156科爾尼--中遠(yuǎn)集團(tuán)做的—物流行業(yè)及發(fā)展趨勢(shì)研究報(bào)告

1、July, 2001,COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALS,,Logistics Services Industry Environment & Trend Analysis- COSCO Comments and A.T. Kearney Remarks,The contents of this document were prepared by A.T. Kearney and may not be us

2、ed, altered or disclosed to other parties, without the written permission of A.T. Kearney. The information contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T. Kearney believes are reliable. Howe

3、ver, A.T. Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.,Table of Contents,Executive SummaryMarket Size & GrowthGlobalChinaService Deman

4、dGlobal TrendsChina TrendsCompetitive EnvironmentGlobalChinaRegulatory EnvironmentInformation TechnologyAppendix,Executive Summary,A.T. Kearney’s definition of the logistics services industry,Structuring and mana

5、ging, on behalf of cargo owners, solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain (i.e. transportation, warehousing, (de)consolidation, etc.),The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth

6、opportunity, both globally and in China,Market Characteristic,Conclusion,,,Customers are increasingly demanding high value logistics service solutions, requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabili

7、ties,Increasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for success,China’s entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications - the l

8、ogistics market will grow rapidly, and competitive intensity will dramatically increase,Strong IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics service

9、s business,,,,,,Market Size & Growth,Service Demand,Competitive Environment,Regulatory Environment,InformationTechnology,Source: A.T. Kearney,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in

10、 2000. The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China logistics industry will be shaped by China’s entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening

11、 of the market to foreign competition,Industry Scenario 2006,Rapid increase in M&A activitiesKey alliances formed within the next 2-3 years,Rapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solutio

12、n, including logistics, transportation and IT,Implementation of e-commerce initiatives and increasing dependence on IT network,Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances,Global Competitors,Technology,The logistics market will g

13、row rapidlyCompetitive intensity will dramatically increase,WTO Entry,,,,,Source: A.T. Kearney,1. Market Size & Growth,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000,The global logisti

14、cs outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5

15、 yearsThe Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five yearsThe greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing,

16、 and transport managementThe growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers’ propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growthCustomer electronics, autom

17、otive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China log

18、istics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaThe transportation and related exp

19、enditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs - indicating a major improvement opportunityIn Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong a

20、nd ShanghaiIn Inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionGrowth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and i

21、ncreased propensity to outsource logisticsFavorable macro economic outlookPublic policy and spendingIncreasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needsGrowing IT and E-business,Market Size & Growth - Global,T

22、he global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000,Source: Chinainfobank, CSFB, A.T. Kearney,Global Transportation and Logistics Market Size (2000),,,Transportation and related activities handled

23、by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers themselves(e.g. private fleet, private warehousing),,Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers(e.g. public warehous

24、ing etc.),,Combination of “transportation and related services” provisioned by 3rd party logistics service providers,,,US$ 3,800 Bn,Outsourced,US$190 Bn,Global transportation and related expenditures,Global outsourced tr

25、ansportation and related services,Global logistics outsourcing market,US$ Bn,The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of

26、2.3% over the next 5 years,Note: (1) Asia includes Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and TaiwanSource: Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Analysis,Transportation and Related Expenditures by Region (2000),Tran

27、sportation and Related Expenditures by Function (2000),US$ Bn,Total = US$ 3,837 Bn,Others: -1.4%,Asia(1): 2.2%,Europe: 2.6%,North America: 4.0%,3,424,3,837,4,389,Warehousing$304 Bn,Trans

28、port$2,204 Bn,Others$55 Bn,Shipper-Related$20 Bn,Inventory$1,102 Bn,Admin$152 Bn,,CAGR 2000-2006,,,,The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39%

29、over the next five years,Note:Asia includes China, Japan, Honk Kong, Korea, Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Analysis,Logistics Outsourcing Market in Asia - Gross Revenue(US$ Bn),

30、CAGR (99-01) = 38%,CAGR (01-06) = 39%,The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport management,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Transport,Warehousing,TransportManagement,IT,SupplementaryLogistic

31、 Services,Purchase OrderManagement,LogisticsManagement,30%,47%,48%,85%,20%,40%,39%,76%,23%,2%,5%,16%,% of respondents outsourcing 1998% of respondents planed outsourcing 2003,,,13%,8%,Outsourcing by Function,,Resource

32、require-ments,,Complexity,Note:The percentage may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: Based on several A.T. Kearney studies, including:Worldwide study comprising 280 participants (automotive 19%, electronic

33、s 25%, retail 27%, chemicals 29%)European study comprising 500 participants (retail 26%, food & beverage 26%, commodities 22%, machinery 12%, automotive 7%, electronics & high-tech 4%),,Outsourcing of non-core b

34、usiness activities,Organic growth of transportation markets,,Increased complexity of global supply chainsRecognition by many shippers that supply chain strategy may be a key competitive advantageWillingness to outsourc

35、e when logistics not seen as core competencyDevelopment of superior logistics capability by a few 3PLs,Growth in demand for transportation services expands with international trade growthGlobalization of many industrie

36、s means goods need to move over longer distances at faster speeds with higher reliability,Growth in Logistics Services,Source: UBS Warburg, IDC,Growth Drivers,Details,1,2,The growth of the global logistics services indu

