天津房地產市場泡沫預警及政策研究.pdf

1、天津財經大學碩士學位論文天津房地產市場泡沫預警及政策研究姓名：石巖申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：產業(yè)經濟學指導教師：溫孝卿20080501AbstractInrecentyears，alongwiththeeconomicalfastdevelopment，ourcountry’Srealestateindustryalsoenteredanotherroundboomingcycle，maintainedcontinuouslythehig

2、hspeedgrowthinmanyyears，andhaveformedclosecontactingwithmorethan40industriesithavebecameoneofbiggestindustrialwhichhavethepowertoaffectthenationaleconomyButtherealestateindustryinthefastgrowthtimeoftenbringbubbles，thiski

3、ndofbubblewillbedisillusionedduringtherecessionwillhavethedeathblowtothenationaleconomyInviewofthis，establishestherealestatebubbleearlywarningsystemtoguardagainsttherisktohavetheimportanttheoryandthepracticalsignificance

4、Thisarticleisbasedonthetheoryofearly—warningtheoryofmacroeconomicandhasfurtherdiscussionaboutcurrentmethodologiesofearly—warningsystemofrealestateCombiningthecharacteristicsoftheperiodicallyfluctuationofrealestatemarket，

5、itresearchedtobuildthestructureofearly—warningmodelofrealestateThisarticletakesComprehensivesimulationmethodasmainlinethatearlywarningsystemdesignUsingprincipalcomponentanalysiswegettheweightandcontributerateofdifferenti

6、ndexDifferentearlywarningindexcomprehendthecomprehensiveearlywarmingindexofRealEstateThisarticlealsotakesindexsmoothmethodtoforecastdifferentearly—warningindexThearticleutilizesthenewconstructiontheearlywarningmodeltocar

7、ryontheempiricalanalysistotherealestatemarketofTianjin，theresultdemonstratethedevelopmentofTianjinrealestatemarketishealthButin2006，ithitthebasicnormalupperlimitIfthegovernmentdoesnotimplementsuitablepolicytherealestatem

8、arketofTianjinwillhavetheoverheatedriskTherefore，thearticleadopttheindustrialpolicytheoryastheinstruction，proposedthecorrespondingindustrialpolicysuggestionpreventsandreducesthiskindofharmTheestablishmentofrealestateearl

9、y—warningsystemdiscussioninthepaperwillprovidesamoreclearviewforpeopletounderstandtheworkingmechanismofearly—warningsystem，andisofgreatrealisticandtheoreticalsignificanceofthepracticeinrealestatemarketKeywords：themarketo