宏觀2019年度策略報(bào)告&請(qǐng)回答·2019系列之四來者猶可追

1、：證監(jiān)許可（20前言.......................................................................................................................................................................5一、民企之困的核心在哪里？.............................

2、............................................................................................5（一）背景：“穩(wěn)民企”成為“穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)”、“穩(wěn)就業(yè)”、“立信心”的著力點(diǎn)....................................5（二）推演：“民企之困”的根源在小民企經(jīng)營(yíng)受到小國(guó)企的擠壓...........................

3、............6（三）猜想：實(shí)體經(jīng)營(yíng)端競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局不改善，民營(yíng)企業(yè)信用利差高位難見實(shí)質(zhì)緩解.........................9二、房地產(chǎn)政策是否會(huì)放松？.......................................................................................................................10（一）背景：托底經(jīng)濟(jì)的可

4、選政策猜想之一........................................................10（二）推演：從增量房時(shí)代逐步到存量房時(shí)代，地產(chǎn)投資回歸中長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)..............................10（三）猜想：自下而上、“長(zhǎng)短”切換的調(diào)控策略調(diào)整................................................12三、基建的“獨(dú)”木能否支？....

5、.......................................................................................................................13（一）背景：預(yù)期中的企穩(wěn)回升能在多少程度上對(duì)沖經(jīng)濟(jì)下行？......................................13（二）推演：高債務(wù)依賴性、高杠桿屬性是制約基建回升空間的關(guān)鍵.

6、.................................13（三）猜想：“地方政府官員債務(wù)問責(zé)”是否軟化是觀測(cè)和決定基建回升幅度的根本......................15四、通脹會(huì)掣肘貨幣政策嗎？...............................................................................................................

7、........16（一）背景：“豬”“油”漲價(jià)帶來的通脹預(yù)期升溫.....................................................16（二）推演：豬周期提前啟動(dòng)，需求向下、通脹無憂................................................16（三）猜想：中上游對(duì)下游利潤(rùn)的擠壓緩釋........................................

8、................18五、是否會(huì)降息？.........................................................................................................................................19（一）背景：對(duì)貨幣寬松進(jìn)一步加碼的預(yù)期升溫..................................

9、..................19（二）推演：是否降息取決于政策利弊的權(quán)衡取舍..................................................19（三）猜想：美國(guó)貨幣周期提前結(jié)束與經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期回落或是降息的敲門石..............................20六、2019年是經(jīng)濟(jì)下行慣性與政策韌性之間的博弈......................................

10、................................................20（一）增長(zhǎng)：總需求下行壓力加大，我們預(yù)計(jì)實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)6.2%.........................................................................21（二）基調(diào)：2019年在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)的雙約束下重心將調(diào)整，由破轉(zhuǎn)立，以降輔立，立是核心，基建是著力點(diǎn).............

11、...............................................................................21風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.......................................................................................................................................

12、.......................21目錄：證監(jiān)許可（20圖表33生豬存欄同比領(lǐng)先出欄同比10個(gè)月..........................................................17圖表34疫情引起存欄低點(diǎn)的10個(gè)月后，豬價(jià)再上漲..................................................17圖表352019年翹尾新漲價(jià)推升通脹中樞.........

13、..................................................17圖表36“環(huán)比外推法”得到的2019年通脹節(jié)奏......................................................18圖表37美國(guó)各分位段家庭收入差距（按中位數(shù)比較）.................................................18圖表38高凈值人群可投資產(chǎn)與

14、居民可支配收入增速...................................................18圖表39降息對(duì)于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的邏輯圖.............................................................19圖表40地方政府隱性債務(wù)規(guī)模估算.............................................................

15、....19圖表41降息與企業(yè)融資環(huán)境指數(shù)...................................................................19圖表42基準(zhǔn)利率與住房貸款加權(quán)平均利率...........................................................20圖表43利率走廊機(jī)制........................................