項(xiàng)目管理外文翻譯----erp項(xiàng)目實(shí)施成功因素和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

1、<p>　　ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施成功因素和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理</p><p>　　參考國(guó)外的一些文獻(xiàn)資料，一個(gè)成功的ERP項(xiàng)目，往往要花費(fèi)數(shù)年時(shí)間，數(shù)千萬(wàn)美元得以完成。再回頭看國(guó)內(nèi)，隨著ERP懷疑論的抬頭，價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的興起，ERP作為一種軟件供應(yīng)商的產(chǎn)品，卻有走下神壇趨勢(shì)。就連ERP界的首領(lǐng)SAP也推出了Business One產(chǎn)品，價(jià)格低于十萬(wàn)。不過(guò)，即便ERP軟件能做到免費(fèi)，或如IBM推崇的按需收費(fèi)的境界，從整個(gè)企業(yè)實(shí)

2、施的角度，考慮到人員、培訓(xùn)、維護(hù)、業(yè)務(wù)重組、二次開(kāi)發(fā)、三次、n次開(kāi)發(fā)，其費(fèi)用應(yīng)該也在數(shù)百萬(wàn)乃至千萬(wàn)人民幣的規(guī)模。這對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)而言，已是不小的數(shù)目了。</p><p>　　但是，還是有不少企業(yè)懷著美麗的夢(mèng)想，踏上ERP實(shí)施的艱辛之旅。其中又有不少項(xiàng)目以失敗告終。而對(duì)于那些最后的幸存者，是否就可以還戟入倉(cāng)，飲酒高歌呢？</p><p>　　事實(shí)上，企業(yè)在成功實(shí)施ERP項(xiàng)目后，將面對(duì)較實(shí)施前更

3、大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在未來(lái)的五到十年中，是否有一個(gè)扎實(shí)的ERP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制將決定了企業(yè)是否能在最初的ERP投資中真正獲益。</p><p>　　1998年Thomas H.Davenport在哈佛商務(wù)評(píng)論發(fā)表了名為《將企業(yè)放入企業(yè)系統(tǒng)》的文章(Putting the entERPrise into the entERPrise system)。該文系統(tǒng)地提出了企業(yè)系統(tǒng)，或稱(chēng)ERP系統(tǒng)給企業(yè)運(yùn)作帶來(lái)積極及消極的引響。同時(shí)也直

4、接提出了未來(lái)企業(yè)必須面對(duì)的一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：將整個(gè)企業(yè)放入企業(yè)系統(tǒng)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　按照美國(guó)項(xiàng)目管理協(xié)會(huì)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義，“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”是指對(duì)項(xiàng)目有利或不利的不確定因素。</p><p>　　項(xiàng)目是“為完成某一獨(dú)特的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)所做的一次性努力”，項(xiàng)目的“獨(dú)特性”決定了項(xiàng)目不可能是以與以前完全相同的方式、由與以前完全相同的人來(lái)完成的，同時(shí)，項(xiàng)目所要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)，以及項(xiàng)目可能涉及的范圍、時(shí)間及

5、成本都不可能在項(xiàng)目開(kāi)始時(shí)完全確定，因此，在項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行過(guò)程中也相應(yīng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)大量的不確定性，即項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文以下所提到的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”是指對(duì)項(xiàng)目“不利”的不確定因素。</p><p>　　對(duì)項(xiàng)目不利的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在于任何項(xiàng)目中，并往往會(huì)給項(xiàng)目的推進(jìn)和項(xiàng)目的成功帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一旦發(fā)生，它的影響是多方面的，如導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)品/服務(wù)的功能無(wú)法滿(mǎn)足客戶(hù)的需要、項(xiàng)目費(fèi)用超出預(yù)算、項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃拖延或被迫取消等，其最終體現(xiàn)為客戶(hù)滿(mǎn)意度的降低。因此，識(shí)

