2019年6月份宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和大類資產(chǎn)配置策略配置觀點(diǎn)，市場(chǎng)避險(xiǎn)情緒攀升，增加債券配比

1、目錄目錄1.宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)51.1國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)：經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)回落，經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力猶存............................................................................................................51.1.1經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)能持續(xù)放緩，下行壓力增強(qiáng).........................................................

2、................................................................51.1.2經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣度：仍處榮枯線之上，但市場(chǎng)需求延續(xù)疲軟.....................................................................................61.1.3貨幣政策：4月社融規(guī)模整體回落.....................

3、...................................................................................................61.1.4通脹：CPI環(huán)比由降轉(zhuǎn)漲，同比漲幅略有擴(kuò)大..............................................................................................

4、.....71.2海外經(jīng)濟(jì)：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，處于加速見頂區(qū)間...................................................................................................81.2.1美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩.......................................................................

5、...........................................................81.2.2景氣度：制造業(yè)指數(shù)創(chuàng)新低......................................................................................................................................91.2.3就業(yè)：

6、4月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人口超預(yù)期，失業(yè)率創(chuàng)新低...............................................................................................91.2.4信心指數(shù)：消費(fèi)投資信心意外低于預(yù)期....................................................................................

7、..........................101.2.5CPI小幅抬升，通脹水平適中..............................................................................................................................101.2.6歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)：通脹高于預(yù)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)疲軟....................

8、............................................................................111.2.7日本經(jīng)濟(jì)：CPI高于預(yù)期，PMI景氣度持續(xù)低于榮枯線...............................................................................112.股票..........................

9、....................................................................................................................................................................122.1A股：震蕩調(diào)整122.2港股：震蕩調(diào)整132.3美股：高位震蕩153.債券..............

10、................................................................................................................................................................................163.1資金面整體寬松，財(cái)政政策和結(jié)構(gòu)性經(jīng)濟(jì)政策密集出臺(tái)...............

11、....................................................................163.2市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性處于寬松時(shí)點(diǎn)，銀行間質(zhì)押式回購(gòu)利率下行...................................................................................163.3貨幣政策邊際收斂，不同期限利率債收益率多數(shù)上升............

12、............................................................................173.4社融數(shù)據(jù)不及預(yù)期，信用債各期限收益率整體上升............................................................................................183.5短融信用利差延續(xù)收窄，中期信用利差小幅走

13、擴(kuò).................................................................................................183.65月債券市場(chǎng)展望.............................................................................................................

14、.................................................194.大宗商品194.1黃金............................................................................................................................................................

15、.............................................194.1.1黃金行情回顧：美指高位調(diào)整，黃金價(jià)格抬升..................................................................................................194.1.2黃金展望：避險(xiǎn)情緒升溫，配置價(jià)值凸顯.........................

16、..................................................................................204.2原油...................................................................................................................................

17、......................................................................204.2.1原油行情回顧：EIA原油庫(kù)存超預(yù)期大幅增加，油價(jià)短期回落...................................................................204.2.2原油展望：需求無放量基礎(chǔ)，原油無漲價(jià)支撐.....................

18、.............................................................................215.6月份大類資產(chǎn)配置建議................................................................................................................................

19、........................22圖44AAA級(jí)短融收益率月變動(dòng)（%）.............................................................................................................................................18圖45AAA級(jí)中票收益率月變動(dòng)（%）...............

20、..............................................................................................................................18圖461Y各等級(jí)短融信用利差走勢(shì)（單位，BP）.....................................................................

21、....................................................19圖475Y各等級(jí)中票信用利差走勢(shì)（單位，BP）.........................................................................................................................19圖48美元指數(shù)與黃金價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)反向變動(dòng)..

22、......................................................................................................................................20圖49SPDR黃金持倉(cāng)回落.......................................................................

23、...........................................................................................20圖50滬黃金期貨價(jià)格持續(xù)攀升.................................................................................................................

24、.........................................20圖51WTI原油價(jià)格短期回落................................................................................................................................................................21圖

25、52布倫特原油現(xiàn)價(jià)短期回落..........................................................................................................................................................21圖53美國(guó)EIA原油庫(kù)存變動(dòng)情況（萬桶）...............................

26、....................................................................................................21圖54OPEC持續(xù)減產(chǎn)...........................................................................................................

27、...................................................................22圖55美國(guó)商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存量...........................................................................................................................................

28、..........................22圖56大類資產(chǎn)配置建議........................................................................................................................................................................22圖57大類資產(chǎn)配置建議