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1、September2018USPharmaceuticalsCantheSummerPharmaHeatWaveContinueIntoFallRESEARCHANALYSTSVamilDivanMD(212)5385394vamil.divan@creditMichaelV.MabitoPh.D.(212)3257298michael.mabito@creditUyEar(212)3251729uy.ear@creditDISCLOS
2、UREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinv
3、estsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdii?GroupBackinFavasWeMoveIntotheFall:TheUSPharmagrouphad
4、astrongsummerdrivenbyattractivevaluationssolid2Q18earningsperhapssomemisstepsbylargecapcompaniesinothersects.InadditioncommentaryoutofWashingtonfromourcompaniessuggestagreaterlikelihoodthatdrugpricingrefmmayfocusmeonthec
5、urrentrebatebaseddrugpricingsystemrefmstowhichcouldbeneutraltopositivefmanufacturerscertainlymuchlessonerousthanissuessuchasreimptationofdrugsdirectnegotiationofpriceswiththegovernmentwouldbe.Beyonddrugpricingafavablereg
6、ulatyenvironmentthebenefitsoftheUStaxrefmalongwithstillreasonablevaluationsshouldultimatelyallowfmegeneralistinteresttoreturntothegroup.Ultimatelydeliveringoninnovationremainsparamountfcompaniestocompetedeliverupsideinan
7、increasinglychallengingpayerenvironment.?MRKRemainsOurTopPick:FollowingthereleaseofveryimpressivedataattheAACROoncologymeetingsweseeMRKasourTopPickaswebelievethecompanyhassolidifieditsleadershippositioninthecommerciallyl
8、ucrativelungcancermarket.WeexpectstronguptakeofKeytrudamonotherapyincombinationwithchemotherapyinlungcancerwhilethebroaderimmunooncologyopptunityinothertumtypescontinuestogrow.WeplaceJNJatnumbertwoinouruniversemainlydriv
9、enbythegrowthpotentialofseveralkeypharmaassetssuchasXareltoDarzalexImbruvicawhichholdpotentialfsignificantupsideaswellasthePAHproductsacquiredthroughtheATLNacquisitionthefinancialstrengththatthecompanyhasprovidingoptiona
10、lity.WealsocontinuetoseevalueinAGN’sbasebusinessledbytheirindustryleadingBotoxaestheticsfranchise.WealsoseeAGNhavingapipelinethatwebelieveisunderappreciatedledbydrugsindepression(rapastinel)migraine.?AIMTALNAAmongstOurTo
11、pPicksinSCap:WeseeAIMT(peanutallergy)ALNA(kidneystones)asattractivelongtermScapholdings.IntermsonmeneartermcatalystsweexpectdatafFOMX’sFMX101(3Q)FMX103(early4Q)ALKS3831(3Q)GLPG’sFINCH2dataffilgotinibinthecomingmonthswhil
12、ealsocloselytrackingprogressofthesplitofIRWDtheuptakeoftheCGRP(migraine)classthereadthroughtoALDR’septinezumab.3SectWideChallengesLikelytoRemainMakingStockionKeyInSCapAIMTALNAOfferLongerTermUpsideFOMXNearTermPotentialSou
13、rces:CompanydataCreditSuisseestimatesExecutiveSummaryOutperfm($40TP)“StrongPALISADEDataPositionsAIMTWellHeadingIntoBLAFiling”($26TP)“ExpectFurtherRegulatyClaritySoonWithInitialPhase3Datain2H2019”($9TP)“NewsflowInvestInte
14、resttoPickUpasWeApproachPivotalDatafFMX101FMX103”($51TP)“VivitrolAristadaNeedtoCarryNearTermWhileImptantPipelineCatalystsf54613831Expectedin2H2018”($22TP)“ChoppingWood:IronwoodtoSplitIntoTwoDetailsAroundthatProcesstobeCl
15、oselyWatched”Neutral(€92TP)“PELICANCFDataDisappointingRecoverytoComeFromFilgotinibIPFOtherAssets”($19TP)“EptinezumabProfileBetterThanAppreciatedbutPathtoUpsideDifficult”($34TP)“CommercializationSlowDisappointingMARINERPr
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