6、別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并采取措施應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)即風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對(duì)項(xiàng)目管理具有十分重要的意義。 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的具體內(nèi)容 </p><p>　　項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理主要分為以下幾個(gè)步驟：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、定性/定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃編制及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控。</p><p><b>　　1.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別　 </b></p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別

7、，是指識(shí)別并記錄可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目造成不利影響的因素。由于項(xiàng)目處于不斷發(fā)展變化的過(guò)程中，因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別也貫穿于整個(gè)項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的全過(guò)程,而不僅僅是項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)始階段。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別不是一次性的工作，而需要更多系統(tǒng)的、橫向的思維。幾乎所有關(guān)于項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃與信息都可能作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的依據(jù)，如項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度及成本計(jì)劃、工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目組織結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目范圍、類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目的歷史信息等。 </p><p>　　需要注意的是，并非所有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都可以通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別來(lái)進(jìn)

8、行管理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別只能發(fā)現(xiàn)已知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（如：已知項(xiàng)目組織中某一成員能力不能完全滿(mǎn)足要求）或已知未知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（known-unknown,即“事件名稱(chēng)已知”，如“客戶(hù)方人員參與力度不足”）；而某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，由于項(xiàng)目的獨(dú)特性，不可能在其發(fā)生前預(yù)知(unknown-unknown,即未知未知風(fēng)險(xiǎn))。 </p><p>　　2.定性/定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 </p><p>　　通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別過(guò)程所識(shí)別出的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)量

9、很多，但這些潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響是各不相同的?！帮L(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析”即通過(guò)分析、比較、評(píng)估等各種方式，對(duì)確定各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要性，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序并評(píng)估其對(duì)項(xiàng)目可能后果，從而使項(xiàng)目實(shí)施人員可以將主要精力集中于為數(shù)不多的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上，從而使項(xiàng)目的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到有效的控制。 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析主要可采用的方法有：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率/影響評(píng)估矩陣、敏感性分析、模擬等。在進(jìn)行上述分析時(shí)，主要關(guān)注以下幾個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素： </p>

10、<p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率：即風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件發(fā)生的可能性的百分比表示。這個(gè)數(shù)字是通過(guò)主觀判斷而獲得的，如專(zhuān)家評(píng)估、訪談或根據(jù)以前類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目的歷史信息。 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響：即風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目造成的影響大小。這種影響可能是時(shí)間上的，可能是成本上的，也可能是其他各方面的。 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值（預(yù)期值EMV）：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值=風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率×風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響，是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目造成的影響

11、的最直接評(píng)估，它綜合考慮了概率與影響兩方面的因素。 </p><p>　　3.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃編制 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的目的在于通過(guò)制定相應(yīng)的措施，來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目可能造成的威脅。最常采用的應(yīng)對(duì)威脅的幾種措施是：規(guī)避、減輕、轉(zhuǎn)移、接受。 </p><p>　　規(guī)避，即通過(guò)消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因來(lái)消除該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)； </p><p>　　

12、減輕，即通過(guò)采取措施降低“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率”或“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響”,從而達(dá)到降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的結(jié)果； </p><p>　　轉(zhuǎn)移，即將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到另一方，如購(gòu)買(mǎi)保險(xiǎn)、分包等； </p><p>　　接受，即對(duì)該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不采取措施，接受其造成的結(jié)果，或在該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生后再采取應(yīng)急計(jì)劃進(jìn)行處理。 </p><p>　　具體采用何種方式來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，取決于該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值（EMV）、擬采取應(yīng)對(duì)措施的

13、可能成本、項(xiàng)目管理人員對(duì)待風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的態(tài)度（效用函數(shù)）類(lèi)型等各方面，不可一概而論。 </p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃是針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行的；對(duì)于未知未知的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，不可能預(yù)選制定相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃或應(yīng)急計(jì)劃，因此，可以利用管理儲(chǔ)備來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)。 </p><p><b>　　4.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控 </b></p><p>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控主要包括以下幾方面的任務(wù)：　

