButastheUnitedStatesbakesinwhatmayturnouttobearecdheatwavehehopeshemightnowpersuadethosefwhomglobalwarmingisasitwereonthebackburnertoagreethatitis

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