37、stry is mainly driven by shippers’ propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth,,Consumer electronics, automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logisti

38、cs services in China,Note: 1. Size of circle relative to segment size in 2000 2. Analysis is indicative onlySource: A.T. Kearney field interviews and research,High,Low,Growth (2001-2006),Remarks,Industry,Lo

39、w,High,Consumer Electronics,Apparel,,Automotive,Outsourcing Propensity,Tobacco, Liquor,,,,PrimaryGoods,,Opportunity Assessment by Industry,Chemicals &Materials,,Furniture,Machinery,Add market and trends analysis

40、by industry,Market Size & Growth - China,The China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years,Logistics Outsourcing Market - Gross Revenue (2000, US$

41、Bn),Note:Asia includes China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney Estimates,,CAGR=35%,,,190,,,,,,23,0.61,China Logistics Service Market (US$, Bn),,,The logistics se

42、rvices industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China,Characteristics,Emerging demand for outsourced logistics services Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of servic

43、es outsourcedTraditional in-house behaviour being impacted,Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader servicesLarge number of services providers competing for customers and human resourcesMo

44、st high value added services are free and provided as selling points,Logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competitionConsolidated service market with a few established market leaders

45、Logistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business models,Global logistics integrators provide one-stop solution worldwideSpecialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providersO

46、ptimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chain,Stage,Emergence,Growth,Penetration,Globalization,World Leading(US),China Today,Source: A.T. Kearney,,Warehousing and Distribution,Trucking,Rail Fr

47、eightAlthough Heavily Used, Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is PoorRailway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company Containers,Airline,Customs Brokerage,CourierLimited Presenc

48、e of Foreign Firms As JV E.G. DHL Sinotrans Regional Segregation in Operation,Logistics Center and Freight Forwarding,Shipping,The domestic warehousing market is currently small and over-supplied with basic warehouses

49、providing virtually no value-added services Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies,River transportation has declinedMost vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs,Truck

50、ing companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions,Government has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder w

51、ho is usually sub-contracted by the international freight forwarder,Seven domestic airlines dominate regional operations Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per week,Many customs cl

52、earing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles Customs clearing procedures took at least ½ - 1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hour,The logistics services industry is still at an earl

53、y stage of evolution in China (continued),Source: A.T. Kearney Analysis,Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs – indicating a major improveme

54、nt opportunity,Total Transportation and Related Expenditures and % of GDP (2000),Note: (1) VAS: Value-added-services(2) Including packaging, admin, information services, ect.Source: Bowersox and Calantone, CSFB, I

55、MF 1997 study; Chinainfobank; A.T. Kearney Analysis,US$ Bn,China Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function (2000),Total = US$ 248 Bn,US$ Bn,(1),(2),Demand Growth,In Coastal China, demand for logistic

56、s services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai,High,Low,Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin,4,,Beijing is the No. 1 air cargo center in China. In addition, Beijing’s hi-tech industry, which needs a lot of air transpo

57、rtation, is developing very fastOver 80% of the volume through Tianjin port are agricultural products, furniture, metal hardware and raw materials, all being low value products. In addition, most shippers are in poor f

58、inancial conditions and are very price sensitive,Shandong (Qingdao),4,,Qingdao has several famous local companies, such as Haier, HiSense, Aukma and Qingdao Beer. They are more quality oriented and less price sensitive

59、Frozen products account for 15-20% of the volume. Quality requirements for frozen products are very high in terms of timing and handling care. Hence, frozen products shippers tend to be less price sensitive and more qu

60、ality concernedFootwear and garments account for significant portion. Some large customers such as Payless Shoes (No. 1 customer of COSCO in volume) requires accurate shipping time and full range of sophisticated 3PL s

61、ervices from P/O management, trade consulting to space booking, warehousing and transportation,Province,Logistics Demand – Selected Provinces in Coastal China,Guangdong,Demand Size,5,,,,Remarks,Major exports are processi

62、ng of lower value-added products ? no special requirement for logistics quality;Road transportation is convenient, often containerized in factory to reduce cost ? less need for warehousing/ consolidationElectronics ind

63、ustry is booming in Dongguan, which has some leading companies like Huawei ? potential large profitable customers,,,,,,Strong,Weak,Shanghai(Jiangsu, Zhejiang),5,,Shanghai is the fast growing economic/ financial center i

64、n China, which has some major MNCs such as SGM, Acer, Philips, etc. They are matured customers of logistics services and less price sensitive. On the other hand, to get the deals from them usually needs to involve high l

65、evel negociationLarge companies in Shanghai and nearby areas are mainly JVs of automobile and consumer electronics industry, which have high product value and lower price sensitivity,,Source: A.T. Kearney field intervie

66、ws and analysis,,,Demand Size,Sichuan (Chengdu),Have the 3rd largest distribution center in China, the largest population, and important heavy industry baseThe logistics industry there has already attracted interest of

67、foreign large shippers like Ikea and investors including Hutchison WhampoaLocated in mountain areas, road transport infrastructure is inconvenient, so highly relying on rail transport,Chongqing,2,,Agricultural products,

68、 metal products and motor cycles, which totally account for over 80% of the export volume, are all low-value products, price sensitive and have flat growthUnderdeveloped infrastructure, esp. road and rail transportation