14、 </p><p>　　1）在項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行過(guò)程中跟蹤已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、監(jiān)控殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并識(shí)別新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：隨著項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施的執(zhí)行，各種對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響因素處于不斷變化的過(guò)程中，因此，需要在整個(gè)項(xiàng)目過(guò)程中，時(shí)刻監(jiān)督風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展與變化情況，確定伴隨某些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的消失而來(lái)的新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并制定相應(yīng)的處理措施。 </p><p>　　2）保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的執(zhí)行并評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃執(zhí)行效果。評(píng)估的方法可以是項(xiàng)目周期（階

15、段）性回顧、績(jī)效評(píng)估等。 </p><p>　　3）對(duì)突發(fā)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或“接受”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)采取適當(dāng)?shù)臋?quán)變措施。 </p><p>　　通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控過(guò)程，項(xiàng)目人員持續(xù)更新項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列表，并通過(guò)重復(fù)上述各步驟保證項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)始終處于受控狀態(tài)。 </p><p>　　ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 </p><p>　　不同類(lèi)型的項(xiàng)目有不同類(lèi)型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。ERP項(xiàng)目

16、實(shí)施的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)同樣有其特殊性。以下對(duì)ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施做一簡(jiǎn)要說(shuō)明，一家之言，僅供參考。 </p><p>　　1.ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施中的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及應(yīng)對(duì)措施 </p><p>　　如前所述，“幾乎所有關(guān)于項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃與信息都可能作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的依據(jù)，如項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度及成本計(jì)劃、工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目組織結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目范圍、類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目的歷史信息等?！痹贓RP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別過(guò)程中，可以以項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃為線索

17、，識(shí)別項(xiàng)目在各方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 </p><p>　　實(shí)施過(guò)程中，應(yīng)特別關(guān)注以下幾方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)： </p><p>　　1)項(xiàng)目范圍的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) </p><p>　　項(xiàng)目采購(gòu)管理通常有三種合同方式，即：固定價(jià)或總價(jià)合同、成本報(bào)銷(xiāo)（加獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)）合同、單價(jià)合同。通常不確定性越大、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大的項(xiàng)目，越趨向于采用靠后的合同方式。這也是國(guó)外及國(guó)內(nèi)部分ERP供應(yīng)商在實(shí)施服務(wù)中采用按人天提

18、供服務(wù)并收取費(fèi)用的原因。但采用這種方式，買(mǎi)方（即客戶(hù)）存在較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此，國(guó)內(nèi)很多客戶(hù)傾向于以固定價(jià)格訂立實(shí)施服務(wù)合同。而這種合同方式，則對(duì)于賣(mài)方（即顧問(wèn)方）存在較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在此前提下，若項(xiàng)目范圍定義不清晰，可能導(dǎo)致買(mǎi)賣(mài)雙方對(duì)項(xiàng)目范圍的認(rèn)知產(chǎn)生分歧：賣(mài)方希望盡量縮小實(shí)施范圍，以最小的成本結(jié)束項(xiàng)目；而買(mǎi)方則希望將ERP系統(tǒng)的所有功能盡可能多的實(shí)施，以固定的價(jià)格獲得最大的收益。若雙方的分歧較大，不能達(dá)成一致，則必然會(huì)造成效率低下，相互扯皮。

19、 </p><p>　　因此，ERP項(xiàng)目合同中，應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施范圍做盡可能清晰的界定，切不可停留在“實(shí)施財(cái)務(wù)模塊”或是“實(shí)施應(yīng)收、應(yīng)付、總賬管理”之類(lèi)的層面上。寧愿多花一些時(shí)間在項(xiàng)目實(shí)施前的范圍界定工作上，也不要在項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程中，面對(duì)ERP繁多的功能，實(shí)施方與用戶(hù)方爭(zhēng)執(zhí)不下，或被迫讓步，投入更大的精力于項(xiàng)目中，而導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目不能按時(shí)完成。 </p><p>　　2）項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) <

