傳媒行業(yè)2019年中期策略報(bào)告與政策效應(yīng)共振，中長(zhǎng)期迎接5g紅利

1、敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)重要聲明目錄目錄................................................................................................................................................3圖表目錄.......................................................

2、..................................................................................41.歷史行情回顧.................................................................................................................................

3、.....................61.1市場(chǎng)行情回顧：邁過(guò)3年“至暗時(shí)刻”，板塊估值處低位...................................61.1.1年初至今，傳媒板塊收益率弱于大盤(pán)................................................................................................61.1.2板塊估值依然處歷史低位

4、，估值水平位居各行業(yè)中上游............................................................61.1.3市場(chǎng)龍頭偏好持續(xù)，細(xì)分龍頭相對(duì)獲得超額收益..........................................................................71.2行業(yè)整體業(yè)績(jī)依然承壓，出版、新媒體增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健.....................

5、....................81.32018年傳媒商譽(yù)減值率26.13%，出版、有線(xiàn)與新媒體內(nèi)生發(fā)展為主........................92.行業(yè)基本面梳理及變化.............................................................................................................................

6、.......102.1人均教育與文娛支出Q1增長(zhǎng)16.7%，近3季度增速邊際改善顯著.........................102.2細(xì)分行業(yè)：出版穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)，廣電新媒體爆發(fā)，手游有望恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)..........................112.2.1出版發(fā)行行業(yè)：增速邊際下滑維持正向增長(zhǎng)，現(xiàn)金充裕與股息率業(yè)內(nèi)居前.....................112.2.2電影行業(yè)：H1票房下滑2.7%，觀影人次增長(zhǎng)14%量

7、價(jià)背離趨勢(shì)明顯............................112.2.3廣電新媒體：大屏媒體收入量?jī)r(jià)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，以IPTV和OTT為代表的電視新媒體增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁122.2.4廣告行業(yè)：重人力資本型特征愈加明顯，頭部效應(yīng)與長(zhǎng)尾效應(yīng)并存..................................132.2.5電視劇行業(yè)：政策強(qiáng)化監(jiān)管，供給積壓，板塊依然面臨壓力..................................

8、..............142.2.6游戲行業(yè)：版號(hào)放開(kāi)“吃雞”變現(xiàn)有望帶動(dòng)手游增長(zhǎng)修復(fù)，龍頭效應(yīng)依然顯著..............142.3關(guān)注政策導(dǎo)向，5G商用迎接新一輪紅利...............................................162.3.1政策監(jiān)管重視內(nèi)容與規(guī)范管理，媒體融合貫穿產(chǎn)業(yè)....................................................

9、..............162.3.25G時(shí)代漸近，新一輪技術(shù)紅利蓄勢(shì)待發(fā).......................................................................................172.4小結(jié)：與政策效應(yīng)共振，中長(zhǎng)期迎接5G紅利............................................183.至上而下看好媒體融合，國(guó)有媒體企業(yè)迎成長(zhǎng)機(jī)

10、遇.......................................................................................193.1國(guó)家意志，政策確定性最高的傳媒細(xì)分領(lǐng)域............................................193.2重點(diǎn)看好新媒體&出版成長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì).............................................

11、..........203.2.1新媒體：看好IPTV高速成長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)國(guó)有視頻平臺(tái)......................................................................203.2.2出版發(fā)行：行業(yè)維持10%左右穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)，關(guān)注基本面扎實(shí)邊際改善中信出版IPO帶來(lái)板塊估值催化...........................................................

12、......................................................................................223.3投資邏輯：抓政策紅利主線(xiàn)，把握多維度融媒體領(lǐng)域國(guó)企成長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì).........................244.教育：與政策共振，與剛性?xún)?yōu)質(zhì)賽道共舞.....................................................

13、................................................244.1行情回顧：教育板塊大幅波動(dòng)，標(biāo)的估值整體下滑.......................................244.2細(xì)分板塊：至上而下看好職業(yè)教育和教育信息化........................................274.3投資邏輯：關(guān)注具備政策紅利的職教&信息化，長(zhǎng)期看好K12培訓(xùn).....

14、....................285.游戲：政策影響消化，靜待5G催化板塊成長(zhǎng)............................................................................................295.1版號(hào)通道開(kāi)啟行業(yè)邊際改善，審批趨嚴(yán)，精品游戲方為突破口.............................295.2游戲規(guī)模增速放緩，行業(yè)集中度提升呈現(xiàn)

15、結(jié)構(gòu)性機(jī)會(huì).....................................295.35G高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)將為游戲行業(yè)帶來(lái)新機(jī)遇，游戲大廠入局云游戲..............................315.4投資邏輯：板塊估值回調(diào)充分，關(guān)注二線(xiàn)龍頭確定性?xún)r(jià)值................................326.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示..............................................

16、...............................................................................................................33敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)重要聲明圖表45.教育行業(yè)2019年漲幅前15名標(biāo)的...............................................25圖表46.細(xì)分龍頭標(biāo)的估值享有溢價(jià).......

17、..............................................26圖表47.20132018教育行業(yè)對(duì)賭業(yè)績(jī)承諾完成率..........................................26圖表48.20132018教育細(xì)分行業(yè)對(duì)率完成情況............................................26圖表49.2018年教育行業(yè)對(duì)賭業(yè)績(jī)未實(shí)現(xiàn)子行業(yè)分布.....

18、..................................27圖表50.核心標(biāo)的估值表...............................................................28圖表51.2018年12月之后獲版號(hào)游戲數(shù)量................................................29圖表52.部分大游戲廠商獲版號(hào)游戲一覽................

19、.................................29圖表53.中國(guó)游戲市場(chǎng)實(shí)際銷(xiāo)售收入.....................................................30圖表54.中國(guó)游戲用戶(hù)規(guī)模.............................................................30圖表55.營(yíng)收進(jìn)入全球前25的中國(guó)游戲公司排名情況（20152018）..

20、........................31圖表56.2015年IOS暢銷(xiāo)榜前50游戲廠商分布............................................31圖表57.2019年IOS暢銷(xiāo)榜前50游戲廠商分布............................................31圖表58.部分游戲用戶(hù)流失原因占比...................................