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1、EconomicResearchApril302019SpecialReptLivinginapostinflationtargetingwld?TherepercussionsoftheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC)haveshakenthepillarsuponwhichflexibleinflationtargetingregimesst.TheupcomingFederalReservereviewrepr
2、esentsthefirststepinabroaderreconsiderationofmoarypolicyframewksbyG3centralbanks.?CentralbankersarenolongerconfidenttheycancontrolinflationoveratwotothreeyearhizonasthepricePhillipscurvehasbeendmant.Inadditionaintheequil
3、ibriumneutralinterestrate(r)suggeststhattheircurrenttoolboxmaybetoolimitedinawldwithaneffectivelowerinterestratebound(ELB).Confidencethatstabilizinginflationcloseto2%willdeliveroptimalmacroeconomicoutcomeshasalsowaned.?G
4、3centralbankshavereactedindifferentwaystothischallenge.TheFederalReserveisnowactivelyencouraginganovershootofits2%inflationtargethasannouncedafmalreviewthatlookslikelytoinstituteaninflationaveragingframewk.?AlthoughtheBo
5、Jshifteditsframewkover201316ithassubsequentlyundermineditsinflationtargetingcommitmentbyacceptingthatitwillnotachieveitsinflationobjectiveinthefeseeablefuture.TheECBhasalsofailedtorespondtoapersistentinflationundershoots
6、ignsthatitscredibilityiseroding.?ThisgreatertolerancetoapersistentinflationundershootbytheECBBoJislinkedtotheirpoliticaleconomicconstraints.Butitalsoreflectstheirfailuretorecognizetheneedtorespondtoachanginglscape.?Thepa
7、thsindividualcentralbanksfollowwillvarybutthedestinationislikelytoincludeareconsiderationoftheirstrategiesalongfivelines:1)Multipleobjectives.Arecognitionthatinflationisonlyoneofmultipledistinctmoarypolicyobjectives.2)St
8、atecontingenttargets.Twothreeyearaheadinflationtargets(toleranceranges)needtosetbasedonthepathinflationtheeconomyhastravelledaccountingfpolicymaker’smultipleobjectives.3)Higherthan2%.ConstraintsrelatedtotheELBwillrequire
9、amovetoahigherinflationtargetifrremainsdepressed.4)Anexpedtoolbox.Theemergenceofabroaderframewkintegratingbalancesheetinterestratemacroprudentialinstrumentsthatcanbeemployedatallstagesofthebusinesscycle.5)Greatercodinati
10、onwithotherarmsofgovernmenttoalleviatemoarypolicyconstraintstoshareresponsibilitywheremoaryfiscalregulatypolicyoverlaps.?TheFed’sreviewshouldbeseenasthefirststeponalongjourneythatwillsignificantlyaltermoarypolicyframewks
11、.Viewedfromabroaderhisticalsweepthependulumshouldalsobeseenasswingingawayfromrulestowardsdiscretion.TableofContents:Introduction…………………………23Therisefallofinflationtargeting....…………………………..…….34Losingconfidenceininflationc
12、ontrol……………………………….45Toolboxconstraintsduetolowerr………………………..….....56Optimizingmacroperfmance……………………..………..69Theneedfpolicycodination……………………….…….......910ThereviewattheFederalReserve..…..…………….….…...1012Theimplications
13、ftheECB.....1214TheimplicationsftheBOJ…..1416Appendix:assessingQE’simpact..…………………..….…...1619DavidMackie(4420)71348325david.mackie@BruceKasman(1212)8345515bruce.c.kasman@MichaelFeroli(1212)8345523michael.e.feroli@Hirosh
14、iUgai(813)67361173hiroshi.ugai@GregFuzesi(4420)71348310greg.x.fuzesi@3EconomicResearchLivinginapostinflationtargetingwldApril302019JPMganChaseBankN.ALondonBranchDavidMackie(4420)71348325david.mackie@JPMganChaseBankNABruc
15、eKasman(1212)8345515bruce.c.kasman@JPMganChaseBankNAMichaelFeroli(1212)8345523michael.e.feroli@JPMganSecuritiesJapanCo.Ltd.HiroshiUgai(813)67361173hiroshi.ugai@?Abiggertoolbox.Iftheobjectivesofpricestabilityfullemploymen
16、tfinancialstabilityarerelatedbutdistinctcentralbankerswillneedmultipletoolstoenablethemtoachievetheirgoals.ThereisalreadyaframewkinplacefusingunconventionaltoolstoaddresstheELBconstraint.thereisarecognitionoftheneedtouse
17、regulatysupervisyinstrumentsmeactivelytopromotefinancialstability.Butthebroaderframewkfintegratingbalancesheetinterestratemacroprudentialpoliciesisstillinanentstage.?Balancingpartnershipwithoperationalindependence.Withce