20、;/p><p>　　關(guān)于ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的周期，目前在宣傳上有強(qiáng)調(diào)“快速”的傾向。但ERP項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度的控制絕非易事，不僅取決于顧問(wèn)公司的能力，同時(shí)也在很大程度上受到客戶(hù)方對(duì)ERP期望值是否合理、對(duì)范圍控制是否有效、對(duì)項(xiàng)目投入（包括人員時(shí)間的投入和資金等的投入）是否足夠等方面的影響。 </p><p>　　由神州數(shù)碼提供ERP系統(tǒng)并負(fù)責(zé)實(shí)施的昆山世同金屬，在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)上線成功，原因之一就是易飛ER

21、P實(shí)施小組完整成熟的導(dǎo)入機(jī)制及顧問(wèn)人員卓越的素質(zhì)，有效順利地協(xié)助了世同金屬的上線工作。從上線開(kāi)始便有專(zhuān)業(yè)顧問(wèn)負(fù)責(zé)整個(gè)導(dǎo)入實(shí)施的計(jì)劃，長(zhǎng)期積累的行業(yè)知識(shí)及管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)也提升了整個(gè)ERP的運(yùn)作水平，妥善處理了上線工作中的問(wèn)題。用戶(hù)對(duì)項(xiàng)目分階段實(shí)施有強(qiáng)烈的認(rèn)同，在第一階段僅強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)基本功能的實(shí)現(xiàn)，而將大量的工作留到上線后或持續(xù)改進(jìn)過(guò)程中。 </p><p>　　而實(shí)際操作中，并非所有用戶(hù)對(duì)ERP實(shí)施都有這種理解與認(rèn)同，因此

22、，在項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃時(shí)，一味在項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃時(shí)求快，甚或是刻意追求某個(gè)具有特殊意義的日期作為項(xiàng)目里程碑，將對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制造成很大壓力。 </p><p>　　事實(shí)上，很多項(xiàng)目的失敗，正是起因于項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度出現(xiàn)拖延，而導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)士氣低落，效率低下。因此，ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的時(shí)間管理，需要充分考慮各種潛在因素，適當(dāng)留有余地；任務(wù)分解詳細(xì)度適中，便于考核；在執(zhí)行過(guò)程中，應(yīng)強(qiáng)調(diào)項(xiàng)目按進(jìn)度執(zhí)行的重要性，在考慮任何問(wèn)題時(shí)，都要將保持進(jìn)

23、度作為先決條件；同時(shí)，合理利用趕工及快速跟進(jìn)等方法，充分利用資源。 </p><p>　　3）項(xiàng)目人力資源的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) </p><p>　　人力資源是ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程中最為關(guān)鍵的資源。保證合適的人，以足夠的精力參與到項(xiàng)目中來(lái)，是項(xiàng)目成功實(shí)施的基本保證。 </p><p>　　ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施中存在各種角色，對(duì)各種角色應(yīng)具備的素質(zhì)，我們?cè)诖瞬辉儋樖?。要降低?xiàng)目的人力

24、資源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就要保證進(jìn)入到項(xiàng)目中并承擔(dān)角色的各類(lèi)項(xiàng)目干系人滿(mǎn)足項(xiàng)目要求。因此，實(shí)施雙方應(yīng)對(duì)參與人員進(jìn)行認(rèn)真的評(píng)估，這種評(píng)估應(yīng)該是雙方面的，不僅是用戶(hù)對(duì)咨詢(xún)顧問(wèn)的評(píng)估，也應(yīng)包括咨詢(xún)公司對(duì)參與項(xiàng)目的用戶(hù)方成員（在國(guó)內(nèi)目前的環(huán)境下，主要是指關(guān)鍵用戶(hù)）的評(píng)估。同時(shí)，應(yīng)保證項(xiàng)目人員對(duì)項(xiàng)目的投入程度。應(yīng)將參與ERP項(xiàng)目人員的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)估與ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的狀況相關(guān)聯(lián)，明確ERP項(xiàng)目是在該階段項(xiàng)目相關(guān)人員最重要的本職工作；制定適當(dāng)?shù)莫?jiǎng)懲措施；在企業(yè)中建立“一

