中短期航空客運(yùn)量的組合預(yù)測應(yīng)用研究.pdf

1、華中科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文中短期航空客運(yùn)量的組合預(yù)測應(yīng)用研究姓名：章鋒申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：李昆鵬20090501II華中科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文華中科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文AbstractTheMedium&shttermfecastofairpassengertrafficisanimptantbasisofganizingairpassengertrafficanessentialguaranteefthepass

2、engertrafficenterprisetograsptrendsdemoftransptationmarketdevelopment.Howevertheairpassengertrafficsystemisverycomplex.Therearealotofinfluentialfactsthefactsareofuncertaintywhichcausegreatdifficultiesinvolumefecasting.Ac

3、cdingtothefeaturesofairpassengertrafficit’snecessarytochooseintroduceanewpredictiontechnique.Thisthesistriestoapplythecombinationfecastingtactictothemediumshttermfecastofairpassengertraffic.Atfirstthisthesisgeneralizesth

4、erelativestudiesofairpassengertrafficfecasting.ThenonthebasisofaconcreteanalysisofthefeatureofairpassengertrafficinChinaitbuildsatwostagesfecastingmodelwhichisapplicabletothefeaturesofairlinepassengertrafficinChina.First

5、thisthesishasedthetwoindividualfecasts(exponentialsmoothingmethodgraypredictionmethod)bycomparinganalyzing.Thenindertotakeuseofeachmodel’sadvantagesovercomethedefectofsinglemodelachievethepurposeofimprovingtheprecisionof

6、predictionthereliabilityoftheresultthisthesisappliescombinationfecastingtotheMedium&shttermfecastofairpassengertrafficbuildacombinationfecastingmodel.FinallyanalyzingcomparingofthedemonstrationofGuangxiairpassengertraffi

7、ctheresultsillustratesthatthesuperiityofcombinationfecastingisveryobvious.Thatisadoptingasuitableweightcombinationfecastingresultsareapparentlybetterthantheindividualpredictsresults.Inthisthesistheresearchresultscanbedir

8、ectlyapplyingtoairpassengertrafficprovidingreferencefaviationmanagementrelatedsoftware’sdevelopmentofferingsomeideasffutureresearching.Keywds:Medium&shttermfecastAirpassengertrafficExponentialsmoothingGraypredictionCombi