18、ntralbankholdingsofgovernmentdebtlikelytoremainelevatedcentralbankersbeingmeactivelyinvolvedinusingregulatysupervisytoolscodinationwithotherarmsofgovernmentwillnaturallyincrease.Centralbankswillneedtofindabalanceastheycr
19、eatecloserpartnershipswithotherarmsofgovernmentwktomaintaintheiroperationalindependence.Thesechallengesarelikelytobemademedifficultbythelargeoverhangofpublicsectdebtinthedevelopedwldthepressureonpublicfinancesthatissetto
20、buildaspopulationsage.TherisefallofinflationtargetingThehistyofcentralbankingrepresentsanongoingconflictbetweenrelyingonrulesversusdiscretioninthepursuitofmacroeconomicobjectives.Arulesbasedframewkisanattractivemeanstocr
21、ediblyanchprivatesectinflationexpectationsbyremovingthethreatthatthemoaryauthitieswouldexploitatradeofftogenerateshttermoutputgainsattheexpenseofproducingamediumterminflationarybias.Howevertheapplicationofrulesbasedappro
22、achestomoarypolicyoverthepastcentury—thegoldstardtheBrettonWoodssystemoffixedexchangeratesmoarytargeting—haveeachbrokendowninthefaceofunfeseenshockschangesinthestructureoftheglobaleconomy.Therisefallofflexibleinflationta
23、rgetingcanbeseeninthislight.Inflationtargetingaroseasapragmaticeffttocombineelementsofrulesdiscretionbasedframewks.Becauseitrepresentsaframewkratherthanarigidsetofrulesitisdifficulttodefineitinaprecisemanner.Howeverthere
24、aresharedelementstotheinflationtargetingregimethatcanbeidentified.?Pricestabilityisexplicitlyrecognizedastheprimarygoalofmoarypolicy.?Aquantitativetargetfinflationissetfaspecificnumberofperiodsaheadinwhichmoarypolicyacti
25、onsinfluenceinflationoutcomes(usuallytwotothreeyears).?Amethodologyfinflationfecastingiscommunicatedthatlinksthepathofcurrentavailableinfmationtothepathofinflation.?Afwardlookingoperatingprocedureisdevelopedbywhichthecen
26、tralbankcommunicatestothepublichowmoarypolicyinstrumentswillbeadjustedtoachievetheinflationtargethowpolicywillrespondtoeconomicshocks.StartingwithNewZealin1989over30countriesaroundthewldmovedtodefinetheirpolicyframewksas
27、inflationtargetingregimes.Whilethecentralbanksofthethreelargestadvancedeconomies—theFederalReservetheEuropeanCentralBanktheBankofJapan—arenotinthisgroupeachofthesenoninflationtargetingcentralbanksmovedsignificantlyinthed
28、irectionofinflationtargetingoverthe1990s2000s.Eachmovedtosetanexplicitmediumterminflationtarget.FtheECBBoJthistargethasbeenenshrinedinlegislationastheprimarygoalofmoarypolicy.TheFeddiffersinmaintaininganexplicitdualmateo
29、fachievingpricestabilityfullemployment.HoweverintheyearsleadinguptotheGFCthismateincreasinglyshiftedtowardanapproachwherebyachievingpricestabilitywastheprimarymediumtermobjective—asitwasviewedasanecessaryconditiontowardi
30、nsuringfullemployment.Thisviewisclearlyexpressedina2007speechbythethenchairoftheFedBernanke.“Asyouknowthecontrolofinflationiscentraltogoodmonetarypolicy.PricestabilitywhichisonelegoftheFederalReservesdualmatefromtheCongr
31、essisagoodthinginitselffreasonsthateconomistsunderstmuchbettertodaythantheydidafewdecadesago…Inflationinjectsnoiseintothepricesystemmakeslongtermfinancialplanningmecomplexinteractsinperversewayswithimperfectlyindexedtaxa
32、ccountingrules.Intheshttomediumtermthemaintenanceofpricestabilityhelpsavoidthepatternofstopgomoarypoliciesthatwerethesourceofmuchinstabilityinoutputemploymentinthepast.Mefundamentallyexperiencesuggeststhathighpersistenti
33、nflationunderminespublicconfidenceintheeconomyinthemanagementofeconomicpolicygenerallywithpotentiallyadverseeffectsonrisktakinginvestmentotherproductiveactivitiesthataresensitivetothepublic’sassessmentsoftheprospectsffut
34、ureeconomicstability.Inthelongtermlowinflationpromotesgrowthefficiencystability—whichallelsebeingequalsupptmaximumsustainableemploymenttheotherlegofthemategiventotheFederalReservebytheCongress.”AtthesametimethattheG3hasm
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