25、把手工程”的思想，層層“一把手”，即各級(jí)負(fù)責(zé)人針對(duì)ERP實(shí)施向下行使全權(quán)、對(duì)上擔(dān)負(fù)全責(zé)，將一把手從個(gè)體概念延伸到有機(jī)結(jié)合的群體概念。 </p><p>　　4）對(duì)ERP認(rèn)識(shí)不正確的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) </p><p>　　有的企業(yè)把ERP視為企業(yè)管理的靈丹妙藥，認(rèn)為既然ERP“功能強(qiáng)大”，只要上了ERP，企業(yè)的所有問(wèn)題便迎刃而解，或者以為企業(yè)的所有流程都可以納入到ERP中來(lái)；還有的人簡(jiǎn)單的將ERP視

26、為當(dāng)前業(yè)務(wù)流程的電子化。 </p><p>　　要防范或減輕這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，需要對(duì)用戶(hù)進(jìn)行大量的培訓(xùn)：ERP的由來(lái)，ERP的功能，實(shí)施ERP的目的與期望等等，盡可能在用戶(hù)產(chǎn)生“ERP不能滿(mǎn)足我的需求和期望”這種想法之前，讓用戶(hù)知道“現(xiàn)階段對(duì)ERP合理的需求期望是什么”。 </p><p>　　2．ERP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控 </p><p>　　可以采取以下措施對(duì)E

27、RP項(xiàng)目實(shí)施中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行監(jiān)控，以防止危及項(xiàng)目成敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生。 </p><p>　　1)建立并及時(shí)更新項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列表及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序。項(xiàng)目管理人員應(yīng)隨時(shí)關(guān)注與關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)因素的變化情況，及時(shí)決定何時(shí)、采用何種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施。 </p><p>　　2）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)審計(jì)：隨時(shí)關(guān)注風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施（規(guī)避、減輕、轉(zhuǎn)移）實(shí)施的效果，對(duì)殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估。 </p><p>　　3）建立報(bào)

28、告機(jī)制，及時(shí)將項(xiàng)目中存在的問(wèn)題反映到項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理或項(xiàng)目管理層。 </p><p>　　4）定期召集項(xiàng)目干系人召開(kāi)項(xiàng)目會(huì)議，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況進(jìn)行評(píng)估，并通過(guò)各方面對(duì)項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的反應(yīng)來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 </p><p>　　5）更新相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別檢查表，以利于今后類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施。 </p><p>　　6）引入第三方咨詢(xún)，定期對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行質(zhì)量檢查，以防范大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 </p

29、><p>　　總之,實(shí)施信息化，企業(yè)就要面對(duì)巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，有時(shí)甚至是將自己的生死交到了信息化手上。但如果不實(shí)施信息化，企業(yè)就要被同行所超越，進(jìn)而湮沒(méi)在全球化的浪潮中，這是每一家企業(yè)都不愿意看到的。可看看常見(jiàn)的資料，都是教你如何去規(guī)避信息化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而沒(méi)有人愿意直面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這不能不說(shuō)是信息化的缺失。如果我們的企業(yè)、廠商能夠更加開(kāi)明些，丟掉那所謂的面子問(wèn)題，將他們面對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與大眾共享，相信信息化的失敗率絕對(duì)要比現(xiàn)在少得多。&

30、lt;/p><p><b>　　科技外文文獻(xiàn)</b></p><p>　　Discussing about the successful factors of</p><p>　　ERP projects implementation and the risk management</p><p>　　Refers to t

