天津市商品住宅需求量預(yù)測(cè)研究.pdf

1、分類(lèi)編兮：  1丫 1位代丨 i ' i:10065密 級(jí) ：  ' J：092080 10研 究 生 學(xué)位 論文論文題 目：天津市商 品住宅需求量預(yù)測(cè)研 究學(xué) 生 姓 名：李沫 屮請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別： 理學(xué)碩士申請(qǐng)專(zhuān)業(yè)名稱(chēng) ： 人文地理研 究 方 向：  城 鄉(xiāng)土地利 用與地 產(chǎn)評(píng)估指導(dǎo)教師姓名 ：  段治 ? 燕 專(zhuān)業(yè)技術(shù)職稱(chēng) ： 副教授提 交 論 文 H 期 : 2 0 12 年 5 月 18 日A

2、 b str a c tT oday,how t o m ake t he housi ng pri ces steady i n order t o l etm o stpeopl e h ave aroom t o l i ve or can buy a l i vi ng ho use,becam e t he focus of our governm ent' s w orkaft er m any ti m

3、 es of ups and dow ns f l uct uat i on i n C hi na' s housi ng pri ces.T he f orecastof com m ercialhou si ng dem and i s notonl y t he basi s of t h e st udy of t he relat i on shi pb et w een suppl y and de

4、m an d of com m erci alhousi ng,butal so t he dat a base ofgovernm entbalanci ng dom esti c suppl y of goods.T he p aper analyzed t he i nfl uen ci ngfact ors on t he dem and for com m erci alhousi ng,and t hen cho

5、se t he key factors to bui lda m ul t i pl e l i near regressi on m odel.T he st udy resul t s are:t he currentcom m erci alresi dentialsales price ups for every 1% ,t hen com m erci alresi denti alarea i ncreased

6、 by2 .12% ;t he num ber of h ousehol d up s for every 1% ,t hen com m erci alresi dentialareai n creased b y 15 18. 7% ;t he pri ce earni ngs rati o ups for every 1% ,t h en sal es ofcom m erci alresi denti alarea dedu

7、ct s by 2399. 5% ;urban savi ngs deposi ts up for every1% ,t hen sales of com m erci alresi dent i alarea w i llbe reduced by 18. 7% .B ased on t h eforecastof t h e m ajor factors,t he p aper cal cul ated out

8、t hatth e T i anji n ' s sal es area from14 . 6 147 m i l l i on square m et ers i n 2009 w i l lsharpl y i ncrease t o 20, 98 1, 400 squarem et ers i n 20 14.T he pap er' s struct ure i s as fol l ow s:T

9、he T i anji n ' s com m erci alhousi ng m arketi s t he paper' s st u dy backgro und .F i rst l y,t he papers expounded t he background and si gni fi cance of t hi s research.A tt hesam e t i m e,t he pape

10、r com prehensi vel y el aborated t he research and l i terat ure fr omdom est i c and i nternat i onaland t h e com m ercialresi dent ialand com m ercialhou si ngdem and t heory,l ai d t h e foundati on for t he paper

11、9; s research.Secondl y,t he p aperanal yzed t he vari ous relevantfact ors of af fect i ng t he dem and f or com m erci alhou si ngm arket ,and usi ng correl at i on anal ysi s m et hod t o analyze and eval uat e t

12、 he aboveeconom i c fact ors and non-econom i c factors af ter st udyi ng t he developm entprocess,t he devel opm entt rend,t he devel opm entst at us and t he m ain feat ures of C hi na' s realestate.A ccordi ng to

13、 t he rel evance val ue bet w een t he fact ors and t he depen dentvari abl e,t he paper fi nd outt he key fact ors of com m erci alresi denti ali n T i anji n .T henby est abl i shi ng t he m ul ti pl e regressi on ana