31、he overseas some literature material, a successful ERP project, often needs to spend several year times, number thousands of US dollars can complete. Again turns head looks at the home, along with ERP skepticisms gaining

32、 ground, price war starting, ERP took one kind of software supplier's product, has actually goes down the god world tendency. ERP leader SAP also promoted Business the One product, the price has been lower than 100,0

33、00.Even if the ERP software can achieve free, or like</p><p>　　But, some many enterprises harbor the beautiful dream, steps the ERP implementation the difficult travel. In which also has many projects to be

34、defeated comes to an end. But regarding these final survivors, whether can the halberd be also put in storage, drinks wine to sing loudly? In fact, the enterprise implements the ERP project after the success will face im

35、plements a bigger risk. In future five to ten years in, some solid ERP risk management mechanism had decided whether the enterprise can </p><p>　　The project is "for completes the disposable endeavor wh

36、ich some unique product or the service station do", the project "the distinctive quality" had decided the project not impossible was by with the before identical way, simultaneously, the project which comp

37、leted by and the before identical person must create the product or the service, as well as the project possibly involved the scope, the time and the cost all not impossible started when the project completely to determi

38、ne, therefore, carr</p><p>　?、?Risk management concrete content 　　</p><p>　　The project risk management mainly divides into following several steps: The risk recognition, the qualitative/quota

39、 risk analysis, the risk should to plan the establishment and the risk monitoring. 　　</p><p>　　1.risk recognitions　 </p><p>　　The risk recognition, is refers distinguishes and records possibl

40、y has the adverse effect to the project the factor. Because the project is in develops in unceasingly the change process, therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project implementation entire pro

41、cess, but is not merely the project initial stage. The risk recognition is not the disposable work, but need more systems, crosswise thought. Possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly </

42、p><p>　　2.qualitative/quota risk analysis 　　</p><p>　　The latent risk quantity distinguishes which through the risk recognition process are very many, but these latent risks to the project the i

43、nfluence are various. "The risk analysis" namely through the analysis, the comparison, the appraisal and so on each way, to determined various risks the importance, sorts to the risk and appraises it to the pro

44、ject possible consequence, thus causes the project to implement the personnel to be possible to concentrate the main energy in the few in number main </p><p>　　The risk analysis mainly may use the method inc

45、ludes: Risk probability/influence appraisal matrix, sensitive analysis, simulation and so on. When carries on the above analysis, mainly pays attention to following several risk factor: 　　</p><p>　　Risk pr

46、obability: Namely the risk event occurs possible percentage expression. This numeral is, like the expert who obtains through the subjective judgment appraises, the interview or the basis before similar project historical

47、 information. 　　</p><p>　　Risk influence: Namely the risk has possibly the influence size which creates to the project. This kind of influence is possibly in the time, possibly is in the cost, also is poss

48、ibly other various aspects. 　　</p><p>　　Risk value (required value EMV): The risk value = risk probability * risk influence, is to the risk the influence most direct appraisal which creates to the project,

49、 its overall evaluation probability with has affected two aspects the factors. 　　</p><p>　　3.risks should plan the establishment 　　</p><p>　　The risk should lie in to the plan goal through

50、the formulation corresponding measure, comes to be supposed to the risk the threat which possibly creates to the project.Most often uses should to threat several measures be: The circumvention, reduces, the shift, accept

51、s. 　　</p><p>　　The circumvention, namely eliminates this risk through the elimination risk origin; 　　</p><p>　　Reduces, namely through takes the measure to reduce "the risk probability&

52、quot; or "the risk influence", thus achieved reduces the risk value the result; 　　</p><p>　　The shift, soon the risk shifts to another side, like purchase insurance, sub package and so on; </p&

53、gt;<p>　　Accepts, namely does not take the measure to this risk, accepts result which it creates, or occurs after this risk uses the contingency plan to carry on processing again. 　　Selects what method to come s

54、pecifically to be supposed to some risk, is decided in this risk value (EMV), plans to adopt should to the measure possible cost, the project management personnel treat the risk the manner (utility function) the type and

55、 so on various aspects, cannot be generally spoken. 　　</p><p>　　The risk should be aims at the risk to the plan which distinguishes to carry on; Regarding the unknown risk, not impossible to choose in adva

56、nce the formulation corresponding to be supposed to plan or the contingency plan, therefore, may stockpile using the management should be right. 　　</p><p>　　4.risk monitoring 　</p><p>　　The

57、 risk monitoring mainly includes following several aspects the duty:　 　　</p><p>　　1) Carrying on in the process in the project to track has distinguished the risk, the monitoring remaining risk and distin

58、guishes the new risk: Along with the project implementation as well as the risk should to the measure execution, each kind the influence factor be in the process to the project which changes unceasingly, therefore, needs

59、 in the entire project process, the time surveillance risk development and the change situation, determined follows the new risk which certain risks vanishin</p><p>　　2) Guaranteed the risk should to the pl

60、an execution and appraised the risk should to plan carry out the effect. The appraisal method may be the project cycle (stage) the natural review, the achievements appraisal and so on. 　　</p><p>　　3) "

61、;accepts" to the sharp-edged risk the risk takes the suitable flexible measure. Through the risk monitoring process, the project personnel renews the project risk tabulation continually, and through the repetition a

62、bove various steps guaranteed the project risk is at the controlled condition throughout. 　　</p><p>　?、?ERP project implementation risk management 　　</p><p>　　The different type project has

63、the different type risk. The ERP project implementation risk has its particularity similarly. The following gives a briefing to in the ERP project implementation process risk management measure, the single opinion, only

64、supplies the reference. 　　</p><p>　　1.ERP project implementation main risk and should to the measure 　　</p><p>　　As mentioned above, "possesses nearly about the project plan and the in

65、formation all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost plan, work decomposition structure, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and

66、so on." In the ERP project risk recognition process, may take the project plan as the clue, the recognition project in various aspects risk. In the implementation process, should pay attention to following sev</p

67、><p>　　1)project scope risk 　　</p><p>　　The project purchase management usually has three contract ways, namely: The solid fixed price or the total price contract, the cost reimburse (add reward

68、) the contract, the unit price contract. The usual uncertainty is bigger, a risk bigger project, more tends to in using depends on after the contract way. This also is overseas and the domestic part ERP supplier uses in

69、the implementation service according to the human day provides serves and charges the fee the reason. But selects this method,</p><p>　　Therefore, in the ERP project contract, should make as far as possible

70、the clear limits to the project implementation scope, cuts cannot pause in "the implementation finance module" perhaps "the implementation receivable, the manipulation, the general ledger management"

71、and so on in stratification plane.</p><p>　　Rather multi-flowered some time before in project implementation scope limits work, also do not have in the project implementation process, facing ERP many functio

72、ns, the implementation side and the user side is unyielding, or the forced concessions, invests a bigger energy in the project, but causes the project not to be able to complete on time. 　　</p><p>　　2)pro

73、ject progress risk 　　</p><p>　　About the ERP project implementation cycle, at present has emphasizes "fast" the tendency in the propaganda. But ERP project progress control certainly not easy mat

74、ter, not only is decided by consultant firm's ability, simultaneously also to a great extent receives the customer side to the ERP expected value whether reasonable, to the scope controls whether effective, to projec

75、t investment (including personnel time investment and fund and so on investment) whether enough and so on aspect influen</p><p>　　Provides elder brother Shan Shitong by the divine land numerical code who the

76、 ERP system and is responsible to implement the metal, in a short time makes something a matter of political line successfully, one of reasons is easy to fly the ERP implementation group integrity mature to induct the me

77、chanism and consultant personnel's remarkable quality, smoothly has assisted the world effectively with the metal political line work. Starts from the political line then to have special consultant to be</p>&

78、lt;p>　　But in the actual operation, by no means all users all have this kind of understanding and the approval to the ERP implementation, therefore, in project progress plan time, constantly when project progress plan

79、 strives for quickly, even is pursues some to have the special significance date sedulously to take the project milestone, will create the very tremendous pressure to the project progress control. In fact, the very many

80、project defeat, is precisely is attributed to the project progress to </p><p>　　3) project human resources risk 　　</p><p>　　The human resources are in the ERP project implementation process th

81、e most essential resources. Guaranteed the appropriate person, participates in the project by the enough energy, is the project success implementation basic guarantee. 　　</p><p>　　In the ERP project implem

82、entation has each kind of role, should have the quality to each kind of role, we no longer give unnecessary detail in this. Must reduce the project the human resources risk, must guarantee enters and undertakes role each

83、 kind of project to the project in to do is the human satisfies the project request. Therefore, implements both sides to be supposed to participate in the personnel carrying on the earnest appraisal, this kind of apprais

84、al should be the bilateral surface,</p><p>　　4) The risk that people don't understand ERP correctly 　　</p><p>　　Some enterprises regard as ERP the business management the panacea, thought si

85、nce ERP "the function is formidable", so long as on ERP, enterprise's all questions have then been easily solved, or thought enterprise's all flows all may integrate to ERP in; Also some people simple r

86、egard as ERP the current service flow the computerization. 　　</p><p>　　Must guard against or reduce this kind of risk, needs to carry on massive training to the user: The ERP origin, the ERP function, impl

87、ements ERP goal and expectation and so on, "ERP cannot meet my need in the user productions and expect" as far as possible in front of this idea, lets the user know "the present stage to the ERP reasonable

88、 demand expectation is any". 　　</p><p>　　2.ERP project implementation risk monitoring 　　</p><p>　　May take following measure to carry on the monitoring to in the ERP project implementa

89、tion risk, prevented endangers the project success or failure the risk occurrence. 　　</p><p>　　1) Establishes and the prompt renewal project risk tabulation and risk sorting. The project management personn

90、el should as necessary pay attention to and the essential risk correlation factor change situation, decided promptly when, uses what kind of risk to be supposed to the measure. 　　</p><p>　　2) the risk shou

91、ld to audit: Pays attention to the risk to be supposed as necessary to the measure (circumvention, to reduce the effect which, shift) implements, carries on the appraisal to the remaining risk. 　　</p><p>　

92、　3) establishes the report mechanism, the question which has the project in reflects promptly to project manager or the project management level. 　　</p><p>　　4) convenes the project to do is regularly the

93、human holds the project conference, carries on the appraisal to the risk condition, and discovers the new risk through all quarters facing the project implementation response. 　　</p><p>　　5) renews the cor

94、relation database like risk recognition check table, will favor the next similar project the implementation. 　　</p><p>　　6) Introduces the third party consultation, regularly carries on the quality testing

95、to the project, guards against the big risk. </p><p>　　The implementation informational, the enterprise needs to face the huge risk, sometimes even has handed over own life and death in the informationa

96、l. But if does not implement the informational, the enterprise needs to travel together surmounted, then annihilation in globalization tide, this is each enterprise all is not willing to see.</p><p>　　All in

97、 all, ERP's best hope for demonstrating value is as a sort of battering ram for improving the way your company takes a customer order and processes it into an invoice and revenue-otherwise known as the order fulfillm

98、ent process. That is why ERP is often referred to as back-office software. It doesn't handle the up-front selling process (although most ERP vendors have recently developed CRM software to do this); rather, ERP takes

99、 a customer order and provides a software road map for automat</p><p>　　If our enterprise, the manufacturer can more enlightened, discard that so-called point of honor, shares them facing the risk time exper